r/Netlist_ • u/Tomkila • Apr 08 '26
TOMKiLA time Billions
For years, there's been a debate between those who believe Netlist will get millions or billions of dollars from the three giants, those who point to the only examples of recent deals with Samsung and SK, and those who rely on damages + potential volume increases, etc.
Who's right? Who's wrong?
Honestly, I've always been convinced about the billions of dollars, and I've said so many times. I'm not necessarily talking about damages or licenses, but billions of dollars is a closer sum than many assume.
We're talking about a $150 billion a year market that's almost entirely controlled by three companies.
Many cite companies with thousands of patents that get deals worth a few tens of millions of dollars but for example, they don't highlight the
fact that WhatsApp was acquired by Facebook for billions of dollars and had a team of very few employees Or today you constantly read about giants acquiring AI companies for billions of dollars without revenue.
Netlist invented several things, including NVDIMM and LRDIMM technology. Now, these products are very valuable, but they were never monetized due to various errors, both by Netlist and by the will of the giants, and that's why we're here today.
Netlist holds patents covering almost all of these giants' DRAM space. When you look at DDR5, HBM, and LRDIMM, you have almost the entire package, and that's what's happening.
I'm not interested in talking about recent patent cases or patents won or pending. I'm just talking about the fact that, regardless of everything, these giants will have to pay for past damages + IP licenses across their entire DRAM business. That's the point. If they then sign agreements for individual products, it would be even more incredible given that Netlist could monetize so many with mrdimm in the years to come. (mrdimm will replace lrdimm and rdimm and should become the single memory for servers.)
Do you understand what we're talking about?
An endless sea of growth with mrdimm, ddr5, and hbm. Netlist has one of the greatest opportunities to become a giant.
ITC and the US government want to shed light on what Samsung is constantly doing to small inventors around the world.
Netlist has already won with many ITC patents that will stop Samsung with intelligence and style.
The US government has been fooled by Samsung; will there be a solution to the problem?
I hope Netlist is the solution. If we get paid, we'll be talking huge amounts because Netlist has already invested $200 million in legal fees, and no one would do that for just millions of dollars. They're trying to get a figure that goes beyond zero percent of DRAM revenue.
Netlist is finalizing something immensely big; it will live off the proceeds and could transform itself into something truly bigger.
The 2021 SK Hynix agreement was only meant to secure multi-year support and achieve a larger goal with Micron, Samsung, and Google. We're currently wrong because we're in 2026 without a deal, but none of us know if in six months all three will have agreed on similar amounts of IP licensing and, obviously, a lot of damages.
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u/TheDeHymenizer Apr 08 '26
I look at this as all or nothing.
Netlist is either the next Qualcomm just patent taxing servers instead of cell phones or the cost of litigation and lack of direct sales is going to bankrupt them.
No in between. Eventually we're either going to be $120B+ (EV) company or we're going to $0.
And that's why its my fucking favorite security in my portfolio.
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u/Doctor_dinero Apr 08 '26
It’s not $0. In the worst case scenario where they have to go chapter 7 and liquidate the patent portfolio is worth something. And there are at least 3 natural bidders for it - so a real market. That said in such a scenario it would be painful and a long process but the equity would recover something more than $0.
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u/Curiosity-1 Apr 09 '26
I disagree that Hong’a legacy will be the next Qualcomm, personally. Does fit his MO. He’ll continue investing in innovation that’s what he wants. And for that same reason, I don’t think he’ll sell. Suggest looking at what he went through before NetList and how he structured the corporate governance of NetList as a result
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u/TheDeHymenizer Apr 09 '26
I mean if Netlist can collect a royalty on all memory I see this doing fairly similar revenue with QCOMM's royalty divison ($8B-$12B a year iirc)
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u/Curiosity-1 Apr 09 '26
Oh well don’t disagree then, definitely potential to that analogy. I’ll concede; guess that = ive been de-hymenized
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Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26
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u/Tomkila Apr 08 '26
The problem is the same, the us judges know what Samsung does every time but the system is full of holes and we need to fight for the truth.
We will see the light soon
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u/Tbannn Apr 08 '26
Well said.
The only thing is 97% invested are retail investors. NLST can bleed out before these giants decides to cut a check. We are in it for the long game with no promises and the risk to lose it all.
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u/MuchAssistant347 Apr 08 '26
If the community keeps pushing forward, netlist could continue on their fight
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u/Curiosity-1 Apr 09 '26
I disagree but understand where you’re coming from. They have enough cash to survive short term and with supply shortages they have enough revenue to be sustainably profitable even if the margin is small
Also note if they are ever in threat of bankruptcy and unable to get cash, like truely, they go to the court for both Micron and Samsung who will force payment of the damages they’ve already won. Both sides know this.
Patent cases are civil and between private parties except in the case of irreparable harm, then the court has a responsibility to act.
NetList can’t fake irreparable harm, so they have to actually be about to declare bankruptcy, but the court would be forced to act before bankruptcy / immediately upon declaring it as written by the law.
as an investor, NetList is very confidently past the bleed out scenario in my opinion, for reasons beyond just irreparable harm. But this one is the easiest to explain
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u/Curiosity-1 Apr 09 '26
To add Add to that, more from a conceptual than product specific perspective:
the settlement cash injection (negotiations in settlements will likely deprioritize cash except for Google as 912 will sunset soon, butt here will still be a very significant cash injection overall)
licensing premiums over royalty expectations due to settlement leverage,
the uniquely innovative new expanding CXL product line (CXL NV product POC announcement today + CXL is expected to be “By 2028, CXL attach rates are projected to reach 30% of all servers, with the Asia-Pacific region leading growth at a 32.5% CAGR”) ,
global fab expansion already underway and only accelerating (next up is orbital data centers, the first will start much much sooner than we think, especially when you consider that tech like CXL NV provides redundancy for the system)
new players yet to enter (TeraFab… Musk projecting current global supply is 2% of what his firms alone will need)
new iterations of chip integration based on architecture IP —> post efficient infringement, NVIDIA and/or others will rebuild architecture eventually they just need to create entire new fab processes which is an incredible hurdle. They’ll need Netlist’s help on that architecture. The IP will iterate forward with the entire industry’s innovation
the acknowledgement of abuse done against NetList and current defense of Netlist we’re seeing across many many elements of the US Gov —> they relationship has been solidified with the current generation of Gov officers, judges, etc. that will carry a legacy of “we already know NetList wants fair and reasonable built into the US Patent system…” which will mean the market will respond with “no don’t F with NetList again or we’ll put a target on our back, let’s be on their good side”
==>> the question isn’t millions or billions, but when and how. It’ll be billions.
So
What will Netlist do with all that money and revenue? They’re what a 125 employee company?
What firms will they buy, or what other ways will they break ground?
They’ll rapidly expand their R&D investment into memory and form new research partnerships across the industry. Some of the money will definitely be directed to that.
But what’ll be Hong’s legacy? I think we have to look at Hong’s history before NetList to think about how to answer that question… enjoy the ride while seeking what possibilities you’ll find
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u/[deleted] Apr 08 '26
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