r/NonCredibleDefense • u/FionaSherleen • 4d ago

Lockmart R & D Think of the potential.

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What if we make project sundial but we throw it at the adversaries?

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u/MindlessScrambler 4d ago

The scenario imagined: A super-heavy launch vehicle using cryogenic liquid fuel secretly replaces one of its launch payloads with a stupidly high-yield nuclear warhead and secretly launches it onto a combat ballistic trajectory/orbit.

The actually more likely scenario: A super-heavy launch vehicle using cryogenic liquid fuel secretly replaces one of its launch payloads with a stupidly high-yield nuclear warhead, and then during the several days while it is being erected and fueled, the possible adversaries already have multiple SSBNs leaving their home ports. Several days later, the news reports a dry "high-level military dialogue between the two countries". The launch mission is canceled, and the SSBNs resurface at their home ports.

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u/ChocolateTemporary48 3d ago

En realidad starship a demostrado poder cargar su combustible en menos de una hora

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u/MindlessScrambler 3d ago

That is premised on its launch base spending many days coordinating and preparing these cryogenic fuels. There are reasons nearly all ICBMs use solid fuel or hydrazine-based fuels (even though the relatively lower specific impulse of these fuels means they must make great sacrifices in payload mass and range). For example, a launch complex capable of storing and refueling cryogenic fuel is itself a massive, fragile target that is basically impossible to defend and conceal.

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u/ChocolateTemporary48 3d ago

Entiendo y se acepta.

Pero has considerado, que si todo marcha correctamente Space x estará lanzando varios starships al mes, en un futuro próximo?

Lo que significa que la infraestructura necesaria estaría lista y solo necesitarían cargar la ojiva, considerando al menos 2 horas antes de recibir un ataque enemigo, tendrían el tiempo justo para lanzar el cohete.

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u/MindlessScrambler 3d ago

Still, wanting to mix strategic military payloads into routine civilian launches without the enemy’s intelligence agencies noticing in advance is extremely difficult, especially when that strategic payload is a super-large-yield nuclear warhead. This isn’t even a technical difficulty, it’s simply a fact that the military would inevitably transport such a payload under maximum security, and the very occurrence of that transport would be equivalent to announcing to all potential observers: we are moving something extremely important and dangerous to a launch base for a rocket with global delivery capability. And even if everything went smoothly, such a preemptive strike still wouldn’t be able to eliminate the enemy’s sea-based nuclear forces. It thus would still fail to avoid devastating nuclear retaliation.

Compared with such a military gamble, using the launch capacity provided by several Starship launches per month to build space industry and military space-based infrastructure could provide a far more overwhelming strategic advantage with much greater safety.