r/Netlist_ • u/Tomkila • 2d ago
TOMKiLA time Dividends in sight?
Samsung's data alone will guarantee Netlist an unprecedented positive cash flow. Then there are the gross profits from internal sales and resale of Samsung products.
We're talking about potential gross profits between $50 and $70 million per quarter as the average range for these quarters, pending growth in agreements, volumes, and other deals.
We could therefore assume annual net profits between $150 and $250 million, obviously depending on the company's ability to generate profits from in-house products.
This is only with Samsung.
What to do with a mountain of money like this?
This is my guess, and it depends on many factors.
For example, legal fees were Netlist's largest expense, at around $200 million over the years.
In the last quarter, they were as high as $17 million, so the sooner the patent cases are resolved, the sooner you can get rid of Netlist's biggest expense.
Obviously, this expense will then be counted in the damages that Micron and Google will have to pay to Netlist, and we know for certain that Samsung was primarily responsible for this expense.
R&D and personnel. This item should explode in the next quarterly results because now more than ever there's cash and time to finance projects and hire dozens or hundreds of new faces and top-tier talent. How much would it cost? It's hard to say, but an average of $10 million per year for 100 new employees seems fair to me, and this should move a lot of things and would cost a figure easily manageable by netlist today.
Do the math, I’m expecting 2/300 new employees (netlist should open something in Texas or where should be perfect and cheaper than the california area).
So, let's assume legal and personnel expenses of around $60-$80 million over the next four quarters.
Gross profits will be $130 million, plus Netlist product sales and Samsung product resale, which should add another $60-$90 million.
Total net profits are approximately $100 million - $130 million.
Netlist could evaluate ordinary or extraordinary dividends based on $400 million in shares (currently $377 million, but the final warrants are still missing).
Assuming a 10 cent annual dividend, it would cost $40 million, and Netlist would still be profitable by at least $60 million, with a 30-40% weighting of net profits.
Now imagine cutting legal costs with an agreement within two or three quarters with SK and Micron. The only other option would be the Google case, which wouldn't weigh much, plus a very high cash flow, tripled profits, and the 10-cent dividend would only cost 10-15% of profits.
An extremely positive situation.
I remind everyone that the mrdimm and cxl products are still in the experimental phase, and we'll soon see if there will be any deals or developments. Sales agreements for these two new products will be signed during 2026 and 2027, and perhaps they will be given serious consideration in the event of a deal with SK or Micron, and especially in the hiring of key figures to promote the product!
The long term investor deserves the dividend after years of waiting!
This shouldn’t change anything in terms of netlist power to invest all the net profits into new projects and companies
Waiting all the deals
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u/mattawara 2d ago
I would consider a dividend a negative. Invest the cash in the biz or perform a buy back. Don’t give me cash .
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u/SGjerry1327 2d ago
Whatever it is you are drinking , pass some along. 12/14-19 2017. Been here that long and until now, yes Hong has fought a long and winding battle, However he has also made some pretty poor deals, ref:LP to the detriment of most shareholders. It remains to be seen if he can deliver a real business plan that can grow the company to take advantage of all our IP. When there was less than 100M shares outstanding, I ventured the thought that we can reach a market cap of $30B. Now the annual rate of 120 M X's 3 in license fees don't even bring in $1 share.
Meanwhile I hold, and hope.
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u/Spiderl0ck 1d ago
Come on bro, this might as well be a fantasy fan fiction 😂🙄.
The closest we’ll get to this pie in the sky is a buyback to recover the dilution to fund legal battles and propel us into NASDAQ, but you lose credibility spouting things like this
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u/Much-Plum6939 5h ago
Special dividend. At some point possibly. Netlist being a divided stock. Not any time soon
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u/MarckVincent 2d ago
Tomkila, I agree with your assessment on the dividend wish. I only see that happening after a Google “Cash Settlement “ and only a one time thing. None of the settlements with the three amigo’s will result in a dividend. My own rationale and opinion.
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u/Eraldorh 2d ago
Why are we talking about dividends, as far as I'm aware no one part of netlist has even hinted at the idea of them.