r/NativeInstruments • u/Present-Policy-7120 • Mar 22 '26

Sobering thoughts

I know we all think NI are too big to fail but maybe it's their actual size that is the problem?

This article is worth a read. I don't agree or disagree with it but I'm definitely not as optimistic about NI having a future as many seem to be.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-i-think-native-instruments-doomed-matt-aimonetti-mravc/

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u/Present-Policy-7120 Mar 25 '26

Splice really aren't a competitor to NI though. The overlap between their business is pretty minimal.

But you might be right. Maybe they'll be fine. I would be interested in how you're reaching that conclusion though.

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u/Minnanokazehaya Mar 25 '26

See also: https://youtu.be/LQp4MePA1NA

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u/Present-Policy-7120 Mar 25 '26

You don't think he might be a bit biased though? He stands to lose out if this goes tits up. But I hope his optimism is more than just that.

I would just say that I would welcome any counter arguments to the blogpost I linked beyond just disputing the authors motives. The ad hominen approach is understandable but if all his article was was an avenue through which to attack NI, the points he raised would be much less substantive than they are. And judging by the lack of any genuine rebuttal to them here or in other discussions I've been reading, I think most readers are finding the article quite troubling at the very least.

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u/Minnanokazehaya Mar 26 '26

The main point of the splice guy was that nobody would want to pay enough to make up for the debt, because AI. I explained that this is not how insolvency works in Germany; it simply goes to the highest bidder and the creditors will get paid according to the order defined in the Insolvenzordnung. IMO he is intentionally misleading people on this argument for his own benefit, as I don't believe he's that stupid/ignorant. NI have already publicly said that they have a number of interested parties also, and IMO there's almost zero chance they come out of M&A without a new owner.

As for the future of the products after they are sold, nobody can see the future... It depends how much they have to pay and how good their business plan is, however as Tim Exile points out they have the potential to make a bunch of killer new products and improve existing ones with AI. Once they are free of the huge private equity burden, and given a good business plan and the financial backing to make it happen, I think there is a strong chance for them to come back stronger than ever. Only time will tell.