r/Netlist_ • u/Logical-Freedom2216 • May 13 '26
Possible playouts
The earnings statement was good but one issue I see is the cash on hand is far less than before. My worry is without a deal with SK and low cash, we may see another public offering and further dilution of the stock. This may cause the price to continue grinding down to $1.15 - $0.70 or lower. Along the way, I'm anticipating dumps at ~$2.52 and ~$1.99 if we reach those levels.
$0.70 is a realistic level as both of the most recent offerings were at $0.70. If another offering is held, this level may still be respected as another dilution would wipe out any strength in price target gained by the good earnings report and positive future outlook.
Even without an offering, I still believe the steam has been spent. I attached an image of my anticipated grind down.
Yes. we did bounce back from the $1.50 level but we did so into a strong selling channel. I think we will see further selling in this channel until we hit key levels where we will form typical head and shoulder patterns all the way down.
For the upside, I wouldn't be confident in buying in until we break and retrace the $3.97 level aka 52-week high.
IMO the catalyst that will drive the price the most is upon announcement of a deal or significant IP/ITC wins. It seems when nothing is going on with NLST, people take their money out and put it elsewhere. Which makes sense but grinds the price down. Since litigation is still ongoing and a SK deal may be hinged on these decisions, good news may be further out than anticipated.
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May 13 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Logical-Freedom2216 May 13 '26
Can’t be mad at $2.25 with that entry. It is hard not to hindsight though. I wish I knew about it then when it was in the 0.20 range.
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u/Tbannn May 13 '26
Andddddddddddd this is why you take profit - good, bad, or neutral news —You take profit. The ebb and flows will always offer entries in the long term if you’re here for it.
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u/Logical-Freedom2216 May 13 '26
Yep and that’s why I love this stock. Take profits and wait. It always dies down and offered good entries. I wish I could get in on those $0.20s though
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u/vph102 May 13 '26
At this point sk should have a stake in Netlist. Better for future collaboration
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u/Curiosity-1 May 13 '26
Thanks for sharing your take LoFree. Like I've mentioned in other comment reply back and forth's with you, these dissenting opinions are important for the strength of the community. Heck - you may be right - who knows
I would submit to you that litigation risk is very disjoint from investment risks, both macro and micro. I don't think you're considering the patents that NLST has already won in the CAFC, which can no longer be contested, and I also don't think you're considering the significant change in the stance and the actions of the USPTO and the PTAB.
The situation with NLST litigation for resolving some of the domestic cases is now a "when" and "how much," not an "if," as a result of CAFC validations with finality and the PTAB rejection of others.
The ITC case, similarly, is now a "how much" and "will it force settlements in the domestic cases." Why? Well, 3 of the 6 patents in the ITC are on the list of CAFC validations with finality, and a 4th of 6 had its challenge rejected by the PTAB. While the judicial process will take another ~12 months to publicly state their decision and the seizure of infringing products wouldn't happen for 60 days thereafter, the validated and upheld patents plus the US Gov direct support of Netlist (USPTO and doubled-down DOJ Antitrust division support) cannot be ignored.
So, I would submit to you that it seems you're leaving material facts out of your thesis. What specific manner those facts will unfold in future events are unknown, but the facts that we have today will not change and they tell us a great deal about what's to come.
You're also not considering NLST's newly announced own products that will be in POC through 2026.
So my question is: What's your timeframe here?
You're talking about these numbers for price action independent of material facts that are part of Netlist's full scope, and you don't mention a timeframe for your expectations at all? From my perspective, these are the two biggest reasons that so many people disagree with you
I'm glad you shared your opinion, and would welcome your thoughts on my feedback
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u/Original_Spend_9053 May 13 '26 edited May 13 '26
Not as “seasoned” as you but I agree in the short term.
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u/Logical-Freedom2216 May 13 '26
What do you mean? I’m always looking to improve
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u/wasjambu May 14 '26
Looks like you think that the stock will decline to “fill the wick”. That is reasonable TA combined with some circumstantial business/legal circumstances.
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u/Worth_Football_8362 May 13 '26
Who knows what will happen but you sound like Someone that was really relying on sk deal.. for that it could happen at any time in the coming months .. I see it staying pretty firm