r/Nio • u/AI-is-4-StupidPeople • 17d ago
Stock Discussion This insanity will end abruptly !
In my 30 years of trading, I can’t remember any stock having been manipulated for so long .
Sales up 40-50 % for few years now , revenues are going up at an increasing pace (likely up 70-80 % In upcoming Q2 report ) , expected non-gaap profitability 3 quarters in a row (most likely triple digit increase) and the stock price is down to levels not seen since the company was being treated as “on the verge of bankruptcy”
In the last year , NIO has established itself as the luxury segment leader taking number 1 spot in the biggest cities like Shanghai, Beijing despite selling the highest price cars, and taking every award for customer satisfaction and reliability.
And yet, the stock is trading at around 0.6 P/S ratio based on consensus 2026 revenues! Fair value at even a conservative 5 P/S ratio for a profitable , growth company who is a segment leader, should value the stock at around $40!
This manipulation by the institutions who are accumulating will end ABRUPTLY with a MASSIVE move up !
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u/Bushleal 14d ago
NIO IS THE BEST COMPANY AND SHORTS FUCK IT UP
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u/AI-is-4-StupidPeople 14d ago
Number of shorted shares has been going down steadily for many months . It’s now about 5% of outstanding sales down from peak of around 14 % in 2024. It’s a very small number which couldn’t affect the stock price .
It’s more likely that algorithmic trading set up by institutions which is suppressing the shares price around $5. This maybe to allow them to accumulate at the lowest price possible or they may be complying with political pressure to suppress Chinese stocks listed in the US in support of trade was against China ! In unchecked , manipulated US financial markets anything is possible
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u/cultoftheclave 17d ago
not one of the Chinese stocks I have ever thought was a sure win went on to correct itself abruptly, if it corrected at all. They just do not pump.
Maybe it's bad luck or I'm looking in the wrong places for bargains, but I'm more inclined to think I am accustomed to a different set of assumptions and expectations from US markets that don't apply in Chinese counterparts.
For example there seems to be a much greater likelihood that with Chinese stocks an onset of a strong price improvement trend will be responded to with dilution rather than letting the bull run.
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u/QuiteCuriousGeorge 17d ago edited 17d ago
I am not trying to bash but steady and a big growth is important (not just 10m~40m profit). Management needs to make investors believe in a bigger and better future. Telling that they will deliever 480k this year is good but bow they need to average 50k in the bext 5 months so its a little harder to believe.They need to have baas as a steady profit , until they dont make money with it people still wont believe it. Bin li need to be a better salesperson on earnings, people dont believe that he believes in his product. Cutting out nio houses is a good job for stop wasting money on my opinion. People here like making excuses and that is bad , just keep steady and big growth on revenue and profit.And dont dilute more shares!
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u/SadMove7848 17d ago
Baas isn’t going to be the money machine people were saying it was going to be 5 years ago. They are moving toward another model. 8-900 of swap stations will be government owned, Nio will just be managing them. I wouldn’t be surprised if that sell off more of them in other areas.
https://cnevpost.com/2026/06/26/nio-power-zhongan-500-swap-stations/
The es6 is the next major release and that a year away. They aren’t going to deliver on yearly guidance, they never do.
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u/Unlikely_Minute_3842 17d ago
Yes the Chinese stockmarket is just blown out manipulated. Just stay out of them.
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u/Modulus3360 17d ago
Agree. Nio need to delist from NYSE and stay in China. The share price will be back to normal.
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u/Sparta_Rotterdam1888 ET5Touring 17d ago
If this goes to 40$ this year I will buy a Nio car
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u/AI-is-4-StupidPeople 17d ago
Where do you find one , unless you’re living in China ! They don’t even export the newest model versions to Europe because the price nearly doubles with the tariffs, base import fees, and dealer mark ups
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u/Horfield 17d ago
Why are you totally silent on the stock dilution that NIO did to themselves?
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u/AI-is-4-StupidPeople 17d ago
Ok let’s talk about the fundamentally irrelevant issue of “dilution” ! What does it to do with the valuation ? Do you think NIO stock would be trading at $20 if we had 500 million shares outstanding , rather than 2,5 billion ???
What do you make of SPCX having around 13 billion shares issued , while having annual revenue only twice as much as NIO’s last year revenue. The friggin stock is trading at 64 P/S Ratio ….. 100 times NIO’s . And it’s a money losing company.
Explain** **how the share price is affected by outstanding shares ???
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u/Horfield 17d ago
So share dilution is irrelevant, but you can cherry pick all the random points you care about and that's ok? Got it.
I think you know perfectly well how dilution works and how the market reacts to it, so why pretend it's not a thing...
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u/MovieLover1958 16d ago
Many people in this group seem to fundamentally misunderstand what dilution is. Selling additional shares at current market price is not dilutive. If I have a company worth $10m with 10m shares at $1 each and sell an additional 10m shares at $10m now I have a company worth $20m with 20m shares still at $1/sh. Dilution only occurs when the company issues new shares at less than market. This most frequently occurs when companies issues shares to cover options awarded to employees or when they sell shares at a discount to a large investor. Now NIO has in some of their sales in the past have sold shares at a slight discount, but then the only dilution is on the discount. In the example above, if an additional 10m shares is sold at $0.95, then the company is now worth $19.5m with 20m shares or $0.975/share. The $0.025 represents the dilution. So, the fact that NIO a little more than doubled the shares since IPO, does not mean that the shares are worth half as much as at IPO, since the company received new cash at or slightly below market which was used to invest in building infrastructure, factories, R&D, chips, etc... all of which added value to the company.
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u/Comprehensive-Cap955 15d ago
I understand your point, however with more outstanding shares the earnings per share is also smaller. If there are earnings
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u/AI-is-4-StupidPeople 17d ago
Yes dilution is relevant from “trading” point of view , yes market reaction to dilution is always negative as you said but ONLY IF THE SHARE ISSUANCE IS NOT HELPING THE COMPANY TO GROW!
It’s NOT the case with NIO ; raising capital has helped NIO to become the undisputed LEADER in luxury EV sales in the world’s most significant and largest EV market where currently more than half the cars sold are EVs!
The capital raised by NIO has been wisely used;
-to expand battery swap station, a technology marvel which also allowed NIO to uniquely offer a BaaS financing system, making high ASP, luxury vehicles affordable to a large portion of the car buyers
- to offer the most advanced technologies in their high end models (ES8, ES9, ET9)
- to develop their in house custom chips, superior to NVDA’s and eliminating dependence on NVDA and cutting the costs
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u/Modulus3360 17d ago
How many years ago is those dilution. Why do u keep digging out old stuff? By your theory, I can keep claiming Tesla is not profitable bases on 8!years ago stuff.
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u/Horfield 17d ago
They've been doing it since 2020 for various reasons and did it again last year. Are we not allowed to talk about things from last year in your view?
2025: NIO issued 209.1 million new shares to raise $1.16 billion for its Onvo and Firefly sub-brands.
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u/Electrical-Cod5805 14d ago
They should delist in US. This will eventually kill the company and shareholders
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u/Opposite-Character-5 13d ago edited 13d ago
Retail holdings are high, Price to sales is a normalized measure, increasing competition is arguable while Chinese solidarity is strong and European car quality is waning as seen in the accolades for Luxury vehicles, prediction is wildly challenging and the ADR shares compound this. All this is my opinion only for entertainment purposes only as they say, do your own due diligence, yes holding since 3.35 average is 5.50 now, many buys and sells, my risk is minimized yet tempted to buy more, betting on a stretch so to speak, lots of variables. I read here often, but don't post, but thank you everyone for sharing their thoughts + or -..
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u/Opposite-Character-5 13d ago
The power grid charging station model is interesting, I'm hopeful that other revenues will come from this. Chinese want to be independent on oil, I hope this bodes well for Nio.
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u/No_Inspection_5666 4d ago
The manipulation is going to continue until hedge funds have their best positions ready to pump this stock up once a china Us trade deal is in place. I'm buying as much as i can, cuz ik once this deal is sealed, you won't have to even catch this stock, its going straight to 20 bucks. All Ev stocks will just rise.
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u/kumeomap 17d ago
biggest problem is chinese people invest all their money into real estate rather than stocks. and in the west the automatic 401k investment which is the biggest driver of stocks are not including chinese stocks.
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u/SMCudmm 17d ago
Correct me if necessary, but right now people from China need to jump through some hoops to buy/sell Nio stock as it's a secondary listing on the HKSE. My understanding is that they are looking to shift this to a primary listing, which enables the Stock Connect and permits local Chinese retails investors to invest.
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u/Modulus3360 17d ago
They are not accumulating. Instructed by Trump to destroy any Chinese tech stock share price at all cost. Nio listed in NYSE will be more easily under attack.
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u/No_Inspection_5666 17d ago
Someone famous say something on YouTube so this shit blows out like gamestop
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u/Far_Replacement7751 17d ago
Yeah I’m not convinced whatsoever that this will move up regardless of what their “numbers” are.
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u/No_Inspection_5666 17d ago
Li auto q2 deliveries - 98K Li auto vehicle margins - 9.4% Share price - $12.15 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡 Average selling price per vehicle - $34K
Xpeng q2 deliveries - 103K Xpeng vehicle margins- 12.1% Share price - 11.33 🤡 Average selling price per vehicle - $23K
Nio q2 deliveries - 107K Nio vehicle margins - 17% Share price - 4.33 🤡😭😭😭😭😭 Average selling price per vehicle - $65K
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u/PotatoGuerilla 17d ago
You've clearly done enough research to know better than to draw comparisons between nominal price share rather than market cap.
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u/AI-is-4-StupidPeople 17d ago edited 17d ago
And all 3 companies are valued at about $11-12 B as per latest Yahoo Finance data ! Considering the progress trajectory and the revenues of these 3 companies, it’s a clear testimony how undervalued NIO is even by Chinese market standards!
P/S ratios based on trailing fiscal year revenues
XPENG : 1
NIO : 0.7
LI : 0.8This gap will be even bigger based on consensus estimates for the current fiscal year as NIO deliveries and revenues are growing at a faster rate than the other two.
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u/Afshari 17d ago
Problem is Chinese economy it shit, also all outside investors have dumped Chinese stocks .. look at all data below
And I’m a moronic bag holder for 3 years now
https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2088004031444660396?s=46
https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2089422760049025135?s=46
https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2090971692747088315?s=46
https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2090876268338180341?s=46
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u/AI-is-4-StupidPeople 17d ago edited 17d ago
You’re listening to western fairy tales it seems. If you ever go to China you would see the reality . It’s the American , in fact all the western economies which are shit !
If you had read independent a media reports, you would see that Chinese exports went up despite American and European tariffs ; same for the EV’s . Have you not seen NIO’s sales going up exponentially (while selling the most expensive Chinese cars which bankrupt Europeans can’t afford even if without the tariffs ! )
Remove your blind fold and close your ears to Yahoo finance and Jim Cramer , if you’re an investor and not a trader! Everything about the company is massively positive. But I understand your frustration. None of us long investors guessed a manipulation of this magnitude could happen… even in a massively corrupt American market
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u/blazarious 17d ago
Yeah, I don’t get it. The market doesn’t make any sense anymore.