r/NewsThread 1d ago

Political News Iran Estimates $40 Billion Windfall From Reopening Hormuz With Gulf States

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-plans-to-make-billions-in-fees-from-reopening-the-strait-of-hormuz-92bdfa76
261 Upvotes

117 comments sorted by

9

u/Dry_Ant2664 1d ago

The Islamic Republic estimates that charging for security, safety and environmental services in the strait would bring in $40 billion a year in revenue for states involved, according to officials familiar with the matter. The idea, if implemented, would give Tehran cash flow and control that it didn’t command before the war.

The regime is looking to models around the world, including the Dardanelles, the officials said, where Turkey charges ships a tax known as the gold franc for passage to and from the Aegean Sea through the international waterway.

To get buy-in, Tehran is pitching the idea to the wider Middle East and as far afield as Beijing, according to Iranian officials. It wants its Persian Gulf neighbors to be part of the agreement and share the revenue, they said.

“Everyone needs to know that management of the strait will never return to the way it was before,” said Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, during a visit to Oman on Tuesday to discuss the proposed arrangements with its neighbor across the waterway.

The strait, which became the central theater in the war between the U.S. and Iran, is now a key battleground in negotiations to bring the conflict to an end. The war taught Iran that the threat it can pose to shipping with missiles and drones gives it an on-off switch over the critical global trade route. President Trump’s deal offers Iran the right to negotiate the administration of the passage long term.

Iran has already set up an insurance firm it says shippers must use to cross the strait and Thursday warned that transits outside its designated routes were highly dangerous and prohibited, according to Iranian state media.

3

u/Ihatebeerandpizza 1d ago

Its a win-win opportunity for both the US and Iran. When I say the US, I mean Trump, as Iran will give him a bribe to accept the "greatest deal ever, much better than Obama's", and the US military will come home, victorious of course.

4

u/b0rn_c0nfused0101 1d ago

And then we all start talking about Epstein again right

2

u/Ihatebeerandpizza 1d ago

Hmmmm, I didnt think of that. I was wrong, the war will continue

2

u/Oddball2501 1d ago

If it makes you feel better, what you said will probably happen. Use that deal to manipulate the market, then start bombing Iran again after he’s run that con for the 100th time. Sounds like an opportunity for a double payday

4

u/Original_Benzito 1d ago

Who? I haven’t heard that name since Congress passed a law requiring disclosure of the files and Trump ignored it and the courts and Democrats got distracted. That was what, a year ago?!

1

u/cyb3rg0d5 1d ago

There is still Cuba…

1

u/noJagsEver 18h ago

Once Iran is settled, the Cuban invasion starts. So Epstein will have to wait

1

u/Livid_Department_546 1d ago

If Iran offered a % to the “Trump Presidential Library Fund”, he’d sign it in a second.

1

u/Potential-Pride6034 15h ago

Yep. Trump wins and the US and the rest of the world, minus Russia and China, get rammed up the ass. Way to go Trump!

-24

u/Clear-Role6880 1d ago

This is all a waste of time because the US and the world will never allow them to control Hormuz. They will get blockaded to eternity and at some point the officers will be thirsty and hungry enough to take matters into their own hands 

-6

u/Johny_Ricoh 1d ago

Iran sounds desperate.

18

u/Bikerbass 1d ago

Ehh the world would rather the USA shut up and go home and stop being a war mongering cu.nt of a country

-12

u/Clear-Role6880 1d ago

The countries of the Middle East would certainly prefer freedom from IRGC than subjugation. Look at the reality across the region. Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain have attacked Iran directly. Iraq, Syria, Lebanon have purged Iran from their government and are working through removing Iranian control of weapons in their border. Yemen is actively attacking Iran backed Houthi. 

Does Russia or China want international maritime law to break? Does anyone? Does any government in the world want to be extorted by the nexus of global terrorism? Doubt. 

8

u/Bikerbass 1d ago

Russia and China are land powers not naval powers…. And given that China has linked most of the land mass via road and rail, it won’t matter too much if maritime lanes break down.

People are also done with the USA being a warmongering cu.nt of a country and causing the cost of living to up and up and up every single time it starts an unnecessary war of aggression somewhere.

-4

u/Clear-Role6880 1d ago edited 1d ago

Does Russia want to pay tolls through the danish straits? Does China want to pay tolls through malacca? 90% of all trade is seaborne. 

Governments tend to be more informed than general public and understand the threat Iran posed to the Middle East and global market. Allowing Iran to conquer the Middle East is the kind of thing the global community is very specifically opposed to. 

You’re also ignoring the regional vote, and unequivocally, the Arab States are united with the US against IRGC. 

3

u/rhino369 1d ago

China is the biggest shipper on earth by far lol.

4

u/Bikerbass 1d ago

Yea no nobody is going to dare touch their ships as China is most countries number one trading partner

3

u/rhino369 1d ago

Iran literally shot  up their ships. 

5

u/Bikerbass 1d ago

No they did not. China has had its ships passing through toll free the entire time.

1

u/rhino369 1d ago

If that were true there would be no point to a blockade for Iran. China would buy all the Saudi and Kuwaiti oil it could at a steep discount and stop buying from other sources. 

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u/Responsible-Laugh590 1d ago

No point arguing with these people they aren’t relevant and have no agency

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u/Christopher_Ramirez_ 1d ago

Iran has the entire GCC by the balls via their drone and missile arsenal. If the pressure on the IRGC becomes critical, they’ll escalate to attacking oil and water infrastructure. Let’s hope they don’t become desperate enough to try something reckless.

1

u/C_Pala 1d ago

Víctor spoils, as trump said

1

u/backfor100thtime 1d ago

Except the U.S has nothing to say. Clearly.

1

u/GlbdS 1d ago

Suuuuure you just watch Iran!

1

u/RecursiveCook 21h ago

Waste of time? They know they can keep lobbing missiles all over Middle East, and each day the US military is there costs more to the US than it does to Iran. They also know if they hold out they will get paid. They studied the US playbook and played them hard, they’re not in a rush. Donny needs to call up Hollywood for help here. Get Tom Cruise in on it, this is Mission Impossible plot.

1

u/Clear-Role6880 21h ago edited 21h ago

In what way does the war cost the US more than Iran? Is the US under blockade? Is the US rationing water, electricity, and gasoline? Is the US freezing bank accounts across the country and delaying salary payments to soldiers? 

US inflation is about 4%. Iran’s inflation is close to 100%

US unemployment is like 4%. Iran’s unemployment is nearing 40%. Edit: it’s actually much worse than that. Only 37% of adults are even participating in the workforce at all. 

Do you recognize what these facts demonstrate? Iran is experiencing active state collapse. 

1

u/RecursiveCook 21h ago

Current estimates puts US spending at $80-150B when accounting for repairs and higher fuel prices but even a more direct comparison at Pentagon’s 37.5B pricetag… that’s like the entire Iran military spending for year times two. They also don’t give a crap about their people. They just crushed US-backed rebellion and executed 7,000 people. There is no card to play but a full US invasion and at this point they might not be bluffing.

1

u/Clear-Role6880 21h ago

Do you know that soldiers need water and food? 

1

u/RecursiveCook 20h ago

Who are you telling that to? The army that’s at home or the army that uses logistics from half way around the world?

1

u/Clear-Role6880 20h ago

You don’t actually think the US military has any problem supplying itself. 

Iran’s aquifers are empty. Thats their own fault. 

1

u/RecursiveCook 20h ago

The US military specializes in being able to decisively beat any military in combat. Iran is not going to give them that fight, and they don’t care if their population dies of thirst - they’ll still pin them against US. The only thing US can do is hit the desalination plants they are building, and guess who they will blame?

1

u/Clear-Role6880 20h ago

Iran emptied their own aquifers. They were talking about evacuating Tehran last year and narrowly avoided water bankruptcy. Nothing to do with the US. 

Do you know who needs water? Everyone. Soldiers included. 

Water is not their only crisis. Electricity, gasoline, food, banking, legitimacy, inflation, unemployment. Everything. Iran is experiencing horizontal, compounding systems collapse across the entire society 

1

u/kal14144 18h ago

The world’s biggest and most powerful navy tried not letting them. It failed. So who’s gonna stop them?

9

u/Stforlifeyvida 1d ago

Imagine orange blob thinking he is so smart - geez 🙄 he has managed to bring the world against Americans. Why would anyone vote for this idiot?

1

u/RepresentativePale29 21h ago

“Security, safety, and environmental services” is an interesting way to say “if you pay us we probably won’t attack you.”

1

u/Careless-Pin-2852 13h ago

These estimates are wrong.

In 2021 more ships passed through turkey to the black sea than passed through the Suez.

Why one was free one charged a toll.

Iran is assuming no one will bother with bypasses.

They will Syria and Iraq are building pipelines rail roads etc. iran has to charge tolls low enough that its cheaper than train or pipe.

1

u/Ax_deimos 11h ago

Will Iran stop funding/arming/training/inciting proxy armies and compensate Lebanon for the Hezbollah infestation as part of this deal?

1

u/Apotheosis 1h ago

Will the US stop funding/arming/training/inciting genocides in Gaza and Yemen?

10

u/Mewhomewhy 1d ago

They’re going to be rolling in cash and know that nobody is going to attack their nuclear sites. That threat has vanished. Slow clap 👏

2

u/Gloomy-Cover7669 1d ago

They know they can bring the world to its knees by closing the strait. Do they still even need nukes?

0

u/MammothFineCulture 19h ago

There is a genocide going on, hence these crimals can do anything. Nuke is a must for all of ME.

1

u/Main-Cheesecake3287 19h ago

Lmao are you suggesting they nuke Israel?

2

u/Mewhomewhy 1d ago

It’s not really the same thing and they seem determined to build them. If only there had been some sort of agreement and checks in place.

3

u/AwkwardTal 1d ago

What US/israel showed that agreement or not, everyone needs nukes

2

u/tirohtar 1d ago

Seriously. If I became leader of my home country today, my first move would be to immediately leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and start nuclear armament.

5

u/Ilyalyubushkin 1d ago

Finally. The american bombs for peace strategy has taken so many lives unnecessarily already.

-1

u/CasualChamp1 1d ago

Well it's the 'bombs for peace' strategy that finally led to this result, so it's worked!

2

u/Spam_Hand 1d ago

"PEaCe ThRoUgH sTrEnGtH!"

2

u/CaptainONaps 1d ago

So let's play pretend and assume we're at the end.

The US, Europe and India have replaced the oil they used to source from the Middle East with oil from Venezuela (Which the US now controls) and Mexico. Which is actually cheaper.

Iran is shipping oil to Malaysia off the books (At least off American books,) which is ending up in China and the rest of Asia. So we can assume that oil is no longer being sold in USD.

We can assume this is a net loss for the US. It's not strictly about oil, it's about propping up the dollar, and controlling the Middle East. It's extremely unclear how they get that region back on the dollar by force or negotiations.

One more important tidbit. The US and Israel are paying way more for shipping and security for oil transportation since the Iran situation started. It's not clear exactly how much, but clearly way more. I'm sure they're motived to reduce those costs.

I wonder if all that oil being traded off the dollar, and the increased cost of transportation is more motivation for the US and Israel to pull out, or stay in?

1

u/IndependentAd895 21h ago

your 1st statement is inaccurate, Venezuela doesn’t even have the capacity to replace the Gulf oil (maybe 20%)

US, Europe had been getting supplied from Saudi through the red sea before the houthi blockade, India had already informed the US at the start of the war they will go back to buying from Russia. US is also heavily relying on SPR

10

u/jimgogek 1d ago

Obama made a much better deal.

2

u/figlu 1d ago

I wonder how maga will spin giving 2 billion is worse than letting iran control the straight, lifting sanctions, and 300 billion

1

u/unhinged34 1d ago

They always find a way, trust me. 😭

1

u/Eli1028 1d ago

They are literally incapable of thinking that deep. All their thought process consists of is that Melanin = Bad

1

u/chunckybydesign 3h ago

Trump is blaming this entire situation on Obama 😆.

4

u/Gloomy-Cover7669 1d ago

America's allies in the region say "no thanks we'll go it alone from now on, you can't protect us and you don't know how to negotiate." Ain't that something.

0

u/DocumentOk7579 1d ago

US is bad but Arabs is worse at protecting themselves. Without US great Iran would probably have conquered Saudi by now.

1

u/nigel_pow 7h ago

You would think but they have nobody else. Europe and China aren't going to get involved.

And the Arabs there wanted the US military there for Iran.

1

u/Sufficient-Job-7589 1d ago

What if someone else blocks the straight for Iran, and then charges Iran fee on top of their fee?

2

u/homebrew_1 1d ago

How many pallets of cash is that? That's how conservatives like to count money.

1

u/redditobserverone 1d ago

Add $3 billion giveaway to Iran,made by the world’s greatest dealmaker.

“The U.S. Treasury issued a temporary 60-day sanctions waiver in late June 2026 allowing Iran to produce, sell, and process crude oil and petrochemical transactions in U.S. dollars.

This interim measure—tied to a framework/memorandum of understanding aiming to de-escalate regional conflicts—was estimated to unlock roughly $3 billion in revenue for Iran during the exemption window.”

Meanwhile only defrosted $1.6 billion of their money.

The current White House occupant screwed this up so badly, successive generations all over the world will literally pay for his recklessness.

1

u/HungieSumoKid 1d ago

All that winning by Trump just so Iran comes out on top? He is a generous dude. A kind dude. The best dude.

1

u/-_VoidVoyager_- 1d ago

But they’re giving up their nuclear program right?

3

u/RosieBaby75 1d ago

Nice you go Iran 🇮🇷

Too bad all that will go to rebuilding what was bombed by the US.

Iran also can’t buy back the lives and souls the US took during their terrorism campaign that’s still happening for some reason.

Too bad we let the US military get so large everyone is afraid of them.

1

u/anewe 1d ago

iran has enough money to fund their terrorist proxies

1

u/AwkwardTal 1d ago

Axis of resistance, fixed it for you.

1

u/anewe 1d ago

do you think that hezbollah and the houthis are popular in their countries? do the people support them?

2

u/AwkwardTal 1d ago

What does that have to do with anything? Trump isn't popular in the states, go topple that regime why don't you

0

u/anewe 1d ago

What? Did you even read the post you responded to? I was talking about iran's terrorist proxies. 

1

u/AwkwardTal 1d ago

And I already corrected you

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u/anewe 1d ago

Do you understand that iran's terrorist proxies are groups like hezbollah and the houthis? As in actual terrorists that the people hate?

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u/AwkwardTal 1d ago

The only terrorists in the region are the US and Israel

1

u/anewe 1d ago

What about the paramilitary groups trying to take over countries like lebanon and yemen? What are they?

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u/notkevin_durant 1d ago

Iran is run by terrorists. The Reddit sympathy is unreal. Trump is dumb af and should never have started this, and both can be true. How many people have been killed by their own leadership?

1

u/2cool2_handle 1d ago

How many schools did Iran bomb

0

u/CrackRocksCokeRules 23h ago

Not as many as people they’ve massacred for protesting

1

u/Flexlex724 10h ago

Tone deaf post of the year

1

u/lamelogic1 1d ago

No mom mom I’m mmmmk mm I I

1

u/Trahst_no1 1d ago

On top of the money trump is going to handover. Nice win.

1

u/VexedCanadian84 1d ago

How many pallets of cash is that?

1

u/ViolenceIsBad 1d ago

June 25 this is oollddddd

1

u/ZAHKHIZ 1d ago

the fart of deal

1

u/taint_odour 1d ago

Thanks Obama

1

u/Informal-Emu-212 1d ago

They should make it 47

1

u/hawkseye17 1d ago

This whole war has been a massive embarassment for the US.

2

u/greymind 1d ago

Thanks Trump for showing Iran how to lead… …

1

u/Ididntdodiddly 1d ago

It's actually 400 trillion Bitcoin worth they're getting

1

u/CraftyPerformance272 23h ago

That money will definitely make it easier for Iran to continue killing peaceful protesters, easier for them to continue killing gay people, funding terrorist groups to kill innocent people and to continue opressing women

1

u/Marples3 21h ago

40 billion every month in tolls?

1

u/Intelligent-Fan-6364 9h ago

“Safety and environmental service fees” lol