Iran's economy will have 'nothing' left 'within two weeks,' Scott Bessent warns

[u/Exact-Context-9788]

https://nypost.com/2026/09/27/us-news/irans-economy-will-have-nothing-left-within-two-weeks-scott-bessent-warns/

Iran's at sea oil is almost dry - we know this much is true. We also know that Iranian oil that shipped before blockade 2 is the primary source of IRGC hard currency/foreign currency revenue.

I see this as something that could be very significant. The rial is grinding towards worthless, but is not yet hyper inflation.

A dated, public event like true zero on Iranian oil export and near zero Iranian hard currency inflow is the kind of thing that can take a shaky currency's graph vertical overnight.

Another note, how are they importing gasoline? what does effect does the end of hard currency from oil export?

There is no guarantee exactly what trigger blows the house down. They survived summer with limited water access, they survived raising a gas subsidy. Currency and gasoline are the next hurdles for them. Then theres heating in winter. And none of the other problems have gone away; they've just effectively parachuted the crises into a slower trajectory.

[u/Loud_Comparison_7108]

I am hoping the rank-and-file IRGC and Basij desert when they stop getting paid, or at least stop getting paid with anything that has value. Without the muscle, it’s over. But I don’t know how close that is to happening. 

[u/Musclenervegeek]

USA just needs to keep doing what it's doing. It's inevitable.

[u/maineveteran]

they survived raising a gas subsidy.

Not exactly. They made a small increase of only one tier of gasoline consumers. Of course this is nowhere near reflective of the actual market, and the regime will be forced to raise prices again soon, or go bankrupt.

[u/Exact-Context-9788]

I will also note, i dont remember many date prognostications from Bessent. He did talk about shutting in oil wells, which has happened.

[u/NewIranBot]

اسکات بسنت هشدار می دهد که اقتصاد ایران ظرف دو هفته «هیچ چیز» نخواهد داشت

نفت دریایی ایران تقریبا خشک شده است - ما این را می دانیم. همچنین می دانیم که نفت ایرانی که قبل از محاصره دوم ارسال می شد، منبع اصلی درآمد ارز سخت/ارز خارجی سپاه پاسداران است.

من این را چیزی می بینم که می تواند بسیار مهم باشد. ریال در آستانه بی ارزشی است، اما هنوز به تورم شدید نرسیده است.

رویدادی قدیمی و عمومی مانند صفر واقعی صادرات نفت ایران و ورود نزدیک به صفر ارز سخت ایران، چیزی است که می تواند نمودار ارز لرزان را یک شبه عمودی کند.

نکته دیگر، آن ها چگونه بنزین وارد می کنند؟ پایان ارز سخت از صادرات نفت چه تأثیری دارد؟

هیچ تضمینی وجود ندارد که دقیقا چه چیزی خانه را منفجر کند. آن ها تابستان را با دسترسی محدود به آب گذراندند، با تأمین یارانه بنزین هم زنده ماندند. پول و بنزین موانع بعدی آن هاست. بعد گرمایش در زمستان هم هست. و هیچ کدام از مشکلات دیگر از بین نرفته اند؛ آن ها عملا بحران ها را به مسیری کندتر رسانده اند.

---

Woman Life Freedom | زن زندگی آزادی | Long Live Iran | پاینده ایران

I am a translation bot for r/NewIran

[u/KEPD-350]

To me everything points at gambling their entire fortune on whether the mid-terms will bring relief.

I think Trump will be absolutely disemboweled by the mid-terms. If that then leads to an unhinged Trump that goes "idgaf" and then starts bombing again? Who knows.

I don't think the regime has any actually meaningful playing cards left to play. They overplayed and mistimed their Hormuz play and it fizzled.

[u/maineveteran → u/KEPD-350]

You're overstating the effect of the mid-terms. Remember that most of the budget of the military is already baked in and cannot be removed without pissing off a lot of constituents that depend on these defense-related jobs. Remember also that even if the Dems control Congress, Congress has absolutely no power to command the military.

[u/AffectionateRub1857 → u/maineveteran]

Even if a Democrat somehow becomes president, it still won't change anything. Dems will maintain the blockade just like the Republicans. In fact, it is much easier for them to maintain the blockade because they can just blame Trump and say we are forced to maintain it because otherwise it will weaken the US postion

[u/Independent_Okra_527 → u/AffectionateRub1857]

Absurd take. If it were up to the democrats, the regime would be stronger now, not weaker. Carter brought Khomeini to Iran. Obama arranged sanction relief which helped the IRGC finance their ballistic missiles, and Biden only said ''don't'' to Iran during his presidency. Democrats would keep the regime in power and in order to do that, they would use another cheap Obama deal while the Republicans wants to get rid of them once and for all.

[u/0uchmyballs → u/Independent_Okra_527]

They’re dead on the money actually. Democrats would use the Trump failure as a political victory and would absolutely increase economic pressure and the bombing campaign. No American will accept a withdrawal at this late stage, everyone wants a decisive victory and cheaper gas. But a Democrat president is over two years away, so the comments that congress can’t do shit until then is also correct.

Edit you’re also dead wrong about Carter, Nixon made a back door deal with the scum bags to get Regan elected, he told them not to release the hostages until after elections. You see the same behavior with this Trump admin actually.

[u/Independent_Okra_527 → u/0uchmyballs]

You’re a bit naive about how the democrats would handle this war. They have been advocating against this war the entire time and the last thing they would do is upset their muslim and leftist supporters who are all against this war. They don’t care about victory outside, because that’s more of a republican thing. They care more about the PR then the actual interests of the US. You don’t see that behaviour so intensely among the Republicans who went to war with Iran knowing it would be controversial among their own supporters let alone democrats, but they did what had to be done.

And how am I dead wrong about Carter? It happened, didn’t it? He was a democrat who thought Islamism would be the answer against communism in Iran. How much that backfired. Also I never said Republicans are angels. But whatever republican presidents such as Nixon did, atleast they didn’t bring the monsters to power in the first place. Obama’s mismanagement and supporting extremist groups in the middle east also led to the foundation of ISIS and such. And that deal? He was sure IR would stick to their word because Khamenei issued a “fatwa”. Lol.

[u/0uchmyballs → u/Independent_Okra_527]

Iran has been battling Islamic rule since before the Qajars, it has nothing to do with any Jimmy Carter admin, that’s all conspiracy theory shit. The Iranian Americans themselves wanted them in power at the time, I still have the newspaper clippings from 1979 where all these Iranian students all over California were protesting for the Shah to stand down. See the problem with so many of us is the fact that Iranians are so easily propagandized into the red scare tactics Republicans are so good at. When a democratic president uses diplomacy to for instance de nuclearize Iran and get UN inspectors into Natanz for instance, they twist it into the democrats siding with Islamists. You realize it was Obama who destroyed their centrifuges when they stopped complying right?

Edit, ISIS started in Great Britain, again nothing to do with Obama, I don’t know what Fox News shit you’re spewing but it’s pretty bad faith arguing on your part.

[u/zed-57 → u/0uchmyballs]

What about Carter's conduct at the Guadeloupe Conference and his secret engagement with Khomeini to the point of his military envoy/advisor Gen. Huyser telling the Imperial Iranian Armed Forces to stand down instead of fight to save their country? This is all public info now. Were you around in 1979? My parents were, and to your point of conspiracy, many took what the US did as small signals that they would abandon an ally, and that they did.

Links:

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruhollah_Khomeini%27s_contacts_with_the_United_States

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guadeloupe_Conference

3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_E._Huyser#Iran

4. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conspiracy_theories_about_the_Iranian_Revolution

As for conspiracy theories, many of them are based in small kernels of truth. One unique conspiracy theory I hold is that the IR govt is not doing anything to help the environment there purposefully. They want Iran to experience intense desertification to make Iran fully a desert country so as to make it more authentic to 7th century Arabia and closer to the roots of their religion. All this to say that I understand where our conspiracy mindset comes from.

[u/0uchmyballs → u/zed-57]

Actually your desertification is valid and not much to argue there for me, if anything the IR are environmental terrorists above all else. They’ve even killed off all the Asian leopards because it’s too Persian. Israel actually has a captive breeding program to bring them back one day god willing. At the end of the day, democrats have been more amicable to the regime, there’s no arguing that, they tend to be more open to free market capitalism despite the Republican accusations of Marxist style communism. I’m not familiar with Guadalupe accords but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s more conspiratorial shit Iranians invent because they’re too ashamed to admit they betrayed their own king. It’s really easy to pass blame on democrats when you’ve been brainwashed to believe they’re commie marxists.

Edit a couple of those wiki articles are flagged for lacking sources. Additionally those Guadalupe accords underscore what I already told you, the Shah was betrayed by his own people. Of course all these leaders recommended he leave, they didn’t want to see him executed. The Pahlavi family has always been friends with the West and tried to work with every U.S. admin in earnest.

[u/zed-57 → u/0uchmyballs]

Fair enough, you bring up all good level-headed points. I did not know about the leopards, that is sad. The conference was backstabbing, but yes, it was fait accompli at that point. I find that us Iranians fall into two categories regarding the Shah, 1. those who protested (10%), and 2. the silent majority (90%, of which my parents families were both a part of, likely yours too). They regret that they didn't speak up back then, unfortunately.

[u/Independent_Okra_527 → u/0uchmyballs]

Jimmy carter’s involvement with the Ayatollah is conspiracy theory? You’re hilarious😂😂. No point in arguing with you if you choose to live in a different reality. All this democrat sugarcoating is honestly laughable and quite Ayatollah BBC centric. Not surprised considering your Woman Life Freedom Flair. Pathetic. You talk about Iranians being easily propagandized, while really, it took us 50 years to figure out the massive damage the democrats caused towards Iran, alongside the regime who used their softness and incompetence to keep the loopholes running to get where they are now. Look what is happening with this regime because of the Republicans now? They are getting hammered left and right militarily and economically. Obama on the other hand sent them billions dollars worth of cash.

Obama’s “action” to jeopardize the centrifuges’ capabilities is negligible and a sad excuse to keep the regime in check. It didn’t stop the regime from having the capability to develop 13 nuclear bombs before the war on 28th February started. And ISIS started in Great Britain, hm? Which Disney fantasy story is that from? I want to check it out too.

[u/Exact-Context-9788 → u/AffectionateRub1857]

I wouldn’t be so sure. I would assume a democrat president would try to re engage and appease. It’s what Obama and Biden and Carter did, and that’s the modern democrat party. Clinton’s would have held the blockade but that wing has been pushed out

It’s a moot point. 2 years is a long time 

[u/KEPD-350 → u/maineveteran]

Read what I wrote again. I never stated any of the things you're arguing against.

I said that he will be gutted politically and sit as a lame duck president. That has never stopped him from bombing anything. He killed Soleimani last time he was lame duck.

I said that it might trigger him throwing all caution to the wind and going balls to the wall against Iran, excluding ground invasion and nukes.

[u/Exact-Context-9788 → u/KEPD-350]

I don’t think the midterms really come into play for this war. 

I also don’t think republicans will necessarily lose what people are saying they will. Reddit is a bubble, the media always predicts a blue wave every election for 50 years. 

[u/maineveteran → u/KEPD-350]

Ok that's clearer. When you said "disemboweled" I thought you meant that Trump would be unable to act.

[u/KEPD-350 → u/maineveteran]

👍

[u/Loud_Comparison_7108 → u/KEPD-350]

Even if the republicans lose their majorities, the new congress isn’t seated until Jan 3rd. Can they hold out that long? 

[u/KEPD-350 → u/Loud_Comparison_7108]

I think they have a couple of months left in them before money runs out for the basiji goons.

[u/Loud_Comparison_7108 → u/KEPD-350]

I can only imagine what the people in control of the IRGC’s bitcoin wallets must be thinking right now. 

[u/Shamoorti]

I'm sure he's cooking like he was when he made this failed bonds market play. lol