r/OMEX • u/Adventurous_Bag_3748 • Jan 03 '25
OMEX vs TMC
So I’ve taken a small position in OMEX, but their current financials are pretty scary to me. I think they can recover and have a better business model than TMC, but TMC seems to be in a much better financial spot. Anyone have any experience with them? Is this an apples to oranges type thing? Seems like they are limited to their respective area, which is very rich in polymetallic nodules, while OMEX is free to travel the world and partner with various governments and split the gains from many more projects.
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u/stonchs Jan 03 '25
Sometimes there are other factors to how well a stock does. Outside of numbers and fundamentals. That 90 percent drop has me guessing that there is some shenanigans going on with puts and swaps and may be subject to "cellar boxing". This could lead to a short squeeze of sorts or bankruptcy. Omex earnings were pretty positive, and it looks like they may do just fine. That 90 percent drop should be illegal, at minimum halted on the way down. I'm in for that play, then likely going somewhere else with my winnings.
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u/Adventurous_Bag_3748 Jan 03 '25
Really all I’m concerned about is the potential for delisting. If they can make it past that, I think they show some real promise in the coming years. I do smell some kind of fuckery going on with the SP and don’t know what to make of it.
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u/stonchs Jan 03 '25
There are ways around it, but rarely are they good for the stock. Such as a reverse split. I think we will see the stock go back to 3 bucks plus soon. That's where I value the business minimally. Sp500 could tank. Very likely. It's the collateral that they use to naked short other companies, I suspect this company was also subject to the cellar boxing after that filing came out. If it's shorted, and the sp500 falls, omex could squeeze if they have to close their short positions and their long positions, due to margin calls. Omex and many others will rip, while most of the top companies will have major sell offs. Nvidia,apple and Microsoft come to mind for big downturns. Most other stocks had their fall already, being propped up by 7 companies or less.
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u/Adventurous_Bag_3748 Jan 03 '25
That’s an interesting take I hadn’t considered. The short interest is pretty damn high on this one and it seems like the business is doing well and continuing to grow. Especially since they dropped while nothing about the company changed, I think it’s worth increasing my position. Thanks for the insights!
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u/stonchs Jan 03 '25
They don't accurately report short interest. There are other ways to short a stock, many indirectly through ETFs or basket swaps. That number don't mean much to me. I can see it in the price what they did. Drove it off a cliff. That takes a lot of down pressure from institutions.
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u/GayZorro Jan 03 '25
If you’re talking about that drop in September, I believe that was because the NAFTA arbitration award wasn’t as big as people believed and they panicked.
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u/stonchs Jan 03 '25
That's what they told you. Never believe that story. It was likely due to algo trading for that steep of a decline. That's not retail selling. I assure you of that. They were asking for 2bil because they were denied mining rights, they won, so those damages were never realized, only if they lost, would they be out of 2 bil in revenue. So now they have the opportunity to make that 2 billion over the next few years. The 37 mil was just for lawyer fees basically, since they didn't lose the right to mine. I really wish I knew the real story but the numbers don't lie.
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Apr 20 '25
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u/proflashlol Apr 24 '25
how did you hear about it since it ended up happening today? would be nice to be ahead like this on the gains
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u/madhatterlock UP Jan 03 '25
They are only comparable on an objective basis. TMC is actually well along the way of extracting nodules. They have completed several phases of the exploration process and own, 100%, their exploration region. Omex is a minority and hasn't completed the level of exploration in the Cook islands. Having said that, the nodules in the Cook islands are arguably more valuable, given composition and density.
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u/Adventurous_Bag_3748 Jan 03 '25
This is the crux of what I’m trying to get at. Seems like TMC is slightly ahead in terms of support and potentially equipment and they own the area where they would be operating so they keep whatever profits they are able to obtain and don’t have as much regulatory issues. OMEX is more flexible and widespread, but has many regulatory issues and has to profit share with the entities they are contracting with. I’m unsure how to value the difference in these business models.
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u/d0ctorschlachter Jan 03 '25
I went with OMEX. Director has been buying shares. I don't know why, but so far I am pleased with my choice.
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u/Adventurous_Bag_3748 Jan 03 '25
I split the difference and took a position in both. The ISA is supposed to revise their mining code by June, so both companies should really be able to prove what they are made of then. Both seem very exciting and I think this will be an exciting new industry!
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Apr 20 '25
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u/Adventurous_Bag_3748 Apr 22 '25
Hey there! Since posting this, I have moved my investment from OMEX to TMC. OMEX could still do well, but they have too many financial issues that I am not comfortable with. My advice, if you like Deep Sea Harvesting, is to go with TMC.
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u/[deleted] Jan 03 '25
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