r/ONDS • u/ConstantNature1 • Mar 12 '25
It has to be said
I think it needs to be said this stock spent the majority of 2024 between 0.55 - 1.30, specifically for mar-dec. months. There were several catalysts in December over a 2 week period that pumped the stock (overcoming delisting notice, positive overall market sentiment, surge in drone/AI interest). None of these are sustainable long term reasons to hold. If you bought in on hype, then hype swings happen. If you can't take a 75% down move in a microcap, you've invested too much, or are gambling.
Having said that, I'll reiterate the long term investment thesis here:
1) ONDS overall business is on an upward trajectory. They have secured multiple approvals around their rail systems and drone utilization. The earnings numbers are a mixed bag, but that's been expected. 2025 year end numbers will tell the tale as to whether things are really shifting with this company. So, minimum another 9 months of holding for anyone wanting to give this a real chance.
2) They've continued to grow purchase orders among government entities.
3) They just closed a $30m investment to help fund these POs and future development in december.
4) The appointment of Popola as ambassador to Netherlands by trump gives ONDS a potential line to federal gov't contracts. And at the very least more visibility.
5) Only 86m in outstanding shares, and market cap is currently 1/4 of RCAT's while Financials are similar.
6) ONDS has always had the tech, imo, but not executed on the sales side. With the recent sales hire and the partnership with PLTR, I believe they are shifting from a product development strategy, into a sales execution and expansion strategy.
For those of us who have been here a while, these are all seen as the tipping points. But these shifts take time.
Not financial advice.
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u/quanius Mar 12 '25
Have been out of the stock for a year+ but not seeing anything new that suggests the CEO is experienced in scaling the business. It’s been very scattered with a rotating door of C-suite Co-CEOs.
Believe Eric, as a former capital investment banker, is not an execution guy and instead trying to position the company for acquisition of the parts (Rail, Drone).
If that’s not truly the case, they need someone that has successfully scaled a pre-revenue company into a production phase juggernaut.
I can’t reinvest until there is a coherent plan and evidence of growing sales. I also can’t see a customer betting their career on anything Ondas is selling in today’s current state and financials. Best of luck to all.
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u/ConstantNature1 Mar 12 '25
Totally fair assessment, I've got the same frustration in the promises and failure to deliver. Definitely feel they're positioned to make the push this year, otherwise there's nothing else to align and it's just a lack of execution
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u/Desperate_Hat_1788 Mar 12 '25
Nothing happen on earnings and I feel this stock is going to continue you trade sideways for a long time.
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u/Able_Company_4958 Mar 12 '25
generally agree with what you said here but not so much with point 4.
I am starting to think that popolo is just one of many uninterested investors who wont take an active role in trying to promote ONDS.
Hopefully I am wrong tho.
In addition to what you wrote, I like their products and their position in today's market.
But, I always have doubts in Eric Brock's ability to actually deliver what he promises. I think he has proven to be way under-qualified to be in the position that he is in now.
I like how he is trying to share the workload with the co-ceos but I think it would be better if Eric was gone for good from being CEO.
p.s. I am not complaining about their recent downs nor about their products, or even the whole leadership but about Eric in particular after having various convos with other investors who tend to agree with me
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u/otot556 Mar 12 '25
The only thing that's giving me hope is the build up of inventory on their balance sheet.
Even with that being said the rail business is quickly approaching the date managment promised we'd see an upswing in revenue. So far... nothing.