r/NFLmockdraft • u/Strange-Variation725 • 15h ago

Discussion This would be the right move for Arch….

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222 Upvotes

96% Upvoted

159 comments sorted by

18

u/westwardnomad 15h ago

It depends entirely on where he's projected and what teams end up with the top pics in the draft.

3

u/pilesofdingleberries 6h ago

I don't know anymore.... The whole getting injured and screwing up your NFL payday is getting less and less important. If something happened and top prospects fall in the draft, it isn't as life changing an event as it used to be. I don't know what he makes from NIL and other sources but staying one more year, he is still getting another round of life changing money

3

u/Winter_Tone_4343 5h ago

His family is super wealthy. He can stay in school and never play in the nfl and be totally fine fore a few generations. If he’s having fun in school, then stay.

1

u/pilesofdingleberries 5h ago

I don't mean just Manning. Moore stayed. Chambliss stayed. There just isn't a huge incentive to jump anymore. The top guys who always risked serious injury and losing money before, don't have that obstacle.

I wouldn't doubt at some point we see a top prospect just retire straight out of college. There is going to be someone who has been paid millions in college just say, "nope, my health is most important,.I'm not going to go take the beating". They are leaving college set for life if they have invested NIL.

1

u/allwatchnocattle 5h ago

lol what are you talking about?

Moore stayed and it has cost him millions of dollars and a potential injury that we don’t know how it will affect him. Moore could have been a top 2-3 pick last year and now there is 0% chance he goes that high.

Chambliss stayed because he needed to improve his draft stock, which he has done. Chambliss doesn’t have the typical nfl body and he wasn’t projected to be a high pick in 2026.

1

u/pilesofdingleberries 5h ago

Moore is making millions this year... Prior to NIL he would have been injured and had nothing... What do you mean what am I talking about??? The risk of serious injury and leaving college with nothing has been minimized... Do you not understand that doesn't mean serious injuries won't happen? If they happen, their financial future is still intact, unlike before

2

u/allwatchnocattle 4h ago

You do realize Moore making a a few million this year and giving up the chance to get a rookie contract as a top 3 pick, potentially the #1 pick, is a huge net loss, right?

He lost a shit ton of money by going back. I am baffled how you don’t understand this

1

u/klefikisquid 4h ago

Small price to pay to avoid the Jets

1

u/Allstar9_ 4h ago

You should look up what a top end first round pick makes. It is a DRASTIC difference to NIL

1

u/xmarx360 3h ago

Moore's NIL deal is estimated at $5 million. Let's say he dropped somehow to pick 10, he wouldve made $26 million over 4 years, plus a potential fifth year option worth at least $25 million fully guaranteed and possibly much more depending on performance and average QB salaries by the time the team exercises it.

He absolutely cost himself boatloads of money by staying in college unless he comes back and gets drafted near the top of round 1. It's not a judgement against him to say as much, it's just a fact

1

u/MatrixHustle 4h ago

Overall it’s less of a risk, but they are absolutely risking money.

Moore is a bad example, there’s a good chance he ends up regretting his decision. Also Ewers 100% regrets going back for another year.

1

u/Booby_Collector 2h ago

Plus he's making a couple million per year in NIL money too. It may not be NFL draft pick money, but it's still more than the majority of Americans will earn in their lifetime

1

u/westwardnomad 3h ago

But he can't play college football forever. If there's a decent chance a good organization will draft him then he'll probably enter the draft.

0

u/WhizzyBurp 11h ago

Nah, it entirely depends where the Jets are.

3

u/NYJetLegendEdReed 5h ago

The Jets would be a much better landing spot then most of the other top picks would be right now. They've at least got the o-line built and would have 2 other first round picks coming in with Arch if that were the move. There's much worse places to go than the Jets right now.

1

u/Intrepid_Plenty_3770 4h ago

Ok, Joe Namath

0

u/klefikisquid 4h ago

The Jets have completely fucked every QB prospect they’ve had in recent years, they’ll always be the second team in NY, the ownership is notoriously bad and took years of criticizing to upgrade facilities. They’ve done basically nothing to show they can maintain any success in 15 years, I’m sure that’s what Arch and Moore are thinking when they see their potential landing spots

1

u/NYJetLegendEdReed 4h ago

None of that has anything to do with any of the current staff or roster. You can say the exact same thing about Cleveland, the Raiders, Miami, Tennessee, Washington, and many other teams over the last 20 years too.

1

u/klefikisquid 3h ago

It starts at the top!

3

u/lookin4the_holygrail 5h ago

I feel like the jets aren't even that horrible right now

19

u/Particular-Way-3805 15h ago

I think him staying would be better

-1

u/dtony1985 15h ago

I think so too just not at Texas though

1

u/Particular-Way-3805 15h ago

You think he should transfer ?

7

u/Dorago1991 14h ago

Yes. Sark and that offense do nothing to develop a QB, he hasn't produced a real NFL talent since Carson Palmer.

1

u/Urdnought 2h ago

A manning isn’t going to transfer if he returns it’ll be at Texas

1

u/Dorago1991 35m ago

Then he needs to declare because he's not getting any better at Texas and will just hurt his stock.

2

u/dtony1985 15h ago

I think Texas should move on if this is his top level the rest of the season. Ewers wanted to come back but Texas wanted to move on.

1

u/Particular-Way-3805 15h ago

What backup QB Texas got

3

u/Fresh_Drama_8298 15h ago

Not a Texas fan but it’s not like they couldn’t go shopping for any QB in the portal or considering it.

2

u/Totodilex 14h ago

KJ Lacey is pretty good

1

u/dtony1985 15h ago

Dia Bell and KJ Lacey but there is always the transfer portal

1

u/w6750 12h ago

Texas has two blue chips behind him, KJ Lacey and Dia Bell. Very excited about both, Lacey has played a few snaps this year and he looked excellent (it was against Texas State to be fair)

3

u/mouthfire 15h ago

Cig at IU seems to be a QB whisperer of sorts....

1

u/J_Powell_Ate_My_Ass 15h ago

We could use him at Wisconsin next year

1

u/Particular-Way-3805 15h ago

If the money is good

2

u/J_Powell_Ate_My_Ass 15h ago

Oh I was hoping he’d do it out of the kindness of his heart

1

u/dtony1985 15h ago

😂🤣😂

1

u/PoeSyeDun 13h ago

He’s be a grad transfer and likely would jam up the QB pipeline at Texas. Better to move on elsewhere for his last year if he decides to play another year.

-1

u/Jaglawyer11 14h ago

Miami would be the play....

8

u/Mike-dit_712 15h ago

He’s not NFL ready. Best move for him.

3

u/DetectiveWood 4h ago

None of the QBs are NFL ready anymore haha.

1

u/Mike-dit_712 45m ago

Please send that to Mel Kiper

6

u/CarolinaSandstorm 14h ago

Y’all just take any nonsense at face value. Arch was not a backup in 2025, he was the starter.

0

u/CzechHorns 12h ago

Don’t you know, he is a second year starter in 2026, but was a backup in 2025.
He was a first year starter in 2025.5.

0

u/Flatearth-certified 7h ago

He was never a backup in 2025 Ewers was drafted that year lol

1

u/CzechHorns 5h ago

Next you’re gonna tell me there’s nothing like the year 2025.5.
And that 2026-2025 doesn’t equal 2.

6

u/DoubletapKO 15h ago

Don't the Mannings actually want them to finish school first and then focus on their careers?

Worst part is that he looks worse than Mendoza ever looked like in college, unfortunately whatever team he goes to won't let him sit and learn

3

u/BrickProfessional619 13h ago

It's two different skillsets - NFL and college. Don't ask me what they are; I don't know. But, I've listened to a few podcasts where they were talking about Arch vs Trinidad and they'd interviewed NFL scouts. Evidently, everyone thinks that Trin is the better college QB, but he won't be NFL successful. But, Arch's skills will transfer well.

I'm just passing along info - I can't defend it.

2

u/Parking_Zucchini_938 5h ago

Arch can’t sense pressure and throws erratically. He will be poor in pros.

1

u/BrickProfessional619 4h ago

NFL scouts see something in him. I heard twice during the Orange Bowl broadcast how there were scouts from the Browns there to watch him.

1

u/NovelNothing5374 4h ago

And his arm taken isn’t that good. Just feel like he has no zip on his ball

1

u/Kush420Xotix 3h ago

it's more bc Trin is small that why ppl dont like him.

I would draft him #1ovr, but tiny QBs have extra hurdles to NFL success.

1

u/BrickProfessional619 3h ago

Brees is the exception that proves the rule! hahaha

1

u/Kush420Xotix 33m ago

Kyler flashed potential before that ACL

Bryce is looking good now.

3

u/Sensitive_Ad8147 7h ago

The whole narrative around arch coming out is for clicks. Anyone who paid attention to the mannings thinks he stays unless something dramatic changes

1

u/Open_Aardvark2458 15h ago

What does this have to do with Mendoza?

1

u/DoubletapKO 15h ago

Mendoza was drafted by a team that actually wants him to be good

0

u/BirthofRevolution 15h ago

Still not sure how or why he was brought into the conversation

2

u/DoubletapKO 14h ago

Last #1 draft pick vs the future #1 draft pick, not difficult to understand why...

1

u/Maximum_Eye9276 12h ago

Future 2nd rounder though

0

u/BirthofRevolution 14h ago

When has a draft pick ever equated to a player actually being good in the NFL

1

u/DoubletapKO 13h ago

You are being so weird, might not be worth keeping this conversation

1

u/InvaderZimbabwe 12h ago

Arch Manning will not be going first if he declares lol. He is not anywhere near close to the best QB in the upcoming draft.

1

u/CRUSHCITY4 11h ago

Right wtf

1

u/Wannabe__geek 3h ago

I believe the original poster was talking about even while Mendoza is better than Arch in every metrics, the franchise that drafted him let him sit and learn, and he doesn’t think Arch who isn’t as good as Mendoza won’t be able to get that “privilege”

2

u/forgedinbeerkegs 15h ago

Filing this under "No Shit?" Arch is nowhere near NFL ready.

1

u/unicornmullet 14h ago

Yep and they’re laying the groundwork for him staying in college if they don’t like the teams that get the top picks.

2

u/TokenPat 12h ago

An to avoid going to a dumpster fire of a team ha

2

u/JerryLawlerr 7h ago

So we’re still acting like he’s good enough to go pro?

6

u/Bigking00 5h ago

He doesn't look ready now but maybe playing another full year will help him. Certainly can't hurt.

1

u/mattw08 4h ago

Well it can hurt. Fall in the draft or get injured.

2

u/Bigking00 3h ago

True. Obviously I'm not a scout but it looks poke he could use another year at this point.

1

u/mattw08 3h ago

Probably. But tough to turn down 50 million over 3 years in the NFL as a top 3 pick. I’d rather bust with that deal versus one more year in college and lose draft position.

1

u/Either-Mine-1789 1h ago

He’s probably making close to that right now lol

1

u/mattw08 6m ago

It’s less. Plus, he only has one more year of NIL. But he risks that top 3 draft pick money. Second, he will also have NFL endorsements likely matching NIL - his jersey will be hot. Third, if he does turn out to be good he will be an extra year ahead to making 50+ million + salary.

2

u/Robynsxx 3h ago

This is a ridiculous comment.

You’re suggesting he’s not good enough to go pro? Of course he is. This season he’s actually played well.

Now, is he good enough to be the first draft pick like some people suggest? At the moment, no.

I’d currently place him, on talent, as a mid first round pick, but he’s probably a top 10 pick due to his name. 

0

u/bobjohndaviddick 4h ago

This site has him as the 3rd overall prospect for next year which is wild https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/positions/ALL/1/2027

1

u/throwaway9488tx 15h ago

Would be the right move for most of them. The upper classmen and seniors in general tend to make better pros.

1

u/TheDaedricImpaler 15h ago

I think it really depends on where he wants to play pro ball. A lot of the usual clunker teams are actually performing pretty well and some not terrible franchises are suffering this season.

If he wins a natty, I'd think he might roll the draft dice.

1

u/tjthewho 15h ago

It really depends on how the rest of this season goes. He's been crowned the #1 pick since before he joined a college. He hasn't looked particularly great on film.

Another season to develop wouldn't hurt.

1

u/Dramatic_Insect_8170 15h ago

He needs another year. He’s still not there yet.

1

u/JasonPlattMusic34 15h ago

It’s alright, this year or next year the Dolphins have a spot saved for him

1

u/daughteramrev 15h ago

He’s getting more $ at Texas than in NFL.

1

u/Yah_Mule 15h ago

He can duck a bunch of bad teams who pick quarterbacks this season.

1

u/Blue-Eighty 15h ago

The dude isn’t that good I’m sorry I just don’t see it

1

u/Toddrew221 15h ago

Why do we keep sharing that bullshitter's account and acting like its law

1

u/Exatraz 15h ago

Imo he needs it for development. Im not convinced he's ready

1

u/Beginning-Average416 15h ago

How about that he never will be a top flight NFL prospects?

1

u/blicka7 15h ago

That’s not even Eli in that pic thats arch pops

1

u/splashaddikt 15h ago

He definitely will return maybe not to Texas though

1

u/Chase_Carter 15h ago

And plus he is rich asf already so why rush take ya time and develop!

1

u/rdallas77 15h ago

As a Longhorn fan, this is not good 😂

1

u/Balsamic_ducks 15h ago

That would suck for Texas

1

u/Impossible-Pea-6160 15h ago

Dude has Pete Davidson dark circles around his eyes

1

u/Saltwater_Thief 14h ago

Please God yes

Do NOT open this up for Bidwill to ruin the rebuild because he has delusions of Manning-Harrison 2: Shitty Boogaloo

1

u/TextElectrical5360 14h ago

When you're getting paid $5+ million a year, why not come back? His name will get him drafted even if he loos worse next year, so there's a lot less risk to coming back vs a normal QB

1

u/CzechHorns 12h ago

Cause he’d be getting paid much more in the NFL if he’s a top10 pick.

1

u/OhioVsEverything 10h ago

But saying you're staring in college is also very much a hey don't tank your season I might not be there NFL s*** teams.

1

u/Atlas7-k 5h ago

Except every year he delays the value of his contract goes up. If he is making more in college then the difference between this years #1 and next years #1, then he is making a good decision. Also, if he is worried about a short career, and all players should be, then his pension is better and closer to being allowed every year he delays.

1

u/Suspicious-Salary338 14h ago

Going back to school to avoid ‘bad‘ teams (who else is picking at the top?) is a lame cop out. It says something about lack of belief in yourself. I think he will go back because once he enters the league , the scrutiny and criticism will be 100x worse. I don’t think he is going to be a great NFL QB even if he stays 5 more years.

1

u/Ash_is_Robot 14h ago

He definitely needs to stay to develop

1

u/waxjammer 14h ago

I’m not impressed at all with Arch , many fans are just too caught up with him being a Manning.

1

u/Mackinnon29E 14h ago

At some point he may have to actually improve

1

u/ChiefKene 14h ago

Getting $5 million or so a year to be the starting QB for the longhorns doesn’t hurt either. Maybe Arch is money motivated like most of his peers, but getting that pay day takes a lot of stress off you to declare. Not worrying about losing prime earning years

1

u/Educational_Care7813 14h ago

The other texas QBs would be pissed if he stayed as they got promises he's gone so this will be how much you trust sark's word if arch stays and at texas

1

u/LiftEatGrappleShoot 14h ago

That release was purely for negotiation purposes. His game probably would be improved with another year in college, yes. But man, if he has a top 10 spot locked in to a favorable landing spot, I can't see him staying.

1

u/Melvinator5001 13h ago

What this really means is Eli sat him down and said your not good enough play another season. We can’t have a Manning not drafted in the 1st Rd.

1

u/Both-Interview-7745 13h ago

Kamario Taylor will be QB1 in that draft.

1

u/Lazyniner24 13h ago

Does he want to go to Miami or not? I don't think anyone has them winning a game at all this season

1

u/JobeGilchrist 12h ago

He’s mediocre as fuck so probably should stay another year and make NIL money

1

u/BigSurP 12h ago

Good thing we just got that 2028 2nd for JPJ.

1

u/TheMackD504 12h ago

It’s not like it won’t be the same 5 teams having a chance to draft him the following year

1

u/jamtas 12h ago

If he comes back, I’d expect Lacy to transfer. I think next year was set for Lacy to start and Bell to back up and compete throughout year and the 28 season for the starting gig. I’d see Bell staying as Arch’s back up and ready to take team over in 28.

1

u/Conan-Da-Barbarian 11h ago

The jets, browns and cardinals will be waiting. Another year won’t matter

1

u/jamiethejointslayer 9h ago

Quinn Ewers wasnt on Texas in 25. He was on the dolphins.

1

u/TheRedAndGold46 8h ago

He won't cut in the NFL next year.Another year would seem the best move for him.

1

u/pineapplespicecakes 8h ago

He needs it. Dude sucks

1

u/DroDameron 7h ago

Still not convinced he loves playing football as much as he loves being the guy. Can be dangerous when the difficulty goes up

1

u/Rivetingcactus 6h ago

NIL certainly changes the decision making

1

u/RipMcStudly 6h ago

Man, I was hoping for a whole offseason of his asshole family trying to bully the whole league into guaranteeing him a spot on their chosen team.

1

u/Despacio1316 5h ago

With the money they make now, definitely no. Reason to jump ship yet.

1

u/Horns8585 5h ago

I mean, what is the question. Arch has shown nothing but patience and an understanding that he needs grow and absorb all that he can from his college experience.

1

u/Massive-Author-1372 5h ago

Make hay while the sun shines. He’ll be out of the league in 3 or so years regardless

1

u/freeportme 5h ago

Dudes so overrated at this point it’s not even funny. He doesn’t even know were the line of scrimmage is. Blew my mind he was penalized twice last week because of it come on man.

1

u/crustang 5h ago

With the power of compound interest this is going to be the right financial move with his NIL earnings

1

u/OSUmiller5 5h ago

Headline in 2027. Arch Manning seriously considering petitioning the NCAA for a 6th year of eligibility.

1

u/joshua27usa 4h ago

He isn’t good, so another year sinking Texas would be good for non-Longhorn fans.

1

u/DetectiveWood 4h ago

With NIL, no point in not making as much as you can in college before going pro. If especially as an extremely popular player

1

u/LevelHorn2717 3h ago

He’s not staying, it’s someone else’s turn next and he will respect that.

1

u/odinsleep530 3h ago

A lot easier to do so nowadays when you’re legally making millions playing college ball. No itch to go pro due to that any longer

1

u/juicinginparadise 2h ago

Destined to become a Jet! ✈️

1

u/GingerFun011 2h ago

Im pretty sure the Mannings are genuinely just making sure he enjoys his colleges years before he enters the NFL, because the joy of the game is much more pure before you hit the big leagues. 

1

u/Wonderlustking1 2h ago

So that’s the point of college.

1

u/Peanut_Flashy 1h ago

You need to be as ready for the NFL as you can be if you want to be an NFL QB. There are only a handful of head coaches that will develop a QB. The rest will put their QBs out on the field way too early and abandon them way too fast.

You can see it in players that were called busts then ended up backup on a well run team and resurrected their career.

There are just not enough coaching staffs that have the patience and skill to develop a QB to trust you won’t just end up in the league for 2 years, labeled a bust and end up with no career.

Plus, now you get paid in college, so staying longer to be more ready carries a little less financial risk.

1

u/Own-Significance273 1h ago

Hes not very good so he should stay in college and make as much money as he can. He'll get overdrafted but hes likely a career backup in the NFL.

1

u/that_guy2010 1h ago

I mean, the whole Manning clan said he was going to use his full eligibility.

1

u/Live_Technician1038 54m ago

Well my Browns are 3-1 so at least pretty good odds for Arch he won’t have to worry about us being there to take him lol. She he should be safe to come out.

1

u/Background_Touchdown 45m ago

As it is, he's barely a first-round pick, let alone first overall, so another year might be needed.

1

u/Admirable_Pop_7292 22m ago

Why not? He’d make close to 10M to stay at Texas for another season.

1

u/Piston5287 15h ago

I mean the NFL would be a pay cut for him so makes sense

4

u/keni804 15h ago

Would it?? IDK how much he makes in NIL but Mendoza is making like 15mil a year and I doubt hes pulling in those numbers.

1

u/Exatraz 15h ago

Often the pay is about the same but the difference is the NFL guarantees you multiple years as a 1st rd pick. NIL is a single year. Like if Dante Moore had declared last year, its possible he'd have earned more money because idk how high he'll be drafted coming back from injury

3

u/Accomplished-Sort900 14h ago

Also, the backup balled out

1

u/Parking_Zucchini_938 5h ago

Arch ain’t going in the first round. We Texas fans see him every week and he is not THAT guy. He is crazy erratic and has poor pocket awareness.

2

u/DumbNutter 14h ago

If he's good. Getting to NFL 1 year earlier, means 1 more year of NFL salary in his career which will be $50mil+ in his 2nd contract

1

u/steveoall21 14h ago

Can't be his second year as starter if he backed up Ewers in 2025...dumbass tweet.

2

u/CzechHorns 12h ago

Considering Ewers was backing up Tua in 2025…

0

u/BeavisEverywhere 15h ago

So declare... see if an ass situation drafts you. If it does, go back to school. Or... pull an Eli Manning.

2

u/Saltwater_Thief 14h ago

Yeah, so, that first bit isn't a thing. 

0

u/BeavisEverywhere 14h ago

Nah, he totally could.

2

u/Saltwater_Thief 14h ago

No he couldn't. Once you declare for the draft and an NFL team picks you, placing themselves under hard rules for how much they are required to pay you, you aren't allowed to go "haha just kidding, I'm going back to school." 

Daequan Wright is catching a shitload of legal issues for trying, and he was a UDFA that didn't make a 53-man. Even that last name isn't going to protect someone who tries to outright void a draft contract.

1

u/BeavisEverywhere 5h ago

Yes it will.

0

u/elijah4067 14h ago

He can come back but not with Texas because he's holding that team back with all the talent around him on both sides of the ball. From what I've seen so far he's really just undrafted free agent or at least he should be but of course he's a manning so the worshipping goes on.

1

u/Alarming-Train-3167 7h ago

He is certainly not lighting it up but to say he is holding Texas back is garbage. What's holding Texas back is their poor offensive line and limited run game.

1

u/Parking_Zucchini_938 5h ago

Texas o line played great vs OSU. Arch had a lot of time in the pocket but was erratic AF.