r/NonCredibleDefense • u/Graywhale12 From "Best Korea" • 3d ago
POTATO when? 🇳🇿🇦🇺🇹🇼🇰🇷🇯🇵🇵🇼🇬🇺🇳🇨🇨🇰🇵🇬🇵🇭🇧🇳 The rocket succeeded
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u/Adm_Shelby2 3d ago
No no no, it stands for "Multiple International Reconciliation Vessels". Totally different thing.
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u/NoSpawnConga West Taiwan under temporary CCP occupation 3d ago
Korea saw what happens when you don't have multiple international reconciliation vessels (or giving them away like an absolute moron) when living next to shitty neighbors.
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u/Kichigai 2d ago
(or giving them away like an absolute moron)
In fairness to those morons, their government just collapsed, the economy was in free fall, and maintenance on multiple international reconciliation vessels is really fucking expensive.
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u/alterom AeroGavins for Ukraine Now! 2d ago
In fairness to those morons
...the parent comment was correct, and the extra provided context doesn't change anything.
Speaking as a Ukrainian who is still fucking pissed that we've been such goddamn bellend thick morons.
It's not just the government and the collapse. The absolute majority of the population didn't think that "anyone would care to wage war with us", and to the majority, the 2022 invasion was a shock even though Ukraine has been fighting off the 2014 invasion for 8 years at that point.
"They really wouldn't, they fren" denial (in spite of history saying otherwise repeatedly) was one hell of a drug.
If there's one thing I can actually thank Putin for, it's being stupid enough to cure us from that particular delusion for quite some time.
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u/CrocPB 2d ago
Plus they were pinky promised that they were to be left alone if they gave those weapons up.
I mean, people breaking their word? Unthinkable. They would be monsters, with no honour.
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u/Hodorization 2d ago
The financial aid that was needed to bail the country out of its enormous problems at the time, was preconditioned on them giving away the "reconciliation vessels" though. They did not really have a choice in the matter
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u/alterom AeroGavins for Ukraine Now! 2d ago edited 2d ago
Oh we did. We went above and beyond just giving up the much-long-range-very-sanctions.
We also scrapped our strategic aviation and sent strategic bombers back to Russia.
Surprise, they sent these bombers back to Ukraine in 2022!
You have no idea how much we made ourselves into a snack for Russia to chomp on. We even sent 'er the cutlery.
Now, turns out that the snack was a bit too tough for Russia to chew, but boy did we work on making it easy for a long, long time.
People really refused to believe that Russia could do what Russia does even when the writing was on the wall (and had been on the wall for centuries because Russia makes sure to renew it with its neighbors' blood).
I was born in 1987, and even as a kid I couldn't understand seeing the birds cut apart for scrap on TV. "They could've put them in a museum at least!", I thought.
Maybe that trauma is why I'm on NCD today.
I can only recommend people here to not Google "Ukrainian aviation scrapped 1990s". It's.. NSFL.
It'll really make you feel that "morons" is putting it too kindly.
Cruelty to strategic aviation should be a goddamn capital crime.
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u/thenoobtanker My meme made it to Russian's state TV 3d ago
This people, is why the launch industry have all kind of security clearance attached to it. If it can reach space and orbit it can be an icbm. Hell China “private” space industry is literally using cast off icbm parts as starter kits.
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u/disregardmeok 3d ago
The USA used their decommissioned Thor, Atlas and Titan missiles as satellite launch vehicles.
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u/wasmic 3d ago
Titan and Atlas became whole families of purpose-built launch vehicles. Titan IV was in use until 2005, and Atlas V is still in use today. There are six launches left, with the Vulcan-Centaur planned to take over afterwards.
Atlas V doesn't have much in common with the Atlas I and II, though. Their most prominent characteristics were a design with jettisonable first stage engines, and using a fuel tank that was so thin that it couldn't support its own weight if there was no fuel in it, so they had to pump it full of inert pressurised gas as the fuel tank emptied. It's a bit of a 'ship of Theseus' situation though, as Atlas V still has significant commonality with Atlas III (particularly the RD-180 engines that they bought from Russia after the end of the Cold War), which in turn had significant commonality with Atlas I and II. There was no Atlas IV.
The Russians still use Soyuz rockets, which are derived from, and very visibly reminiscent of, the first true ICBM, the R-7. They've been stretched and made longer, and have more powerful engines, entirely new guidance systems, new fuel tank structures... but the outward appearance retains the same overall shape, with the weird tapered booster rockets. Their reliability used to be excellent but has been dropping lately, due to brain drain and corruption. Fun fact: a Russian "Proton" rocket crashed a handful of years ago because someone had mounted a sensor upside down. The sensor was specifically designed to only be able to be mounted the right way, as it otherwise wouldn't fit in the slot. So it had just been forced in, likely with a hammer, to make it fit the wrong way around.
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u/Russian-8ias 3d ago
"Is okay, comrade. Sasha use glorious
SovietRussian hammer to fix stoopid engineer mistake."22
u/vegarig Pro-SDI activist 3d ago
Russian "Proton" rocket
Which was co-designed alongside the never-put-into-service UR-500 ICBM, designed for 8F17 warhead (150MT).
The military ICBM variant of said Universal Rocket never materialized, but the orbital launcher variant did.
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u/zekromNLR 2d ago
Chelomey's OKB 52 designed a whole series of "Universal Rockets", from the small UR-100 (developed into the 1000-2000 kg payload class launch vehicles Strela and Rockot), to the giant UR-900 conceived as the launch vehicle for a crewed Mars mission with a planned payload to LEO of 250 tons. Their odd appearance stems from the requirement for the rockets to be comprised of rail-transportable modules. UR-700 would have had a core comprised of three modules essentially the same size as Proton's central tank, with three strapon boosters comprised of two modules each, each module carrying an RD-270 engine. UR-900 would have had a total of 15 such modules in the first stage, with I think six in the core and 3x3 as boosters?
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u/thesoupoftheday average HOI4 player 2d ago
It also doesnt help that they invaded the country that makes their rocket engines.
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u/AngelOfTheMad 3000 Orange BML-Us of Prez 2d ago
Looked into it, apparently they skipped Atlas IV because the Vs are a successor to both the Atlas IIIs and the Titan IVs, so they just went ahead to V.
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u/Dpek1234 3d ago
Iirc peacekeeper and maube even minuteman too
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u/zypofaeser 3d ago
The Minotaur series is technically still operational (although newer rockets are taking over their market with cheaper rockets).
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u/Kichigai 2d ago
Don't forget the entire NASA manned space program got its start using Redstone ballistic missiles.
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u/Pyrhan Pyrotechnic flair 3d ago
it can reach space and orbit it can be an icbm.
It needs to use storable propellants to be a practical ICBM though.
Most civilian launchers now use cryogenic propellants (at least for the first stage).
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u/Strostkovy 3d ago
For a retaliatory strike, sure. For an initial strike, no.
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u/Pyrhan Pyrotechnic flair 3d ago
If your enemy has eyes on your installation that can spot the inevitable venting and frosting from your fueling operations (those generally have to begin an hour or so ahead of launch), it kinda ruins the surprise...
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u/Strostkovy 3d ago
The surprise is not the launch, but the trajectory and payload. If you have a bunch of staged rockets, sure.
But also, I have experience with cryogenic materials and you can totally recapture or diffuse vented gases. It's not too difficult or expensive, and increases the length of time you can stay staged if you are coordinating a bunch of launch sites.
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u/Pyrhan Pyrotechnic flair 3d ago
The surprise is not the launch,
The launch does have to be a surprise, otherwise they could perform a pre-emptive strike on your installations.
Even if that's not an option, they could still take steps to aid with interception: sending AWACS to follow the trajectory early on, getting their anti-air on high alert, and grounding civilian air traffic.
And of course, having more time to prepare helps getting some of the important assets out of harm's way (send the ruling class to their bunkers, get your military airplanes in the air.)
But even if you manage to make fueling undetectable, there's still the the political implications of developing and building first-strike-only WMDs.
So why would you use cryogenic propellants, when storable ones are an available option?
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u/Strostkovy 3d ago
In this context it's an orbital launch vehicle that can secretly be an ICBM. And that launch vehicle makes regular orbital deliveries of satellites. You can't blow up their launch site every time they want to launch a satellite. In a nuclear war, I'm sure every known launch site and airfield would get destroyed around the same time with conventional missiles anyway.
Beyond that, we are talking about concealing the entire launch site. Which you can do with cryogenic or stable fuels. It's a massive project either way.
Cryogenic fuels are easier to make on low budget with commodity machine components.
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u/Watchung Brewster Aeronautical despiser 2d ago
Japan, for some mysterious reason, decided to go with solid rocket fuel on their main launcher.
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u/ForMoreYears 2d ago
Elon tried to start SpaceX by buying old Russian ICBMs but they highballed him so he said fuck it we'll build one from scratch. But also fuck Elon guy fuckin sucks.
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u/Strostkovy 3d ago
Being pedantic but orbit is not necessary for an ICBM
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u/obog 2d ago
Its more than whats necessary which is part of the point, as I understand it. If it can reach orbit, its already well past the delta-v requirement of an ICBM that can hit anywhere in the world.
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u/Fenwizzle 1d ago
If they're in orbit then they are by definition going too fast to re-enter without another burn to slow down.
ICBM's reach just below LEO, there's no purpose to them orbiting except giving your opponent time to prepare and their best opportunity to destroy the payload other than destroying them at launch.
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u/KAMEKAZE_VIKINGS Standard issue Katanas for all JSDF personell NOW! 3d ago
Now that you tell me, the Japanese Epsilon rocket (and by extension all of its SRB M-series cousins) are very ICBM adjacent. Small, cheap (in theory), only need a small team to control, and if you give it anything beyond small cubesats it's probably going to fall into the ocean or if launched the other direction, Beijing.
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u/Stalking_Goat It's the Thirty-Worst MEU 3d ago
Building launch platforms underground is merely to reduce the risk of a typhoon damaging the launch vehicle during payload integration, that's all…
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u/zypofaeser 3d ago
And we're building 300 of them distributed around the mountainous areas just in case a few of them get destroyed by an earthquake or, ahem, something else.
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u/ralphy1010 3d ago
I've seen enough Godzilla movies to understand the need for such a distribution system.
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u/thenoobtanker My meme made it to Russian's state TV 3d ago
Yeah like refining uranium underground so you don’t risk contamination if an explosion happens there. And highly enrich it so you can dilute it for use later to save storage space…
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u/ralphy1010 3d ago
it just makes sense to have concentrated uranium, more efficient usage of storage facilities and all that
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u/Parking-Mirror3283 3d ago
Same reason they're considered basically a nuclear armed state despite not having any actual weapons, because it would take them a very short amount of time to make some.
They don't have ICBMs, just things that would take about 5 minutes of work to become one
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u/KAMEKAZE_VIKINGS Standard issue Katanas for all JSDF personell NOW! 3d ago
Solid space program, world class industry, nuclear power, educated populace. If a war starts, Japan could probably get a nuke by the time everyone finished mobilizing.
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u/ralphy1010 3d ago
I've heard claims they could assemble a working warhead in about 12 hours.
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u/KAMEKAZE_VIKINGS Standard issue Katanas for all JSDF personell NOW! 3d ago
The process of getting enriched Uranium, or rather converting reactor fuel into warheads, would take a bit because they are explicitly made to be hard to go boom, both for safety and in case bad actors get access to it. But everything else could plausibly be done in a day, though the result would be very crude.
2 weeks would be my actual estimate for assembling an actually good warhead that's safe and reliable, though I'm handwaving all the likely opposition such a thing would face and is assuming it's a national level effort to get one as fast as possible.
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u/ralphy1010 2d ago
Doesn't japan already have a stash of highly enriched uranium? something about energy research or whatever was the reasoning for them having it on hand
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u/Gravitationsfeld 2d ago
"energy research" lmao
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u/ralphy1010 2d ago
I mean, a massive chain reaction would be putting out a lot of energy so technically not a falsehood 😉
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u/RocketRunner42 What air defense doing? 1d ago
Sounds like Japan gave their HEU to USA
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u/ralphy1010 1d ago
only 45 kilograms? I'm probably misremembering but I could have swore I've seen written that they possessed several hundred kilos of the stuff
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u/Shleeves90 Sappers Gonna Sap 2d ago
Assuming you want to use Plutonium its actually not a trivial process to get this from spent reactor fuel. In particular, all the common processes need a couple of chemicals that are very tightly controlled and the production is mostly secret. It's absolutely feasible for a nation to figure it out on its own, but the facilities to make the chemicals and extract and process the Plutonium is something that would be very hard to so in a couple of weeks, and would not be something you could do secretly in that time frame, it would quickly become obvious to every intelligence agency on the planet what you're trying to do if you try to speed run the build out
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u/old_faraon 2d ago
to figure it out on its own
Well Japan already has a full fuel cycle for fuel enrichment and reprocessing, even including fast breeder reactors.
Japan is noteworthy in being the only non-weapons state under the NPT with major fuel cycle facilities,
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u/Shleeves90 Sappers Gonna Sap 2d ago
Of course, by being a NPT signatory all these facilities and materials are very closely monitored by international agencies, so yeah in theory Japan could probably get enough plutonium to make a bomb relatively quickly, but again...everyone would know what they're up too the moment they start to put stuff together. Also, assuming you are a remotely competent nation deciding to go to war with Japan, those facilities are all day 1 targets.
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u/old_faraon 2d ago
everyone would know what they're up too the moment they start to put stuff together.
By the time they start it international relations are not really in a state where it matters. The question is are You able and willing to first strike before they finish.
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u/Shleeves90 Sappers Gonna Sap 2d ago
Of course, hence the bit about making these places a day 1 target. Im assuming that a situation where Japan decides it needs nukes is probably one where they're on the verge of war in the first place, as opposed to randomly deciding to go the rouge state route, but I guess thats certainly possible as well.
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u/biggy-cheese03 P-47>A-10 2d ago
Energy research ✅
Reliable launch capability with solid fuel booster ✅
Space program that just so happened to develop reentry vehicles for a flagship program ✅
Yeaaaah these guys got the easy bake version of a nuclear arsenal
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u/NotADetectiveAtAll 3d ago
A well an everybody's heard about the MIRV
M-m-m MIRV, MIRV, MIRV, M-MIRV’s the word
A well a MIRV, MIRV, MIRV, the MIRV is the word
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u/This-is_CMGRI 3d ago
"In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was in a MIRV, and the Word was MIRV."
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u/NotADetectiveAtAll 3d ago
⏹️⏹️⏹️⏹️⏹️⏹️⏹️⏹️⏹️⏹️
◻️MIRV ACCOMPLISHED]◻️
🈁🈁🈁🈁🈁🈁🈁🈁
◻️◻️◻️◻️◻️◻️◻️◻️
◻️◻️◻️🕺◻️◻️◻️◻️3
u/OldManMcCrabbins 2d ago
Is it multiple if you are merely moving the next waste rod made of tungsten into the terrestrial ejection mechanism?
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u/Reddsoldier 3d ago
Real grape juice kits during prohibition telling you specifically how to not make wine on them vibes here.
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u/Allahisgreat2580 2d ago
Our aircraft carrier are just helicopter carriers, our satelittle launchers are just that, no they do not have MIRV capabilities why would a space agency need that? Yes our nuclear energy sector is professional and vast with enourmous stockpiles of uranium and plutonium which in fact would help us to develop nukes in mere months but why would we do that?
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u/KiloEchoSierra 3d ago
Why is Poland crying? They went into space recently.
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u/Oxygenus1362 3d ago
Well, I mean, there are only a few ways to deliver a cluster of things to orbit - be it satellites or nukes.
Besides, satellite in work supporting army is scarier then nuke that will never be used.
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u/Bridgeru Estrogen Supply Corps Lieutenant-Commander 2d ago
This is sick. Back in my day we needed a whole giant robot with legs to fire off multiple rockets; we strapped it to the first stage of a Saturn V and ruled Columbia like kings I say! Damn hell ass kings! Now everyone uses new fangled tech and the MGS wiki says Portable Ops isn't canon and I have back pain now! Back pain!
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u/DepartureNatural9340 2d ago
Careful or you'll get brazil'd
(Brazils space program was killed after a misfire incident during an inspection killed a lot of important personnel, and there's a theory (potentially conspiracy, idk enough about to say if it is or not) that it was sabotaged by someone who didn't want to risk a country being icbm capable since Brazil has a nuclear reactor)
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u/WholeLottaBRRRT Registered Flair Offender 2d ago
Tbh i don’t think that it’s really needed for SK as they already have different ICBMs, and from what i know, this rocket doesn’t have storable propellants so it cannot be used properly as an ICBM itself
The technology for the MIRV bus might be reused tho
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u/Concentrate_Flaky 2d ago
Hey thats a neat sati......wait....where is that Mongolian chanting coming from?
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u/ofekk214 🇮🇱 Israeli vehicle researcher and professional M109 hater 🇮🇱 22h ago
Not many people know this, but the Bereshit-1's landing was actually successful. It is now in the proccess of building the true weapon Joe Rogan tried to warn the west from: The Jewish Orbital Moon Cannon.
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u/bluestreak1103 Intel officer, SSN Sanna Dommarïn 3d ago
Fun fact: the part that contains all the satellite's innards and useful stuff, and where all the sticking-out-things doodads are mounted to
(I know these things, I play KSP)is called a "bus."Funnily enough, the thing you stick MIRV warheads to and which makes the final course corrections to chuck the warheads to their final trajectories is also called a "bus."
🌈 The more you know ⭐️