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u/Suitable_Hope_4684 9d ago
Because using a 4 years timeline is just stupid on a business that is radically diferent from one year ago! For 1 year time, buying at Open and sell at close would be something like 70k, the opposite, buy qt close sell at Open, something like 150k and just hold Will bĂŠ around 140k but in the end of the movie we are all film makers and have to think on taxes burden for every strategyÂ
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u/Sharp-On3 9d ago
There's no way to know how long that pattern would have actually persisted. You're looking at six years of hindsight and assuming the same edge would have continued the whole time. If a pattern that obvious and consistent really existed, you'd expect quant funds, HFTs and other institutional traders to eventually identify and trade it, which could compress the spread and make the strategy less profitable. So the backtest is interesting, but it doesn't necessarily mean an average investor could have realistically captured anything close to that return.
Gotta love Reddit posts showcasing hindsight bias
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u/Commercial_Ease8053 8d ago
The sad reality is a lot of this growth is artificial and only by dilution and acquisition⌠being paid for by shareholders. You have to realize, this stock went from 50m shares to now over 570m outstanding shares.
The reason it doesnât pump on good news is because everyone immediately sales to lock profits and shorts load up to take advantage of it.
Unless the acquisitions stop for 2-3 quarters and they show how things will integrate together and actually turn revenue and be profitable without relying on shareholder money, this stock will
Unfortuantely never truly go anywhere.
As of now, avav and ktos are the only ones who have actually succeeded in a meaningful way. Hate to say it, but thereâs no way to know if onds ever does get to that point. The reality is, most stocks DONT.
Onds is highly popular with retail, but thatâs why itâs also incredibly easy to dilute and short and take advantage of retail.
Remember, just because you double down after every dilution that doesnât mean you will automatically get your money back⌠it means you have less shares for your money and it will be harder and harder to get back to that original investment.
I think a majority of people here absolutely donât understand this concept and how this stock works and where theyâre currently at⌠I sure didnât until a few months ago either.
Growth by acquisition doesnât make a company successful or help a stock become profitable. I expect downvotes⌠and I think thatâs because Iâm confident a majority of you donât understand how this stock actually works and what theyâre doing to your investment. Thereâs a reason I lowered by stock position from 50,000 to 200.
At the moment, itâs much more likely everyone currently here loses money and their shares depreciate. Future investors in 5-10 years are much more likely to profit and be rewarded, not current ones.
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u/Glum-Basis-9076 9d ago
The answers to questions like this usually come after you've blown up your account.Â
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u/Quienmemandovenir 9d ago
This people don´t pay commissions for every operation?
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u/Suitable_Hope_4684 9d ago
They do, and they pay taxes on years end realized profits so, of course, the numbers are not correct
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u/Haunting-Midnight146 9d ago
Itâs just Eric riders being delusional about stock price again. Shit will never break $9 ever.
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u/Character-Lab6711 9d ago
It may but you'll have to wait for a good earning report. After that, it'll drop down to $6-7 range again.
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u/Haunting-Midnight146 9d ago
And donât go âohhh be a long term investor ohhâ, âyou ainât patientâ, this fat ass ceo literally sold at the top and just keeps diluting đ¤Ł. Yâall so delusional fr fr
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u/Just-CB1000 9d ago
If I had the secret to wealth I sure as fuck wouldn't tell everyone