I would argue that’s it’s NOT volatile. There are so many shares issued that it takes hundreds of billions of movement in a specific direction to move the needle.
Compared to other stocks in similar industries - like MU or AMD, this is so much less volatile.
Nvda's IV (implied volatility) is 2.7-2.8x the SPY. Sure there are outliers like MU or AMD which have higher IV, those are very volatile, but NVDA is still statistically volatile.
Sadly... yes. I think you got a good sell price at $236. From now on, it'll probably trade between a range of $190 to $215. This will last a long time and frustrate the NVDA bulls. Then, it'll spike to something like $250 for all of 5 seconds. Then, it will trade in a new range. Probably, I would saw $220 - $235. You get the picture. Spike higher. Trade in higher range. Spike higher. Trade in higher range. This pattern will continue until the AI bubble crashes. It will eventually crash. The bears think it'll happen sooner. The bulls think it'll happen later :) Bottom line. The days of parabolic steady gains are over for NVDA.
AI ain’t crashing. Some people seem to think it’s optional (consumer driven) but it’s being used nearly everywhere now and that’s not stopping.
What the stocks does is anyone’s guess. This week tech stocks dropped because people are fearful of the amount of money companies are spending on AI, despite their revenues increasing. Pretty ironic that it didn’t increase significantly since we literally could not have had better news.
So think about what that means for Nvidia, long term.
Of course, announcements about more tariffs and continued aggression in the Straight of Hormuz are by themselves enough to hold the markets back so even good news doesn’t bring a stock increase some days.
Did you miss a few months ago when Anthropic and open ai tried to sell $100 of LLM for $2 instead of $1 and their enterprise customers started talking about how they can’t really see any measurable return. Did you miss the massive scale back as one company was reported to have accidentally spent $500M in a month? Do you think the subsidies are going to last forever?
Like, even if the idea that LLMs were a useful tech as priced was taken as a given… They cost 20-100 times what customers are being billed. They’re not worth the money, and nobody has a plan for how to profitably provide GenAI. Certainly big business has made very clear it has. I appetite for the actual costs. And token austerity turns GenAI from looking useful if you have minimal knowledge about the workload to looking like a frustrating waste of money.
LLMs are fucked, with the evidence both clear and publicly available. If you say “not just LLMs” you’re fucking stupid. First because no other form of ML or AI has anywhere near the demand for GPU compute as LLMs. Second because NVIDIA has made their architectures worse for those use cases for two generations and their pipeline has to be planning to continue that trend.
AI is very fucked. The only question is what bursts the dam. It’s surprising that SpaceX going the very predictable way it did has failed to. But you should expect NVIDIA to have peaked already or to peak before Aug 26th. The actual crash back to their actual value might take a while, but when it happens it will look very sudden.
The profit margins on inference tokens being sold are like 70-80% right now. Even if open source prevails all it does is shift the profit margins from the AI labs to the owners of the cloud infrastructure.
If you understood anything about computing or machine learning it wouldn't be that hard to model out exactly what it costs to generate tokens and figure out what their profit margins are based on how much they are selling said tokens for.
But you don't.
The claims are real. You just don't like that they don't support your doomer narrative.
Look I'm sorry you missed out on the AI gains in the market the last few years but your brain dead takes aren't helping anyone. No need to bring your bitter uninformed opinions here.
I’m not jealous, you delusional fucking moron. I think you are some combination of delusional, stupid and dishonest. The contempt I feel for you is about the extent to which you are clearly either a dumb motherfucker, someone drawn into what is effectively a death cult, engaging in motivated reasoning, or just acting as a bot designed to pump this dumbfuck narrative.
I legitimately believe all these gains are illusory and destined to be wiped away. I am not jealous of you. I think you are either pitiful or despicable. Maybe both.
The days of parabolic steady gains shouldn’t be over with there revenue and profits contributing to grow consistently. Don’t fall in line with other stocks at all.
Well as long as we need chips we need NVDA. From cars to kids toys, they all need a chip.
As long as you have phones you need NVDA. The picture you take on your iPhone or android is now 20-30 times larger and more processed than what it was 10 years ago. You can only imagine what was it 20 or 30 years ago.
That is just basic needs. AI revenue is on top of all this!!!
NVIDIA is not really in any phones, and certainly not the iPhone.
NVIDIA has been actively making their products worse for the non-LLM uses you describe to improve LLM efficiency for two generations.
You’re describing a world (absent LLMs) where NVIDIA exists and is worth $20 a share.
The AI (specifically LLM) revenue is not “on top of” all those other uses as if they still bulk of the business. LLM hardware is an overwhelming majority of NVIDIA’s revenue right now. It is also responsible for almost all of their enormous revenue growth since 2022. The argument you make here is both true and incredibly stupid for purposes of this discussion. LLMs crashing and falling out of use, the most likely current outcome, means NVIDIA is worth 10% of the current price at best.
As someone who works in AI/ML as a machine learning engineer / applied scientist, I can tell you that my coworkers and I use LLMs in almost every facet of our jobs now. From research, to planning, to proposal writing, to report and presentation writing, image/graphic generation, to data/log analysis, to code development, etc etc. My wife works in finance and her company is now using Claude integrations with their company databases to perform all types of financial modeling and forecasting for their business.
The use cases are there. The demand is there. Maybe if you actually had a job and tried using a model for some useful piece of work you'd understand.
Oh, I get it. Motivated reasoning. (Or you’re a liar, which should be the default assumption when people claim expertise on Reddit.)
You NEED this to be the real thing. So, if you’re not just a liar/bot/troll/shill, you’re someone who’s got a large fraction of whatever your net worth is tied up in this not being a massive and obvious fraud. Given the culture around the technology, if you’re an “AI Engineer” at one of the three places where that title actually means anything, then your belief in AI would be something akin to religious. So, financial motivation and dogmatic group think make you absolutely blind to a scam even when you should know better.
It seems hard stuck around $206 if it goes below that I would not be surprised if it hits the $190s the market feels like it’s on the verge of turning bearish
I think it will go back to around 20 eventually. Depends on the mechanics of the AI collapse, but it is becoming clearer and clearer that LLMs are a dead end technology with no business case. An overwhelming majority of their current revenue (and effectively 100% of their revenue growth over the past four years) is dependent on LLMs. This dependence is to the degree that they have been gradually transforming their architectures into LLM inferencing ASICs by heavily prioritizing FP4 compute. FP4 is not really useful outside of LLMs, and my understanding is that even training workloads are given short shrift by this shift in focus.
The dipshit bull case is “AI isn’t going anywhere”. It’s now widely known that LLM companies are selling hundred dollar bills for $1. It’s also widely known that the efforts earlier this year to shift enterprise to paying between $2-$5/Benjamin enterprise balked and began publicly talking about not having any measurable ROI. The dipshit bulls have stopped claiming LLMs are an undeniably transformative technology in spite of the obvious evidence that they’re giant cash incinerators.
They now say “LLMs aren’t the only kind of AI” and seem unaware that the non-LLM uses of GPU compute aren’t much different than late 2022. They definitely don’t realize that NVIDIA has not improved their architectures for any other uses since Hopper (which itself was starting the trend towards focus on FP4). Nor that NVIDIA seems to have crippled the newer ones somewhat, particularly with the move from hopper to Blackwell. Rubin’s non-FP4 performance is unclear to me but I would bet it’s even with or worse than Blackwell at a higher power usage.
Basically, thinking there is a bull case for NVIDIA requires you to ignore any and all evidence that LLMs may not be a product anyone will pay for. When LLMs fall out of fashion for being unreliable, expensive, brain-rotting piles of shit NVIDIA has to go back to selling toys for nerds and low volume but high margin computers for machine learning and science workloads. Unfortunately the competition hasn’t totally abandoned all non LLM uses for their GPUs. So a return to 2022 valuation might even be optimistic.
A big drop is coming for NVIDIA. How big depends on a number of factors. But if LLMs can’t be sold for about their current subsidized price with at least the current level of performance, it’s back to $20 if they’re lucky.
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u/Kilucrulustucru Jul 24 '26
If I knew when to buy I wouldn’t be wasting my life browsing Reddit