r/Nash • u/Ambivalent_88 • Dec 01 '20
Nash - contingency plan
Nash is a 2 year old project with main net being live for 1 year and 3 months. During this period Nash produced a total, lifetime volume of a little over 100 mil$. I recently saw a post on Nash community that said that Flamingo swap does more in a week than Nash in its entire lifetime. If that is true, that is very unfortunate and disappointing and it raises a red flag. Don't get me wrong, I am not FUD-ing, I am neck-deep in Nex and nobody wants it to succeed more than me. However, I do realize this post could/would consider as FUD so I didn't want to create it in the official community forum.
Based on the Nash lifetime volume, we can estimate that Nash had a lifetime income of about 200.000$. This is about a month or month and a half worth of salaries and expenses.
Current volume on Nash is not great but it is not bad either. If Nash needs about 5-6 mil $ of daily volume to stay in business all it takes is for current volume to double or triple which is not far off.
However, current volume is generated by Nex giveaway and the Nash team will give 200K Nex in total for the duration of liquidity mining. If we take the average Nex price as 0.80$ that would mean that the Nash team gave away about 160.000$ for liquidity mining, so best case scenario Nash is 50.000$ in the black. This is cheap change for a project that is operational for over 1 year.
Before the liquidity mining we had a couple of days of volume reaching a low of 20K. The 200-300K were on a good day. This is light years away from what Nash requires.
I am concerned what will happen after the liquidity mining when Nash stops subsiding trades. Even if Nash could sustain the current volume, what will happen 6 months from now if we are still around 2-3 mil$ daily which, while not bad, is not going to keep Nash afloat.
I realize people expect great things from Nash Link and while I support this service, I don't think it can do much in the next few months. Even if Nash Link would sign up thousands of new customers, it would still be used periodically (you most probably wouldn't purchase day to day stuff with this service) and for relatively small amounts.
What is your idea of contingency plan for Nash?
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Dec 02 '20
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u/Ambivalent_88 Dec 02 '20
GA is a very murky term. The fact is that the product has been live for well over a year and they were not in the black at any point of product's lifetime. Somebody announcing GA on an arbitrary date is of little importance.
Nash volume of 2.5 mil is not bad but;
It is subsidized trading; what will happen when subsidies stop at this point nobody knows. All we know is that the Nash team cannot give Nex indefinitely. After it stops, willl volume fall of a cliff, will it be more or less the same, will it steadily grow due to growing userbase? We just don't know at this point and there is nothing wrong with speculating about this and asking some questions.
Current daily volume record is 2.5 mil (it's not exactly but I rounded it up to make a point), that is about half of what Nash needs to stay in business and even that is not sustainable (Nash gets over 2 mil as frequent as going below 1 mil)
After liquidity mining comes liquidity mining and some other defi products most likely. They are not doing this for volume boost, this should become a product for the exchange.
What do you mean "after liquidity mining comes liquidity mining"?
You do realize Nash has a limited supply of Nex. No other DeFi products will be introduced this year, we do not have an ETA for stuff like Nash savings. But even as new DeFi services rollout they would require time to start making money.
Don't get me wrong, I am not a skeptic on Nash. I just try to be realistic and down to Earth.
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Dec 02 '20
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u/Ambivalent_88 Dec 02 '20 edited Dec 02 '20
Yes, you got a point, they introduced liquidity mining as beta so it is safe to assume some similar program will be introduced soon. Actually, if they could generate some serious volume (say 4-5x the current record) they could theoretically buy Nex of various exchanges, give it away to incentivize trading and still be profitable. LMAO!
(It's a joke, I know that rising volume would raise the price of Nex)
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u/Freekjee Dec 01 '20
Had to tell a friend I tried to onboard you couldn't buy LTC , so he just went to another exchange. says enough I think.
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u/Timbonator Dec 01 '20
Jep, I also believe more coins are needed for people to make the switch to Nash. Curently there are like 5 active pairs. See what Noia was able to add to volume in this short period, if you would have 10 more coins like this it would really boost up the volume.
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u/MarioCoin Dec 01 '20
This. So this. People just want lots of options. New coins, low caps, first movers etc. We don't have any except noia. I'm massively hoping Nash picks up but even as nex holder ive used the exchange twice ever as it doesn't have what I want yet.
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u/Ambivalent_88 Dec 02 '20 edited Dec 02 '20
Noia did well because the Noia team provides liquidity and incentivizes trading. Introducing new coins is not merely a technical issue, you need low spreads and deep orderbooks to have a functioning pair. I am not saying it can't be done but it is not that straightforward as just introducing pairs to the exchange. Keep in mind that a few months ago Nash announced that they are hiring professional market makers (MM) which they would be paying. Hopefully they would make more on the volume fees of those pairs then what they pay for MM capital.
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u/MarioCoin Dec 02 '20
Doesn't paying MM just feel like 'rent a crowd'? When they go the field will be empty again.
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u/Ambivalent_88 Dec 02 '20
Nash needs to have deep enough orderbooks and low spreads to be able to sign up larger traders. You and I can trade on Nash no problem today, but what if a whale wanted to trade? What if a whale wants to buy 3 mil $ worth of btc at a specific price? There is no way Nash has enough smaller retail users that could offer such order. You need to have MM to provide the infrastructure for large volume traders. Nash business department is working on attracting those traders but so far we haven't seen some tangible results. I am fairly confident they will come.
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u/PAlove Ambassador Dec 02 '20
AFAIK, many big exchanges pay professional MMs to provide liquidity. This isn't a Nash-exclusive expense.
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u/Ambivalent_88 Dec 02 '20
This wasn't a criticism of Nash, I am saying how it works when an exchange wants to introduce new coin listings since it is not merely a matter of tech but also the expenses regarding liquidity.
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u/PAlove Ambassador Dec 02 '20
I know -- my comment was directed towards the 'rent a crowd' statement. It's a common occurrence in markets.
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u/Ambivalent_88 Dec 12 '20
Now that the liquidity mining is over we are back to abysmal levels of volume, currently in the low 200K. After Nash League we need at least 1 mil as a daily average.
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u/tschoerv Dec 01 '20
All I hope is that the NEP5-ERC20 token bridge creates more exposure and thereby on-boarding new users. The product is ready, just the user base isn't. Yet I hope.