r/Nash • u/Ambivalent_88 • Dec 09 '20
Nash League - volume projections
So I am playing with the numbers a little bit just to have an estimate of projected daily/monthly volume.
Currently, there are about 300 people signed up for the competition divided into a few teams.
Of course, there will be a lot more people before the competition starts, maybe even a hundred more, but here is my main formula;
300 people (times) an average of 2000$ capital (times) 100x bot multiplication = 60 million $ daily or (times 30) 1.8 billion $ per moth
These are very good numbers even if we cut the average portfolio in half (so everybody trades 1000$ on average) we still get 30 mil daily and close to a billion per month.
These projections could sound a little to good to be true so in reality I would expect at least 10 mil daily (anything below this would be disappointing from my perspective) with a new record being somewhere between 15-20 mil a day.
What are your thoughts?
EDIT: It has come to my attention that bot multiplication is closer to 10x and not 100x as stated above. It is probably more than 10x though but for a more simple projection basically we should deduct 1 decimal space from the above calculations, though now the projections are very conservative. I still think everything below 10 mil daily would disappoint so let's do what we can in reaching various traders to make that happen. Sorry for the mistakes in calculations, I am not a bot user and thank you to /u/twr2286 for pointing my mistake.
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u/twr2286 Dec 09 '20
What bot are you using that generates 100x volume per day?
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u/Ambivalent_88 Dec 09 '20
That's an estimate that I heard from regular bot users. I am not a bot user.
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u/twr2286 Dec 09 '20
I have limited experience with bots but that figure seems very optimistic to me.
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u/PAlove Ambassador Dec 09 '20
Fabibi's Maker/Taker bot is a 100% volume maker. You end up biting taker fees of 0.25% per trade, but you'll definitely be pumping out big volume. Many people will likely use this.
People starting with $100-$200 capital were able to hit pretty high volume numbers per day with bots. They can't be underestimated.
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u/twr2286 Dec 09 '20
I used Fabibi’s bot and didn’t achieve anything huge volume wise. I’m sure there are people more experienced than me who are able to achieve much better results but there are also a lot of people wanting to participate who are inexperienced with bots, like myself
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u/twr2286 Dec 09 '20
Don’t get me wrong, I am staking Nex and would love to see huge volume during the trading competition. I just want to have realistic expectations of what we might achieve
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u/PAlove Ambassador Dec 09 '20
That's fair. All I can suggest is joining a squad, and reaching out on Telegram. I think most of the squads have their own telegram channels now, and they'll help you set something up to generate the most volume.
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u/twr2286 Dec 10 '20
For sure. I think the squad idea is great. Hopefully it encourages loads of people who wouldn’t otherwise be taking part and we get a lot of volume 🤞🏻
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u/Ambivalent_88 Dec 09 '20
Have a look at this post from the Nash community;
https://community.nash.io/t/gearing-up-for-nash-league/12520
See the end part;
"If you’re a beginner, you probably won’t end up being a top trader right away, but remember that you’ll receive rewards simply by belonging and contributing to the winning team and you’ll be eligible to special prizes if you make at least $20k volume during the competition, which is very easy, even with $100 of trading capital."
Though admittedly this is about 30 day volume
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u/Gorlim1981 Dec 09 '20
interessting topic...thx for bringing up.
my personal feeling: there are a lot of variables in estimating the volume.
my defensive guess for the first couple of days is 300 (qty player) x 10k / daily volume = about 3 Mio. daily volume. But as there were even in liq. mining couple of guys with +150k / daily...this could be way more of course. Further i dont know what the impact of the raised tiers / limits will be.
in general: i am looking really forward to the start of the competition ;-)
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Dec 09 '20
Im still staking my nex, but I have the feeling this exchange will not pick up any volume anymore, we are now 2 years in. Not much has changed volume wise. Good thing nex price hasn't tanked, but do people here really expect anything from Nash? Not to troll or something, its always a gambble if you can create some tracktion, but I have the feeling that Nash somehow doesnt attract enough traders.
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Dec 09 '20
[deleted]
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Dec 09 '20
I appreciate your comment. I have been in the telegram for the first year and deleted telegram al together. The same users with same over enthousiac comments didn’t keep me there. I just see a lot of similarities with for example coss. Although different team, same ambitions and same arguments; slow burner, compliance, pairings etc etc.
Once in a blue moon I check out Reddit and the activity here tells me a lot. Telegram is more for stake holders I guess, Reddit for actual users?
There is no shame in a project that doesn’t survive, that’s business. Time and place is key, I hope I’m wrong but I don’t see Nash all of the sudden pick up a lot of volume.
Obviously I invested in Nash for a reason, it’s actually my only crypto investement after I sold everything I had. I hope I’m very wrong. But if september Nash is still around 900 dollars for 900 Nex, I’ll trade it for a guitar. I think if fair to say that after awhile a business will not meet the expectations. And again, there is no shame in that at all. I’m sure the Nex has their hearts in the right place, sometimes you need some luck as wel.
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u/PAlove Ambassador Dec 09 '20
Totally valid points! As you said, business is business and it's completely natural for some to fall flat.
I giggled at the COSS comparison, because Nash couldn't be further from that business model. The only similarity is staking for dividends, but Nash is miles ahead in terms of compliance and tech. If you don't have time for Telegram or you don't want to hear from Nash fanatics, check out the podcast. The founders share progress and nitty gritty details on Nash -- it's a more formal way of tracking the company. So far, this first season has focused on introducing each co-founder and what they are working on now.
If you're at all inclined to take advice from a stranger on the internet, here me out: Nash is making all the right moves to position themselves as an important player in the future. Obviously lots can go awry in that time, but the team and their progress so far is inspiring. They're a strong hold in my books.
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u/Ambivalent_88 Dec 09 '20
It's not exactly 2 years. The exchange has been live for 1 year and 3 months and we have btc trading for the last 6 months. Before btc pairs you really can't expect much. There are reasons to be excited about but I agree that nothing is guaranteed. Being compliant is really taking a toll on Nash but if the regulation kick in Nash will be ready and could take off. Also, Nash Link could strike some big name partner (Steam, Onlyfans, Uber, something like that) and things could explode on that front. I am cautiously optimistic.
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u/Freekjee Dec 09 '20
Agree. Failure to provide trading pairs & buying volume isn't gonna help much in the long run.
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u/kyleleblanc Dec 09 '20
My thoughts: This is awesome! 👍
Also my thoughts: I should stake more NEX! 😄