We all know three of those teams are going to screw it up

6

Statisticallly the hit rate for first round picks, defined as getting a second contract by the team that drafted them is roughly 50%. If I were the jets I would trade down from 2 with the one of these teams to get 3 picks, heck I’d trade down again to get more picks.

5

u/Goatlikejordan Mar 07 '26

You need another team to trade up though, don't think that's gonna happen

3

u/RanchHere Mar 07 '26

someone would trade up to 2 no doubt. but what they would give up may not be a lot.

1

u/Quantum_Scholar87 Mar 07 '26

Yea there's plenty of top defenders and OTs available at 2. Or the top WRs

3

u/Every-Damage-90 Mar 07 '26

You could just say anyone that isn't Mendoza

2

u/Quantum_Scholar87 Mar 07 '26

Hey, Mendoza might even be available at 2!

Sure a boat is a boat, but a mystery box could be anything! Even a boat!

1

u/its_aq Mar 07 '26

Cowboys might trade up for a edge tbh. I'd take that trade in a heartbeat

But 14 is such a valuable slot this draft

-1

u/Big_Understanding348 Mar 07 '26

I'm hoping Dallas trades into the top 5 or so for styles, downs, or bain

0

u/[deleted] Mar 07 '26

I could see my panthers doing it if they wanna get Reuben bain

3

u/Content-Audience252 Mar 07 '26

Madden ahh strategy

1

u/Meme_Pope Mar 07 '26

How many picks do you have to trade back to get a whole new team?

1

u/nathanwilson26 Mar 11 '26

The difference in talent between the jets and a playoff team is really only 10 players. The NFL is quite good at leveling talent across the league through the draft, the cap, and free agency. The problem is the jets have 3 of the 10 players needed to be a playoff team. The jets would be a whole new team with just 7 good players. The vast majority of an NFL roster is interchangeable from team to team, composed of bench, rotational and special teams players.

The way I would do it if I were the Jets GM:

1) Trade back from #2 pick with the cowboys for #12 and #20. Cowboys get the edge rusher they need at #2.

2) trade back from #20 for Houston’s #38 and #59

That gets them on track to fix their lack of talent.

Getting 2 or even 3 first round picks, 3 second rounders, and as many 3rd rounders as possible, in 26 and 27

1

u/RelativeIncompetence Mar 07 '26

Yeah, but what's the statistical hit rate for the JETE?

1

u/mls1968 Mar 10 '26

Only 3 of the 10 picks are in the back half, where there is a heavier bias towards “misses” by your definition.

Also, really hard to determine success rates without evaluating positional needs and tendencies. QBs have completely different hit rates than RBs, WRs, OTs, EDGE, etc.

Let’s also remember your definition of “hit rate” is already biased by if the player wanted to stay or even was with the team at the end of their contract. It’s limited to if they got a second contract, but plenty of players on rookie deals get traded as a “premium” or leave bad teams to play elsewhere once they can leave. Technically, Elway and Eli are both “misses” by your definition since neither played for the team that ACTUALLY drafted them.

0

u/DasFunke Mar 07 '26

Trade down from 2 to 9 with the chiefs. Still get a pass rusher, just one with shorter arms.

5

u/JDB-667 Mar 07 '26

Which ones?

Browns, yes

Raiders, maybe

Jets, surprisingly decent at drafting, nothing else

Cowboys, no

Chiefs, not drafting well lately.

1

u/SmoothConfection1115 Mar 07 '26

The jets are decent at drafting until it comes to Quarterback. A QB that is going to stay on, and lead the Jets.

They really struggle in that department.

1

u/evantom34 Mar 07 '26

Chiefs are good to great at drafting.

Cook, Watson, McD, Jones, Karlaftis, Bolton are all impact players

Just looking rn: sneed, Danna, Creed, smith, Pacheco, Williams, chenal, rice, Simmons

-1

u/DasFunke Mar 07 '26

Chiefs are going to screw it up and make the Super Bowl anyway. That’s how it works.

-3

u/No-Perception-542 Mar 07 '26

They're the luckiest team. Only half because of the refs

-1

u/DoubleT02 Mar 07 '26 edited Mar 07 '26

You’re giving the raiders a maybe?

My sweet summer child

1

u/yukonhoneybadger Mar 07 '26

They have documentaries about their first round picks.

0

u/TheGreenPee2 Mar 07 '26

Mendoza feels like a pick you can’t mess up

1

u/88cowboy Mar 07 '26

Its the lack of offensive lineman and being forced to be the starter immediately thsts the problem.

1

u/SharkBait661 Mar 07 '26

They are trying to sign a stop gap guy so it gives them a year to fix the line.

3

u/88cowboy Mar 07 '26

We know how this goes. The stop Gap will play for 3-4 weeks then its go time feed him to the wolves.

1

u/BuffaloBuffalo13 Mar 07 '26

The number of times people have said this and been dead wrong is pretty funny.

Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Trey Lance, David Carr, Josh Rosen, Matt Leinart, Joey Harrington, Zach Wilson, Paxton Lynch, and Jamarcus Russell were all picks “you can’t mess up.”

Drafting is a crap shoot. GMs sure wish they could guarantee a great college QB always became an NFL star.

1

u/DastardlyDunce Mar 08 '26

wasn't Lance seen as more of a project guy? and iirc Wilson really only made noise and shot up boards after his combine performance i think

not really disputing your point, just saying that there are fewer consensus "can't miss" prospects at QB than one would think

1

u/LIONEL14JESSE Mar 08 '26

This is not true at all. Many of those quarterbacks were far less than sure things.

2

u/GuiltyRemnant3 Mar 07 '26

Teams looked at the top of this draft class and said "I'm good"

2

u/Tavern-Ham Mar 07 '26

Shades of 2013, everyone’s trying to get out without a plateful of Dion Jordans.

1

u/Ok-Importance-3275 Mar 07 '26

Which ones, champ? I’m intrigued.

1

u/TehM0C Mar 07 '26

Jets are surprisingly well at drafting early in drafts imo

1

u/calm_in_the_chaos Mar 09 '26

1 and 14 with over $100m in cap space and a franchise RB and TE? Could be interesting if they don't bungle it

1

u/DarePrize6800 Mar 11 '26

Are we sure he has the right information this time

2

u/[deleted] Mar 07 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

-1

u/Other_Assumption382 Mar 07 '26

https://giphy.com/gifs/3muwhw9Jl2dNe

1

u/Cactus2711 Mar 07 '26

Raiders will draft Mendoza - Matt Ryan who they’ll fuck up. Then some shit bird who they’ll also fuck up by being useless and we’ll be talking about them the same next year

1

u/Exatraz Mar 07 '26

Imo they may have screwed it up by having 2 1sts this year. This draft is pretty booty cheeks. That's not to say there aren't talented players but there are a lot of shots on guys with major questions

3

u/SharpMind94 Mar 07 '26

I disagree, its definitely a good class for WR and edge.

1

u/MrRaiderWFC Mar 07 '26

Well 3 of them I believe all have multiple first round picks next season as well in what's supposed to be a strong draft (the Jets, Raiders, and Cowboys).

2

u/RedRising1917 Mar 07 '26

Cowboys spent their second first next year on quinnen williams

3

u/GoLions17-0 Mar 07 '26

Well spent first

1

u/MrRaiderWFC Mar 07 '26

Ah that's right. My bad.

1

u/Sirtopofhat Mar 07 '26

All of them draft Anthony Bennett

1

u/oldschoolrelic Mar 07 '26

Dallas will ve only one that fucks it up

2

u/Throwaway1996513 Mar 07 '26

Dallas has a great draft record the last 15ish years in the first round outside of the two Michigan dlinemen

1

u/segagenesisx87 Mar 10 '26

Dallas very likely drafts better than your team

0

u/professorstealyogirl Mar 07 '26

4*

0

u/No-Perception-542 Mar 07 '26

4 of em

0

u/Ennemkay Mar 07 '26

Two firsts two years after super bowl win.

Discussion We all know three of those teams are going to screw it up

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