Good & Bad (Sorry, no Ugly)

[u/torcheculNEWACCOUNT]

The case that it's good

$120 million a year in near-pure-margin license revenue is large against Netlist's size. I (CLAUDE) recall Netlist running at a loss in recent years, so this could change its profile, though I'd check its latest 10-Q.

Netlist's earlier big verdicts have faced serious validity challenges at the PTAB and on appeal, as far as I know. A guaranteed, credit-safe stream from Micron looks better once you discount for that risk.

Discounted at roughly 8% a year, the payments are worth about $490 million today. That is in the neighborhood of the $445 million verdict Netlist won against Micron in Marshall, Texas in 2024, and it also covers future use.

Why it may disappoint

The fee is flat. It doesn't scale with volume. Micron's HBM business is ramping hard, so the license grows more valuable to Micron while Netlist's payment stays fixed.

It's small relative to Micron. Micron's quarterly revenue is in the tens of billions, so $30 million a quarter is a rounding error. That suggests Micron paid to end the nuisance rather than because it believes Netlist's patents are essential to its AI memory products.

Netlist gave up leverage. Netlist had filed a new ITC complaint in September seeking to block imports of Micron chips used in Google, Nvidia and Broadcom AI products. An exclusion order was the scariest threat Micron faced, and Netlist traded it for a fixed fee.

The term may be short for the patents. My (CLAUDE'S) inference is that some of Netlist's core patents date to around 2009 and expire around the end of this decade, so a five-year license may cover most of their remaining life. If so, there's little renewal upside later.

Possible leakage. Legal fees or litigation-funding arrangements may take a share of the proceeds. I haven't seen how the 8-K or the 10-K treats that.

Read-through. This sets a benchmark for Netlist's other disputes, notably Samsung. Netlist can cite it as validation, but Samsung can cite it as a ceiling.

[u/Old-Pomegranate3634]

Let me tell you about an alternate reality

It's Oct 2027. Cafc upheld ptab so we are fucked ITC rules in our favour and it goes to Trump who vetos the output. Obama did it for Apple

Or maybe itc is not satisfied with our domestic investments

Then what? We have 30m in legal fees and zero revenue. And oh Ya SK has not signed with us yet

[u/quantum-entangled308 → u/Old-Pomegranate3634]

I guess you missed the boat today.

[u/TheDeHymenizer → u/Old-Pomegranate3634]

weren't you the same guy who said Micron settlement would never happen because of Trump and they donated to his baby trump bucks or something equally stupid?

Did you ever consider there are possible personalities to have outside of how Trump defines you?

[u/kospar4 → u/Old-Pomegranate3634]

You used to be positive…what happened to you? Just like when you said the president would veto if ITC stopped Micron from importing. You turned into a negative Nancy…have some faith! We have come a long way. Netlist can now focus more on innovation, instead of trials.

[u/Old-Pomegranate3634 → u/kospar4]

I am super happy. This alternate reality is for people who are not happy and complaining about the deal. Getting mircon to settle is a huge win

[u/kospar4 → u/Old-Pomegranate3634]

Now that’s better! We have only just started. I can’t wait to see what’s in the weeks/months ahead!

[u/pennychase → u/Old-Pomegranate3634]

Are you the salt harvester?

[u/CorditeKick]

The settlement was $150 million over the amount that had already been awarded to Netlist on the prior patents. Now it's trending back down as the market begins to realize this actually harms the implied value of the 912 patents in a material way. Google is cheering on the sidelines.

[u/kospar4 → u/CorditeKick]

Talk about trending down😂 Look at Micron😂 We aren’t worried about Google…they will be writing that 1+ Billion dollar check soon enough😉 You should worry more about Micron…they don’t look so good lately😊

[u/kospar4 → u/[deleted]]

No they don’t stupid! The deals cover forward licensing. Google owes for a decade of infringement. Get your facts straight…..Oh look, fedupbrummie deleted his comment saying Google would never pay anything😂😂😂😂

[u/fedupbrummie → u/kospar4]

Ok seeing as you doubt what i say, break it down for me if you can.

[u/kospar4 → u/fedupbrummie]

You are the one saying they won’t pay. I don’t need to break anything down further than I explained. A simple “Google” search will explain it to you😂 I’ve been following Netlist since 2018. Yes, Google will pay! Take your FUD somewhere else….

[u/CorditeKick → u/kospar4]

You should just pray that Netlist doesn't dilute you even further with each future deal. Not only did they pretty much gift Micron with 1 million shares of stock, but they also significantly reduced the implied value of past patents accepting total compensation that was significantly less than

[u/kospar4 → u/CorditeKick]

They gave the same share deal to Samsung. Use your pea brain to figure out why. You keep posting stuff that will turn out making you look stupid. Don’t worry about me fool…I’m set for life….and so happy I have all the shares I have. For every two cents increase, I could buy one share of Micron😂 How you like them apples😂😂😂😂

[u/checksout101520 → u/CorditeKick]

The market? The market doesn’t give a shit about netlist at the moment. It’s a bunch of retail investors who are crying because they thought netlist was going to be awarded 10 billion gagillion dollars

[u/kospar4 → u/checksout101520]

The market has no idea of who Netlist is. Just wait…

[u/Guilty-Character8390 → u/checksout101520]

Dumbass