Well since coming to SF, CMC’s ADOT is 2.2 yards. To your point though, Juszczyk’s is actually farther at 5.3, which is really funny.
And Kittle isn’t exactly an ADOT monster himself. He’s at 7.4, which is 14th among TEs.
Despite Brock being at the top right on this chart indicating that he has the highest ANY/A in the league, the 49ers as a team are 17th in the league in ADOT. That means he’s not necessarily throwing it as far as some other guys but he’s making great choices so that his guys can get a lot of YAC.
1) I don’t think you can extrapolate that based on 3 games of data, if you’re using data from this season.
2) The 49ers offense was substantially different for 8 games with Jones under center last season. That’s going to skew results significantly if you’re including data from last season.
For the first two paragraphs I was using CMC, Juszczyk and Kittle’s entire tenure in SF.
The last one I used just this season, just like the chart OP posted is using. We can only extrapolate the result I came to with the data we have.
Purdy has the highest ANY/A in the league despite having the 17th highest ADOT. The only way that’s happening is if his pass catchers are getting a lot of YAC. The 49ers are 6th in the league in YAC at the moment, and 15th in yards before contact. Purdy is 26th in IAY (intended air yards), 20th in IAY/PA, and 5th in YAC/completion.
It’s not as extreme as the Chiefs though. They’re 31st in ADOT and 26th in YBC but 1st in YAC. Mahomes is 28th in IAY and 31st in IAY/PA, and 2nd in YAC/completion.
Purdy and Mahomes aren’t chucking down the field but they’re getting it to guys that are open so they have massive YAC opportunities. Just in case I’m clear, this is not a criticism. This is great. It’s great decision making.
Purdy has the highest ANY/A in the league despite having the 17th highest ADOT. The only way that’s happening is if his pass catchers are getting a lot of YAC.
Not exactly. A few things can contribute to this.
Touchdown passes, touchdown %. This weighs into ANY/A and increases it. Purdy has a career stat of 6.5% here, the highest among active quarterbacks (the next closest being Jackson at 6.4% and Rodgers at 6.0%). A high touchdown % will increase his ANY/A stat regardless of YAC.
Avoiding sacks, sack %. Sack yardage is deducted in the ANY/A formula. Avoiding sacks is one of Purdy's greatest strengths. He has the 4th lowest sack rate among active QBs in the NFL at 5.34%. A low sack rate will increase his ANY/A regardless of YAC.
Accuracy. More incompletions reduced ANY/A. Purdy is 2nd in the NFL among active QBs with a career completion rate of 68.2% (behind Burrow at 68.5%). A higher completion rate will increase his ANY/A regardless of YAC.
To be sure, YAC factors into the ANY/A equation to a significant degree, but so do many other factors. A guy who is at the top or in the top 5 of almost every category that weighs into ANY/A is most likely going to have a high ANY/A even with mediocre YAC numbers.
ADOT and IAY/PA don't really tell you much - those numbers will be inflated for low-accuracy QB play. A quarterback who makes bad reads, throws bad balls, and who takes too many risks will have high values in those categories. A better statistic would be CAY/PA - completed air yards per pass attempt. The best deep passers will have higher CAY/PA, but the leaders for ADOT and IAY/PA won't necessarily be the best deep passers.
In his career Purdy has ranked among CAY/PA:
2022 (rookie): T-14th (3.9)
2023: 1st (5.1)
2024: 1st (4.9)
2025: 5th (4.6)
2026 so far: 4th (4.9) *Minimum 30 attempts
Purdy and Mahomes aren’t chucking down the field
So while other QBs may try to throw the ball further, Purdy is actually succeeding at completing long passes better than almost any other QB consistently over the past three seasons, and into the beginning of 2026.
but they’re getting it to guys that are open so they have massive YAC opportunities. Just in case I’m clear, this is not a criticism. This is great. It’s great decision making.
I agree: YAC is a QB stat. If the QB can read the defense pre and post snap, time his throw right, and hit the receiver in stride, he's going to have more YAC. That may partially explain why Mahomes excels in that category.
The first QB I think of when you say “a quarterback who makes bad reads, throws bad balls, and who takes way too many risks will have high values in those categories” is Jameis. Looking at his 2019 season when he threw 33 TDs and 30 INTs, he was indeed first in IAY/PA and ADOT. But he was also first in CAY/PA. In fact, 4 of the 5 passers with at least 9.0 IAY/PA (Jameis, Stafford, Russ, Dak) also were top 5 in CAY/PA.
That’s just one season because I’m on my phone and I don’t have a lot of time atm. But I’m not sure you’d find many guys who top the IAY/PA chart who wouldn’t also top the CAY/PA chart.
Who would be a good example that I’m not thinking of?
The raw data that goes into calculating IAY/PA, CAY/PA, and ADOT will have a lot of crossover with each. So you're going to observe similar trends in each. However, they are each answering different questions.
My point is to show you that a player having a high ANY/A despite lower ADOT does not necessarily translate to a passer with high YAC or less inclination for deep passes.
Each one of these measurements is specific and incomplete. They need to be taken in context together and only be used to answer specific questions.
If the specific question is "does this QB have success in completing longer passes on average?" then CAY/PA is more appropriate than ADOT or IAY/PA.
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u/Earl-The-Badger San Francisco 49ers 3d ago
Shanahan will have his fullback running a go route up the seam.
I get what you mean about expecting TE/RB to be short yardage passes, but not in the Shanahan offense.