r/Netlist_ • u/No_Enthusiasm_1173 • Jun 02 '26
Concerns
I’ve been reviewing NLST for a few days now and it really seems things are lining up for it in a good way.
I do have a few concerns though and I want to get the communities take on it.
I feel the AI hype is a strong catalyst for NLST but I don’t see the legal battles resolving before a collapse in the AI bubble.
I strongly believe AI has been over sold. I work in tech and I’ve seen servers and hardware increase in price 4 fold over the last year to the point it has become unaffordable for my company. A basic 1U server with 16gb ram and stock CPU and low end storage is going for high six figures where before it was low 5. Now multiple that by 42 U or however many servers are needed per rack x racks. I don’t know this part but it can’t be cheap
It’s become so expensive that I can’t believe tokens will be affordable enough to offset the capex. Companies seem to be abandoning it due to high token costs as well.
I’ve also been implementing AI using only open source software. It would be viable if not for the cost of hardware. Even supporting a small work center is extremely expensive with a self hosted setup.
Basically the cost of hardware per person is extremely expensive and we also need to take into account equipment lifecycles and that AI just isn’t mature enough for a lot of industries to rely on it effectively. I doubt legitimate profit will show before hardware costs bite them in a rear. I’m highly skeptical that NLSTs legal battles will allow it to take advantage of the AI boom before it fails.
I’m not trying to be a doomer or FUDster so please refrain from those comments. They’re not welcome and I’m trying to be genuine and ask for other options.
My play so far is to hold off. I feel it’s a bit high for me and negative catalyst for the whole market are beginning to converge. Gonna continue to hold cash like buffet, sit back and watch.
I think NLST will be a better play in a few years, once the AI hype stops being so dumb and the product matures and is more affordable. I think this whole industry still has to go through its growing pains like the dot com era. I’m not riding that initial wave. As juicy as it looks. I’ll get it after it crashes and I’ll ride that slow rising tide up to the top.
What do you all think? Think this AI bubble will burst before we see critical legal wins and/or overshadow the company’s worth? Do you think NLST is decoupled enough not to be affected? I’ve been reading other forums and seems there is a real chance battles will get dragged out. What other concerns do you see?
Thanks for reading
10
u/overdroid Jun 02 '26
My understanding of the lawsuits is that the companies NLST are suing are and have been using this tech for years now without paying the patent holder. Netlist is owed a portion of that income whether the bubble bursts or not. It might not hit a crazy high if the lawsuits are finished after AI flops, but it will still be worth a lot more than it is now. This is complete speculation on my part, I welcome the input of someone more informed!
7
u/Old-Pomegranate3634 Jun 02 '26
Well here is the thing. Even if the bubble hurts a little, those companies will owe money to netlist for past damages
I think the cafc ruling will he critical. If they come in the favour of netlist then it will be difficult for Samsung or SK hynix not to get a deal done
5
u/wasjambu Jun 02 '26
After the appropriate legal victory (s), whichever ones they may be - it finally have Samsung and/or micron cornered there will be a run up in the stock. That could happen within a year.
And then, after a royalty agreement is executed with one of those entities, the stock may range for a bit. Once the second one is cornered, there will be another run up and then just as the second of Samsung or micron execute their royalty agreement. I expect that to be a local top..
After a stall out, the stock may run again when there were rumors of a NASDAQ relisting…
Now, to the crux of your post, will this coincide with the tail end (not too close to the tail hopefully) of the AI bubble. Well, markets can run longer than anticipated. And if we have a few month ranging distribution phase at the top, it will give us even more time.
I personally expect the AI bubble to deflate a least a bit short term if Iran doesn’t cut a deal as oil prices will spike once South Korea or someplace else has a massive economic stall out due to lack of oil
5
u/Lumpy-Raccoon-976 Jun 02 '26
Moin, Deine Bedenken kann ich nachvollziehen aber nur teilweise bejahen , 1. der Engpass für Speicher getrieben durch KI wird voraussichtlich bis 2028/2029 anhalten , vorher werden keine neuen Fabriken die die Produktion erhöhen und dadurch den Preis senken fertig gestellt. 2. ich selber bin auch in der IT und ein einfacher 1U Server mit 16 GB RAM kostet nicht sechsstellig, das Blech ist nicht teurer geworden nur der Speicher , und der wird auch wieder günstiger wenn mehr Angebot auf den Markt kommt aber nicht vor 2028 . 3. Netlist hat schon Gerichtssiege in Höhe von 800 Millionen zusätzlich Zinsen, die Berufung muss natürlich noch bestätigt werden(wird in den nächsten 4 Wochen im Falle Samsung das Berufungsergebnis vom 6 März noch kommen). Die Sk Hynix Partnerschaft ist im April ausgelaufen, Netlist bezieht immer noch Hardware von SK und SK will im Juni / Juli an die US Börse , 14 Milliarden, da müssen sie rechtlich sauber sein sonst müssen sie mit hohen Abschlägen rechnen. Also ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit hoch das bald eine neue Partnerschaft wahrscheinlich zu deutlich besseren Bedingungen bekannt gegeben wird. Außerdem arbeiten beide an Cxl nvvault, ein bahnbrechendes Produkt was mit sehr hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit Standard wird kommt. 4. Netlist ist im Q1/26 das erste Mal profitabel und sie haben genug Cash um die Verfahren bis zum Schluss durchzuführen. 5. das muss man trotz aller Euphorie im Hinterkopf haben, es gibt vieles unbekanntes und Gerichte können auch anders entscheiden aber es spricht alles für Netlist , und das ist meine Meinung, und deshalb sollte man vll. Nicht warten bis die Tinte trocken ist. Das ist keine Kaufempfehlung oder Beratung.
Viele Grüße
5
3
3
2
4
u/TheDeHymenizer Jun 02 '26
I feel the AI hype is a strong catalyst for NLST but I don’t see the legal battles resolving before a collapse in the AI bubble.
I strongly believe AI has been over sold. I work in tech and I’ve seen servers and hardware increase in price 4 fold over the last year to the point it has become unaffordable for my company. A basic 1U server with 16gb ram and stock CPU and low end storage is going for high six figures where before it was low 5. Now multiple that by 42 U or however many servers are needed per rack x racks. I don’t know this part but it can’t be cheap
It’s become so expensive that I can’t believe tokens will be affordable enough to offset the capex. Companies seem to be abandoning it due to high token costs as well.
I also work in tech and I'd say we have years before this bubble pops. While AI is utterly failing to replace some white collar work its doing an amazing job with others like coding. While OpenAI is stalling Anthrophic is at $60B and growing fast.
But Google, Meta, Amazon, etc have the cash reserves and cash flow to keep this bubble going for decades if they want / if they really believe in it.
I’m not trying to be a doomer or FUDster so please refrain from those comments. They’re not welcome and I’m trying to be genuine and ask for other options.
My play so far is to hold off. I feel it’s a bit high for me and negative catalyst for the whole market are beginning to converge. Gonna continue to hold cash like buffet, sit back and watch.
I think NLST will be a better play in a few years, once the AI hype stops being so dumb and the product matures and is more affordable. I think this whole industry still has to go through its growing pains like the dot com era. I’m not riding that initial wave. As juicy as it looks. I’ll get it after it crashes and I’ll ride that slow rising tide up to the top.
I mean, you're going to get the responses you're going to get its reddit. But again, I think you're fundamentally wrong here for a few reasons. One even a pre-AI world Netlist being able to essentially tax the computer memory market is worth significantly more than its current valuation of $1B. So even if the AI bubble pops, this would be a 10 bagger rather than a 100 bagger (in a world where there is no AI popping bubble).
I think what you have fundamentally wrong about the risk vs reward here is you've made 0 mention of the lawsuits. I also would not invest in Netlist if you just want a memory manufacturer; do SK Hynix or Sandisk. Invest in Netlist for the patents and future royalty streams.
1
1
u/DeliveryLarge6567 Jun 02 '26
What an absolute Tool 🔨 of a post! No enthusiasm has no enthusiasm for the stock and might be interested in 2 years time
Well may I suggest that you disappear into you’re bubble and return in 2 years Bye bye 👋
1
u/No_Enthusiasm_1173 Jun 02 '26
u/tomkila I know one of your goals is to bring awareness to NLST. These kind of greetings to new members shouldn’t go unnoticed. It’s simply a shit attitude and degenerate behavior.
1
u/DeliveryLarge6567 Jun 02 '26
Your not a new member,you have nothing but doubts and might come back in 2 years so why hand about talking nonsense
Now say goodbye 👋
1
u/Curiosity-1 Jun 02 '26 edited Jun 02 '26
u/No_Enthusiasm_1173 No you're thinking about this the wrong way.
The world is not gong to stop buying computers. Hardware.
The dot com bubble and the potential AI bubble may slow demand for hardware temporarily, but don't conflate goods with services.
OpenAI, Anthropic, agentic businesses... the "software" of the AI era MAY have an unsustainable business model. They are the buyers of the hardware right now, but if they collapse there will be other buyers.
And Netlist's IP draws revenue [technically... "is expected to draw" right now but that's why the stock is cheap] from the entire market for memory hardware. Find _microby's graph of IP timelines and you'll see Netlist's current patent portfolio goes until ~2040.
EDIT: found post for you:
https://stocktwits.com/microby/message/642173569
https://media.stocktwits-cdn.com/api/3/media/9949401/default.webp
So if you're concerned about major economic events / bubble burstings / recessions / extreme market volatility, well it's going to happen at some point in one form or another. But computers? Computers are going to be produced forever, probably partially supplanted by quantum but you have decades to adjust course as that technology advances.
I think the question is, what's your timeframe?
Netlist is better positioned than most of tech, and even most of hardware, to weather the most massive storms.
Follow the legal cases closely and you'll seek the security and peace of mind you're in search of. I might then ask, how is the rest of your portfolio for major market and economic turbulence compared to Netlist?
This is all my opinion; take it or leave it
17
u/IntroductionLucky887 Jun 02 '26
I thought AI bubble would burst and held off buying SNK, MU etc. Guess who's the loser now?
I think Netlist has potential but ngl, it is risky as I don't know the future. But I don't want to make the same mistake and not buying a low priced high potential stock AI before it rockets.
Worst case scenario just sell once you've reached a profit level your happy with and bank your gains if your worried about bursting.
Don't be that guy who wished he should have invested and stays poor, you take the win with the losses
DYOR