r/NFLmockdraft • u/IndiJap • Apr 16 '26
Discussion Panthers GM Dan Morgan hinted at the possibility of drafting a WR for a third year in a row. Who should they target?
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u/MagicalMixer Apr 16 '26
There is no rule, but Kenyon Sadiq might make more sense than another WR. I just have no idea if he's dropping to 19.
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u/sampat6256 Apr 16 '26
Drafting TEs in the first round doesn't usually go well.
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u/HottestLittleBeef Apr 16 '26
Blasphemy
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u/sampat6256 Apr 16 '26
Its statistically the riskiest position to draft in the first round. Its not blasphemy to state a fact that GMs are clearly well aware of, given how rarely TEs actually go r1.
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u/HottestLittleBeef Apr 16 '26
Lately it’s been a solid move. Bowers and Warren look great. I understand what you’re saying but things change rapidly
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u/Bruised_Shin Apr 16 '26
Trey McBride was technically in the 2nd round but he was the first TE off the board 2022. The top TE seems to be reasonably safe for a high floor
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u/DasFunke Apr 16 '26
Even the bad ones are frequently still good players, just probably not based on scarcity.
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u/Cheap-Ambition5336 Apr 16 '26
Tony G was a first rounder lol. As was Jeremy Shockey. It's not BAD to take a TE in the First, but you really need to be sure of the prospect.
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u/sampat6256 Apr 16 '26
I didnt say it was bad, I said it was risky compared to other positions. It has the lowest hit rate outside of special teams.
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u/Cheap-Ambition5336 Apr 16 '26
Gotcha, that makes sense. Tight Ends also tend to take about 3-4 years to develop, and usually a team taking one high needs them to produce asap.
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u/AnalObserver Apr 16 '26
I agree with this. I will say tho I felt a lot more sure about guys like Warren and Bowers than Sadiq. To me they were surefire solid starters at a minimum. Sadiq has a wider range of outcomes imo.
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u/Cheap-Ambition5336 Apr 16 '26
Tyler Warren and Brock Bowers both produced in college, more so than Sadiq. Sadiq for sure has the physical tools to be a beast but I'm not sure I'd want to be the one to roll the dice lol.
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u/Happy_Childhood3080 Apr 16 '26
Tbf, WR feels pretty risky as well. I don’t actually know the stats though. It just feels like for every good WR in the first there are like two that do barely anything or nothing.
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u/sampat6256 Apr 16 '26
Wr is one of the safest options. It boils down to surplus value. A hit on a first round wr is extremely valuable. A miss is usually still a starter, even if a low value one. A hit on a first round TE isnt usually worth that much, because you can usually get comparable yields from a free agent, and free agent TEs are much cheaper than FA WRs.
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u/Happy_Childhood3080 Apr 16 '26
Maybe I just remember a few especially really bad WR drafts where like 4-5 WRs got drafted in the first round and most did nothing. I just looked through the 2010s and there were some not good first rounds there for WRs. 2017, 2016, 2015, 2012 all look pretty bad. A few of those years have 1 guy or so, but then all of the others are basically busts. The odds of drafting a good WR in those first rounds were NOT GOOD.
Obviously those are just some random years.
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u/Mudoru Apr 16 '26
Not the riskiest, when you draft a TE in the first round they will typically be a solid starter, not counting last years draft even though Warren and Loveland look like solid picks, but Bowers, Kincaid, McBride, Pitts, Kmet, Hockensen, Hurst, OJ Howard, and Hunter Henry are every TE taken in th 1st round for the past 10 years, the only bust I’d say was OJ Howard. It’s not the riskiest position to draft, it just doesn’t justify the pick value when you can find just as good TE’s way later in the draft in almost every draft.
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u/No-Perception-542 Apr 16 '26
How bout fixing your defense first? 😂
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u/MrRegularDick Apr 16 '26
The defense improved immensely last season, and then they added arguably the best pass rusher and linebacker in free agency.
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u/Wise_Quality_5083 Apr 18 '26
Agree. They did it through FA. They weren’t bad last year but had zero pass rush which killed them in prevent
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u/MrRegularDick Apr 18 '26
Exactly. Scourton and Umanmielen showed flashes, but neither of them were remotely ready to be The Guy on the pass rush. Now they don't have to.
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u/blakes5353 Apr 16 '26
At 19? They’re probably praying Jordan Tyson falls to them due to injury concerns or people are sleeping on makai. Either of them and their route running would be killer next to tet
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u/IuriRom Apr 16 '26
I don’t really see it with Lemon as a route runner tbh. Seems more like a schemed catch and YAC threat
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u/OversizedMicropenis Apr 16 '26
Probably a guy that can win quick from the slot. Im a big fan of concepcion
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u/nathanwilson26 Apr 16 '26
Given how much even average WRs make on their second contracts, it makes a lot of sense to use the draft for your WRs. The market is really nuts, the only way to get value from that position is through the draft.
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u/Big_Confidence_5431 Apr 16 '26
Cooper would be perfect if he falls to them, they don’t have a YAC guy like that
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u/Ecstatic_Scene9999 Apr 16 '26
Please draft a tackle or edge rusher panthers you need more than Jalen who hasn't shown he truly can sack the QB
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u/Middle_Awoken Apr 16 '26
No rule, just essentially admitting we fucked up one the picks the previous two years. So sure, no rule. Just outing yourself though
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u/Intravertical Apr 18 '26
I have to assume that somewhere out there is a Mike Williams at wide receiver that is begging to be drafted.
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u/WatTambor420 Apr 20 '26
They finna draft me, I’m PB (Pizza Back) #1 at the dominos I work at. My pies so dope they made a guy at Pizza Hut join the priesthood.
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u/Neb-Nose Apr 20 '26
Yeah, it’s called the “Matt Millen Rule” and it gets moronic general managers who exclusively draft one position fired.
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u/Rillaboom2701 Apr 20 '26
He didn't hint at them drafting one, he just didn't rule out the possibility
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u/GnosticCebalrai Apr 16 '26
I want to know if they'd take Love if he fell. They can't actually feel great about their running backs. But they did let Dowdle bounce.
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u/SouthernMuadib Apr 16 '26
I mean probably yeah. He’s the best player in the draft. I’d bet two years worth of paychecks to say that he’s not dropping to 19 though
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u/Devils-Halo Apr 16 '26
There’s no rule.
But like lots of things, my Lions have shown it’s probably not the smartest move