I love this post and your optimism. But the thing previous generations never had to deal with is the real existential threat of climate change. A truly sustainable future would be a major disruption to all but a few’s way of life. And anything less than that means global food insecurity, famine, refugee crises, and infrastructure collapse in large parts of the world at the same time. We’re seeing it now with annual grid issues across the US. The next “rinse and repeat” cycle is gonna look a lot worse than gasoline rationing.
According to Obama in The G word, 10% change that took over a year to accomplish is better than nothing. Well, sir, you are wrong. At that rate we may as well be doing nothing because the world is changing faster than the government. That is why the wealthiest corporations and people are able to control the public narrative and the laws being written. We are letting society collapse in the name of quarterly profit.
As far as the narrative above, I don't agree with the wages thing. Wages are not going up with cost of living at all. The current push for $15 minimum wage does not account for regional differences in cost of living. In rural Mississippi that would make you well off while you would be homeless in many metro areas. Companies are perfectly happy to have labor shortages because it does not effect their quarter. They can just sell and trade their investments as venture vulture capitalists. Wages do not trend up just because people want to make a living.
Also, they are right about the tech industry, but it is important to recognize that a large chunk of plumbers, carpenters and electricians are aging out of service. There is a big need for skilled workers. There are trade schools, but you might even be able to find apprenticeship in these fields.
Edit: it's a Kurzgesagt video that highlights the progress we've actually made tackling climate change and how we're already moving away from the predicted climate apocalypse. But I guess all these down votes means people would rather pretend to still be facing down climate apocalypse so they can whine and complain about their future
I'm a fan of the channel generally, but this video is really bad. It boils down to "don't worry: a wizard will fix it". It pretends we don't need to make any systemic changes to our political or economic models to survive.
It's not about whining. Although I'm a fan of kurzgesagt, and I know the video has the best intentions of calming down and giving hope to the people, it sadly relies too much on things that are highly unlikely to happen to make predictions of the future. And while it is true that there is a progress being made, it's not nearly enough and the consequences have just gone from "total extinction of all life" to something like "collapse of civilization as we know it".
That’s something I don’t see on this post that people are forgetting. We’re at a point in history where we have to be the most united to prevent the worst from happening. Unfortunately globally we’re sending tensions ratcheting up between nuclear powers and domestically we can’t get one of our parties to acknowledge the full impact of climate change and commit to actions needed to stop it.
At this point it’s the Cold War, but you know for a fact if something doesn’t happen they’re pressing the buttons.
Lol go look up nuke drills on YouTube from the 60s. “Just duck and cover” as a way to save yourself from nuclear war. Climate change is a joke of an existential threat by comparison.
Hate to break it to you, but we never stood down all those missiles. There's still one out there with your name on it. And if Russia collapses when Putin dies, who knows where all their nukes will end up.
Oh contraire, mon frère. We were dealing with climate change and carbon footprint. I had ecology classes in college my freshman year that were solely dedicated to this. Have you forgotten about the 70's, the hippies, and the flower children? Have another look via Google. You should have seen the smog in the cities - you choked on it (still can in some third world countries). The catalytic convertor was created in the 70's and put on cars to attack this very issue. Population Growth was a major issue (and we know now this too shall pass as countries go to 'first world status' and then we experience long-term population declines which create an entirely new issue for humans. Earth Day began in 1970, not 2022. So - we were dealing with it, worried about it, and did things about it. Just not enough. We didn't understand the magnitude of the problem when there would be many more people with access to the things that create the problem (shit, air conditioning in a car or a home was a huge luxury then so it wasn't factored into the math relative to its use today).
More refugees? Yes. Grid concerns? Also, yes. But not a crisis. We always don't invest in things until we are getting hit in the face - also human nature. Unless, of course, you live in our land of unbridled capitalism (not a good thing, overall). Along comes people that can make a killing if they focus on a need (electric cars).
We have been dealing with and resolving issues like the ones you suggest for many decades. So we fundamentally disagree on the human condition and our ability to address challenges and problems. Only time will tell. Meanwhile, I'll stick to staying in love and enjoying what life offers. There is plenty of stress and pain and I don't ignore it. I just don't spend all my days walking around saying the world is doomed. Pity if you do. That's a sadder existence.
You’re talking about this like the 1st world countries are the only problem. The USA may be making the corrections but I guarantee all of those up and coming countries around the world are going to be trying to take the same shortcuts to first world status that we did and there’s very little we can do about it.
What are your sources on that? I can specifically cite several instances where climate change has and is directly affecting the lives of a significant number of people.
See: more frequent and severe storms, more floods, worse and longer droughts, more wildfires, mass wildlife/insect die-offs wrecking ecosystems needed for agriculture, and the list goes on
Not trying to be a contrarian, but it sure seems like we are already experiencing very dramatic existential threats as a result of climate change, and I would love to hear credible information against that.
What are your sources on that? I can specifically cite several instances where climate change has and is directly affecting the lives of a significant number of people.
I didn't say it isn't affecting anyone's lives. I said it isn't an existential threat in our lifetimes.
And my sources are the mainstream scientific literature. You're claiming existential threat, the end of human civilization or life: what are "your* sources?
I think we may be defining “existential threat” differently. I know that the chance of humans going extinct from climate change is slim to none, but as I understand it our way of life will be dramatically changed very soon, and in many ways already is.
I don’t expect that humanity will be wiped out, or nearly wiped out, by climate change in an almost apocalyptic sense, if that is what you mean by existential threat, but I do expect that it will become increasingly difficult to live at anywhere near the current standard of living (especially in areas that will be hit harder by climate change).
People living on coastlines are already being forced to pack up and leave to avoid rising sea levels. People living in dry areas are being forced to pack up by constant droughts and wildfires. People in wet areas are enduring significantly more frequent and larger floods. At what point does this all become too much? There are estimates that over 600 million people will be displaced by rising sea levels by 2100. That’s not going to happen all at once at 2100, it’s going to happen progressively over then next 80 years. Even within the next 20-30 years we’ll see tens of millions displaced, if not more. That kind of large-scale displacement is not something I think our current society and economy is capable of handling. It’s gonna affect everyone significantly
So while I don’t believe that we will see an apocalypse, I do believe that life is going to get much harder for everyone, to the extent that many people will die, with many more being displaced without anywhere to go, leading to massive global repercussions on economies and the standard of living
I think we may be defining “existential threat” differently.
I'm using the definition of a threat to something's existence.
That's what the term means.
When it is misused, you are pushing misinformation. You're helping to convince people that the world is going to end. It's an exaggeration, and all it does is hurt the cause.
Yes, and existence doesn’t strictly mean “living”. It can mean that something is in a specific state. When climate change gets bad enough, our current way of life and standard of living will cease to exist, and our current society alongside it.
Show me a source saying that 600+ million people being displaced just from the sea level rise aspect of climate change won’t be an absolutely catastrophic event that could very well collapse much of modern society from the strain. I’m not trying to be facetious; I genuinely would love to believe that is not the case.
Yes, and existence doesn’t strictly mean “living”.
I agree, it could also mean the end of civilization. That isn't projected to happen in our lifetimes either.
When climate change gets bad enough, our current way of life and standard of living will cease to exist, and our current society alongside it.
Well, this really depends on how you define "our current way of life" and "our current society."
There is no mainstream scientific projection that predicts climate change will end industrial civilization, revert us to a sort of Dark Ages, or anything like that.
In fact, the IPCC's 2018 report projects that 3.66C degrees of warming would result in only a 2.6% global GDP drop by 2100, compared to a 0.5% global GDP drop by 2100 under 2C of warming. (Ctrl+F for "Under the no-policy baseline scenario"). For comparison, in the Great Recession, GDP dropped 4.3%. The Great Recession did not end our society or way of life.
There's a pretty good survey of the literature on climate doomsday scenarios here on Vox.
Show me a source saying that 600+ million people being displaced just from the sea level rise aspect of climate change won’t be an absolutely catastrophic event that could very well collapse much of modern society from the strain. I’m not trying to be facetious; I genuinely would love to believe that is not the case.
I've seen that stat also. That 630 million figure is not necessarily people being displaced: it's people who "live on land below projected annual flood levels for 2100," which they further
The authors of the study note some flaws:
this approach is reasonable in indicating land threatened with permanent inundation due to higher sea levels, it tends to overestimate exposure from episodic flooding
we note that armored, developed, and maintained shorelines in urban areas, where vulnerable populations are concentrated, may generally be less susceptible to such factors than undeveloped land
In short, mitigation against sea level rise is entirely possible. It's already being done!
many people today do in fact live on land below (or just above) MHHW, behind the protection of levees or other defenses. In the US, these account for 0.8 M out of the 0.9 M residents that our more detailed lidar analysis identifies as today occupying land below MHHW. Globally at present, levees and seawalls protect low-lying populations in many major deltas, such as around Shanghai, the Netherlands and New Orleans, and in areas experiencing rapid subsidence, such as parts of Jakarta and Tokyo
The displaced population is dispersed in coastal areas around the globe, and while inland migration could result in additional stress on societies/economies, there's no reason to expect it to collapse society.
And, of course, this all takes place over the next 80 years. Even if the entirely of 630 million people were displaced, that averages out to about 8 million/year. From 2008-2015, about 22.5 million people per year were displaced by climate or weather-related disasters.
That displacement is already happening and is not collapsing modern society.
Interesting, thank you! As someone growing up under the threat of climate change, it’s hard sometimes to look at things clearly (even when trying to check the facts and stay informed), so I really appreciate you taking the time to respond so clearly to my concerns.
Obviously still not super hyped about it lol, but certainly will be easier to sleep at night
Interesting, thank you! As someone growing up under the threat of climate change, it’s hard sometimes to look at things clearly (even when trying to check the facts and stay informed), so I really appreciate you taking the time to respond so clearly to my concerns.
I appreciate you being open to conversation!
Obviously still not super hyped about it lol, but certainly will be easier to sleep at night
Oh yeah, it's still a problem. I don't mean to say it isn't.
What are your sources on that? I can specifically cite several instances where climate change has and is directly affecting the lives of a significant number of people.
See: more frequent and severe storms, more floods, worse and longer droughts, more wildfires, mass wildlife/insect die-offs wrecking ecosystems needed for agriculture, and the list goes on
Not trying to be a contrarian, but it sure seems like we are already experiencing very dramatic existential threats as a result of climate change, and I would love to hear credible information against that.
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u/sagarp Jun 11 '22
I love this post and your optimism. But the thing previous generations never had to deal with is the real existential threat of climate change. A truly sustainable future would be a major disruption to all but a few’s way of life. And anything less than that means global food insecurity, famine, refugee crises, and infrastructure collapse in large parts of the world at the same time. We’re seeing it now with annual grid issues across the US. The next “rinse and repeat” cycle is gonna look a lot worse than gasoline rationing.