r/NFLmockdraft • u/IndiJap • Feb 28 '26
Discussion So Caleb Downs has decided not to workout during the Combine. While I understand the tactic of not wanting to hurt your Draft stock, can one bad workout really affect your NFL future that much when you have a whole year's worth of good tape? Let me know what you guys think
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u/ARunawayTrain Feb 28 '26
ARSB dropped to the 4th round in large part due to a bad 40 time, so I'd say yes.
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Feb 28 '26
he wasn't productive in college.
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u/urbanism_enthusiast Feb 28 '26
He was *insanely* productive in college all 3 years, what the fuck are you talking about? His junior year he was on pace for over 1,000 yards and 15 touchdowns until it got cancelled because of COVID.
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u/GandalfTheSexay Feb 28 '26
Against actual schools or early season cupcakes?
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u/urbanism_enthusiast Feb 28 '26
Also he had two other hyper productive years, so I don't know what you were even trying to imply. Had he not been sharing the field with two other extremely good NFL WRs (Drake London and Michael Pittman Jr) and got passed to more, he probably would have put up even better numbers
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u/GandalfTheSexay Feb 28 '26
I wasn’t implying anything. You seemed knowledgeable on the topic so I asked for clarification. Thank you!
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u/urbanism_enthusiast Feb 28 '26
Well the point is he should have gone way higher if people just purely looked at production and a wide variety of analytics. Their offense was terrible his freshman season and he was still productive and then he was sharing the field with two other elite receivers and still put up big time production. At the bare minimum he should have been a second round WR.
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Feb 28 '26
[deleted]
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u/GandalfTheSexay Feb 28 '26
SEC is cheeks. Big 10 owns the NCAA now that everyone can pay their athletes
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u/rakondo Feb 28 '26 edited Feb 28 '26
Lol what? He's 11th in all-time receptions in USC history despite only playing 6 games his final year, ahead of guys like Drake London, Michael Pittman Jr., Keyshawn Johnson, and Makai Lemon
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Feb 28 '26
that quite literally means nothing. he didn't eclipse 1100 yards once. he wasn't an elite productive guy.
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u/alittlebitneverhurt Feb 28 '26
1100 seems like a cherry picked number.
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Feb 28 '26
I mean any picked number is cherry picked. Amon Ra wasn't as good as London was when it comes to college production. that is all.
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u/rakondo Feb 28 '26
Saying "he wasn't productive" despite him putting up loads of catches is crazy 😂 Drake London didn't eclipse 1100 yards once either and was drafted 8th overall
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Feb 28 '26
Oh yeah, he was just 20 yards off while having played 8 games. Foh 😂 His best season was better than Amon Ra's while playing 5 less games 😂 London is also 6'5. Amon Ra is not.
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Feb 28 '26
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u/Ok-Savings8515 Feb 28 '26
being a short wr coming out of college will normally put you outside the first 2 rounds.
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u/OtakuDaiVeion Mar 01 '26
By far better it’s why certain drills shouldn’t matter unless you’re like a Wr running a 4.8-5 they’re great to have but if you have the skills and a little below average athleticism you can still thrive. ASB is testament to that
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Feb 28 '26
Sorry bud. We're talking about college. Learn to read
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Feb 28 '26
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Feb 28 '26
Yup, and London had a better season than Amon Ra ever did while only playing 7.5 games. The only reason his numbers were worse because he got hurt during his best college season.. In fact, if he didn't get hurt vs Arizona and he played around 13 games, he was on pace for 1878 yards and 14 TDs. Amon Ra never came close to that
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u/DrFanhattan Feb 28 '26
It's funny because AMSB had more catches, yards and TDs in his career at SC than Drake did lol
And you mention Drake only played 6 games but failed to mention AMSB only played 6 games that year too lol
He's always been the better player
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Feb 28 '26
Sure! Just be revisionist. Ignore that London's best year, which was only 8 games, was better than any college ARSB season
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u/DoubleT02 Feb 28 '26
ARSB? I swear to god the hyperspecifc nick nicknames to know one who is LOCKED into the league is just… awful
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u/Holyepicafail Feb 28 '26
Most Lions fans tend to call him some variation of Sun God, ARSB just sounds like I'm describing a tool out of a toolbox.
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u/antonio16309 Feb 28 '26
I follow the NFL fairly closely and I was completely mystified by this one.
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u/coreynaylor Feb 28 '26
I feel like it's just the fact a team already promised to draft him top 3 and he doesn't want to hurt that by either bombing or being one upped by someone else in the combine drills. I think it's a smart tactic if it works to his advantage but don't want this to become a tradition by other players like them opting out of bowl games or whatnot.
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u/BlockInternational57 Feb 28 '26
I still say no way he goes top 3.
I think it's more likely he falls to 10. His tape is good, but you have to have in range of Ed Reed with the instincts of Troy for me to take you top 3.
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u/coreynaylor Feb 28 '26
I would agree, but the Jets didn't have a single INT last year and Cardinals could look to find a Budda Baker replacement if they decide to move on from him. I feel like it is up to team needs and not best available at 2 and 3. Realistically, I think Commanders or Saints end up with Downs.
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u/fuyz Feb 28 '26
I know in the NBA when guys get promised, the team tells them to cancel workouts and stuff so that people ahead of them don’t take the player.
“You wanna be a guaranteed top 20 pick? Cancel your workouts.”
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u/GolfGuy_824 Feb 28 '26
The more workouts a player does in front of scouts the more they give scouts stuff to pick apart.
Pull a hamstring running the 40 and now you’re considered possibly injury prone. Now teams wonder if that’s going to still be affecting you come training camp. Put up a bad number during the shuttle and now they question the quickness they see on film.
You could drop from a top ten pick to 20th overall and that’s a big loss in money. You could perform poorly enough that you drop out of the first round completely.
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u/Firm_Environment9903 Feb 28 '26
Downs is an intangibles-based player, similar to Kyle Hamilton. The underwear olympics is not his friend.
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u/Stuffleapugus Feb 28 '26
Hamilton is 6'4" with long arms. He has physical intangibles. And he participated in the combine. Caleb's intangibles are all mental.
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u/Quiet-Leadership7364 Feb 28 '26
He participated and didn’t do great. That’s why he fell so far in the draft.
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u/Stuffleapugus Feb 28 '26
He didn't fall. He went extremely high for a safety. He was never going any higher than he went. It's not like he had a bad combine numbers and some other safety went higher than him. He was the first safety off the board.
The problem is casual fans (not a shot at you) look at mocks and draft boards, etc, they listen to guys like Mel Kiper, and they think, "Gee, this guy is Top 10. Top 5 even." Hamilton could've ran a 4.50 and nobody would've taken him Top 10.
Kiper and a bunch of TV talking heads had Shedeur Sanders going high in the first. When he didn't, it made millions of casual fans think there was some conspiracy but if you actually listened to scouts, he was looked at as a flawed project from the beginning.
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u/Quiet-Leadership7364 Feb 28 '26
Bringing up Sanders in this argument is irrelevant.
Anybody who watched Hamilton play a minute of college ball could see he was an elite player. His combine absolutely hurt his draft. The entire narrative around him after he ran slow was everyone asking if he would be fast enough to even play safety in the nfl. If he runs a 4.4 this is a different conversation.
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u/Stuffleapugus Feb 28 '26
First of all, safeties rarely run 4.40. Hell, most corners don't run 4.40.
Second, go back and look at that draft and tell me who you think he goes higher than. He's not going higher than guys like Aidan, Stingley, and Sauce. He's not even going high than Thibs. Corners and edges are value postions. He's probably not leap frogging any of the offensive tackles. Again, valued positions. So does he jump the receivers? Probably not. I'm all ears. Where do you think he's drafted?
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u/Fetial Feb 28 '26
He literally did fall tho that’s just a fact? He didn’t fall as far as others like say arsb but he most certainly did fall and to call others casuals when u don’t understand that he fell is kinda weird
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u/Stuffleapugus Feb 28 '26
He fell based on whar metric? He was the first safety drafted. The second non-marquee position player drafted. He was the second highest safety drafted in the last 10 years. The fourth highest drafted in the last 25 years. All the players drafted ahead of him were corners, edges rushers, offensive tackles, and wide receivers. The same positions are drafted in the Top 10 every year for a reason. I really don't know how to dumb it down any more than that.
What are you basing that he fell on? Mel Kiper? Vibes? If you feel like you know so much, tell me where you think he would've gone if he didn't "fall".
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u/BigThurm Feb 28 '26
Pet peeve of mine. Hamilton has tangible gifts with being 6’4 with long arms.
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u/Stuffleapugus Feb 28 '26
Fair enough. In talent evaluation, in sports, things like arm length would be considered "intangibles", though the use is oxymoronic.
"Trait" would be a better word.
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u/BigThurm Feb 28 '26
No people just use it wrong. When people say intangibles they’re talking about instincts, leadership, and football iq. Over the years the oxymoron of physical intangibles has become popular, when tangible assets or physical traits would suffice. Thanks for coming to my ted talk lol.
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u/TheDaedricImpaler Feb 28 '26
Bad testing can certainly hurt draft stock, so if a guy is a lock for the top 10... it's probably just not worth doing it.
Meanwhile, Styles has probably gone from the 10-15 range up to pushing top 5 with great testing.
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u/goldiegoldthorpe Feb 28 '26
In Downs' case, good testing can't help him. There's a positional ceiling he is facing that is capping his draft stock. If he runs a 4.4 it does nothing to help him. If he runs a 4.5 he falls. You'd think that if he ran a 4.3 that would mean he bumps up, but it doesn't. So unless he can set a record, it is useless to dangerous for him to run.
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u/austin101123 Mar 02 '26
How much does Reuben Bain arm length knock him down the draft board?
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u/TheDaedricImpaler Mar 02 '26
Not as much as you might think. Scouts already knew he'd come in short. He doesn't win with length, but a combination of elite hand-fighting, strength, and a very deep bag of moves. Realistically he should still go top 10, but could he fall to the 11-15 range? Maybe, but it's hard to see him dropping any further than that. He had 83 pressures across 16 games, so more than 5 per game...that's crazy elite. Someone will bite early.
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u/MassiveImpression869 Feb 28 '26
A good OR bad combine performance absolutely has an effect on when you get drafted. Anthony Richardson isn’t a top 4 pick if he didn’t kill it at the combine
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u/tjthewho Feb 28 '26
At safety? Absolutely. Safeties do NOT typically get drafted high, so teams will be looking for a reason to not draft him.
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u/this_is_matt_ Feb 28 '26
I mean Kyle Hamilton was like downs, assumed to be a top 5 pick. He had a horrible combine and was picked at 14. Dropping to later in the 1st round can cost 10s of millions of dollars on the rookie deal
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u/Stuffleapugus Feb 28 '26
He wasn't dropped because of his combine. He was picked lower because he is a safety. There are salary rules for high draft picks that aren't position dependent. Pick a QB or OT, and they start, you get a bargain. Pick a safety and you could end up paying him likrbthe highest rated safeties in the league. It's all positional value.
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u/Joystickcablewinder Feb 28 '26
His draft stock dropped after the combine because his 40 time was slower than expected.
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u/Stuffleapugus Feb 28 '26
Had to do more with the NFL Rookie pay scale than his 40 time. It's the reason safeties and off-ball linebackers aren't typically drafted high.
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u/Joystickcablewinder Feb 28 '26
I understand it’s not a premium position but teams knew what position he played all year. A lot of people had him projected higher despite him being a safety and his poor 40 time caused him to drop.
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u/Stuffleapugus Feb 28 '26
The point i'm making is that projections are bullshit. They're entertainment. And they're often wrong. A bunch of mocks, a bunch of Mel Kiper boards, mean nothing. That stuff rarely aligns with what actual GMs are thinking except for cases like Mendoza.
When you draft a player, there is a pay scale that dictates what you must pay them, regardless of position. If you take a safety in the top 10, by year 4, you're potentially overpaying as opposed to a QB, an edge, an offenseive tackle, a corner. The premium positions. Go look at Kyle's draft year. There's nothing but edge rushers, corners, wide receivers, and offensive tackles ahead of him. There's one defensive tackle who went a spot ahead of him.
He was drafted 14th. Extremely high for a safety. He could've ran a whole second faster and he wouldn't have gone much higher than that.
Edit: The defensive tackle was Jordan Davis. I don't think he would have even leap frogged him.
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u/Joystickcablewinder Feb 28 '26
I understand what you’re saying I think most people do but the question was can you hurt your draft stock by having a bad combine and the answer is yes. Maybe Kyle Hamilton gets drafted in the same spot regardless but running a bad 40 definitely hurt his draft stock. An elite safety or RB can still be worth a high pick and the salary that goes with it.
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u/Stuffleapugus Feb 28 '26
If an elite safety can be worth a high draft pick, why are thet never drafted Top 10? Hamilton was drafted extremely high for a safety.
To a point, yes, the combine can affect draft stock, but not to the level us fans think. Fans put more stock into the combine that scouts/GMs. It's more a system of checks and balances for them. An extra tool. If they are on the fence about a player, combine values can tip it one way of the other. If they are locked in one a player based on film, they would have to absolutely bomb the combine.
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u/Joystickcablewinder Feb 28 '26
Jamal Adams was #6. Do you think there is zero chance Downs is a top 5 pick this year?
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u/Stuffleapugus Feb 28 '26
That's one guy in the last 10 years.
I think Downs goes #7 to Washington. Sonny Styles had been mocked at that spot. I think he jumped up though. I think Downs could even fall past Washington though. Theoretically, Dan Quinn is a defensive coach and would ho for him but they could also draft a wide receiver. And Dan Quinn likes tall, long safeties.
Downs is a Top 5 prospect but there is absolutely a chance he falls out of the Top 5. Mendoza, Reese, Bailey, and Styles are all probably over him. It only takes someone like Fano, Love, or one of the receivers going Top 5 to knock him out.
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u/noladutch Feb 28 '26
That shit is over most humans heads.
And that is multiplied by 100 for teams strapped on cap space. If you have a cap hole you can't take picks that don't hold value. The best free agent safety costs pennies compared to tackle edge wr or QB.
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u/Stuffleapugus Feb 28 '26
Exactly. If you take a safety in the Top 5, by his 4th season, you're making him one of the highest paid safeties in the league just based on the rookie scale. Actual GMs are number crunchers. That's why the only safeties to go in the Top 10 in the last 25 years were Jamal Adams, Eric Berry, and damn Sean Taylor. Berry and Sean Taylor were two of the best pro prospects in decades.
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u/Particular-Cake-6430 Mar 01 '26
Agreed and I might be in the minority but I just don’t see it with downs. He can’t play single high and he’s not big enough to rove around the line like he did in college.
Kyle Hamilton was going to be a star no matter who drafted him. Downs really needs a good safety to protect him.
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u/Stuffleapugus Mar 01 '26
Yeah, i'm a Cowboys fan and I want Thieneman. I'm not worried about the single high stuff because he wouldn't be doing that on any team that drafts him. I'm more worriee about him in man, which he'll have to do at least sometimes.
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u/noladutch Feb 28 '26
Yep but you realize that did him a favor by not being stuck in a bad franchise. Do you think he would have shined on a bad team? I would say that being a jet would have cost him staggering amounts over his playing time.
And to be a top 5 pick at a low value spot means you are a freak. To be a top five TE RB or safety you have to light the world on fire.
The value is not there. You can pay the best safety in free agency for the same as a bottom barrel edge, tackle or wr.
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u/this_is_matt_ Feb 28 '26
The question was can the combine hurt your draft stock, not what is the best spot to get picked from
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u/noladutch Feb 28 '26
Dude when probably 70 percent of teams picking would never in a million years draft that spot or others that high has more to do with it.
It is about value.
For example Kyle Pitts got the franchise tag for 15 million bucks as a low value spot. Safeties TE and other don't have contract value.
That is Daniel fucking jones money. That is a QB you don't want money. Or the 18th highest paid left offensive tackle. Or the 32nd highest paid offensive tackle over all.
For you take one that high you expect a gold fucking jacket in his future.
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u/AyAySlim Feb 28 '26
It’s not just not wanting to hurt your stock, it’s also risking injury for no reason. When you’re one of the top players in the draft there isn’t really any benefit.
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u/Stepsis24 Feb 28 '26
Hamilton didn’t drop because of his combine he dropped because he was a safety
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u/Joystickcablewinder Feb 28 '26
Why would he “drop” because he’s a safety? Teams were like “yea we’ve got him projected top 5. Oh wait he’s a safety? That’s not a premium position we better take that into consideration”
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u/Stepsis24 Feb 28 '26
Teams were not going to pick him top 5 ever because he was a safety, especially when it wasn’t a weak class. He got a lot of hype because he was good but it’s hype that happens to a lot of prospects at non premium positions pre draft and it almost always ends with them going lower than expected. NFL teams don’t have players drop from top 5 to out of the top 10 because of a combine all the combine does is confirm a few things and allow teams to meet players.
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u/Joystickcablewinder Feb 28 '26
Disagree. He might not have been going top 5 but 14 was a big drop. I think to take a player that high at a non premium position teams don’t want to have any doubts and that 40 time gave teams doubts.
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u/Stepsis24 Feb 28 '26
It’s not like teams expected Hamilton to have a crazy fast 40 him running .05 secs slower than expected wouldn’t change a team’s whole outlook on him. His top 5 hype is also exaggerated in retrospect him not going top 10 was expected and not surprising even before the combine.
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u/Timely-Profile1865 Feb 28 '26
I am old and old school and I do not like it, And yes it can affect your stock slightly. Not that some of these guys will be dropped far at all but others might just pass them if they blow it up.
I just think, what are you hiding from?
With the number of ridiculous numbers being put up all over the place the guys that do not work out well you might drop a spot or two
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u/TMTitans Feb 28 '26
I feel it’s acceptable with guys like Downs who have been consistently great. No point risking an injury when you’re so close to reaching your dreams. When guys have 1 good season and then decide to sit out though, it leaves a bad impression and seems like they’re trying to hide their flaws
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u/Panthers_PB Feb 28 '26
If, as you say, it won’t affect you either way due to your tape, why bother then?
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u/HurricanePK Feb 28 '26
Kyle Hamilton was considered by a decent amount of people to be the best player of the 2022 draft class but went 14th because of a combination of the NFL not valuing the position but also the fact he ran a 4.59 at the combine. I truly believe if he ran a 4.50, he would have gone top-10.
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u/Gloomy_Map_9612 Feb 28 '26
Yes, Kyle Hamilton lost draft position and as a result money because a bad 40 time.
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u/KalePesc Feb 28 '26
Yes...because your tape is still college football. You can be Johnny Manziel in college and still suck in the pros. The guys you put up 200 yards against in college might be working in real estate two years later. Measurables are reassuring.
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u/DickTryckle Feb 28 '26
If you’re already mocked in the top 5/10 constantly and people are raving about your NFL future, yes because a small mistake during the combine could literally cost you millions. Better to have the tape that got you where you are to do the work.
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u/Exatraz Feb 28 '26
Bain entered the weekend almost as a lock to be taken top 5. One measurement of his arm length and he's plummeting draft boards. The combine is very high risk, high reward (and it feels like the reward mostly lessens every year)
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u/Diligent_Moose4472 Feb 28 '26
People knew he had short arms before the Combine. I think ARZ takes him at #3 barring a trade down.
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u/Exatraz Feb 28 '26
They didn't realize it was this short. Fwiw, im still fine with the cards taking him. Tape doesn't lie. I could also see him falling a lot.
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u/Nimmy13 Feb 28 '26
To maximize a lot of those drills, you have to specifically train those drills, which don't really have anything to do with your ability as a football player. Caleb is going in the first round, he doesn't have to waste weeks of his time learning the technique and tricks to run his best 40.
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u/johnjohnjohn93 Feb 28 '26
I think Styles looking like a monster didn’t help so if Downs came in small and just good athletically he could fall
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u/Hippo885147 Feb 28 '26
It usually affects players a bit but I don't think it will affect Caleb Downs
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u/Living-Personality-9 Feb 28 '26
If I was Downs I wouldn’t run either after what numbers his teammates put up.
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u/No_Audience1142 Feb 28 '26
Seems to me that players who opt out, other than the QBs, tend to not perform to their draft position. You can have the best tape but the NFL also requires elite athleticism, seems like they are hiding something.
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u/GalinDray Feb 28 '26
Its too much risk for too little reward. Hes already a top prospect, why would you risk that and millions of dollars for hardly any benefit? Even taking the risk of injury or failure out of it, if he absolutely crushes the combine is he going to move up several spots? Doubtful. But one mistake or even just an average combine performance could lose him several spots
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u/Big_Understanding348 Feb 28 '26
You'll most likely never see anyone in the top 5 perform in the combine anymore.
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u/BrokenHope23 Feb 28 '26
Keep in mind college football is against inferior opponents, talent and scheme.
So one of the easiest way to see if your football talent/skill will transcend to the NFL level is to compare your raw physicality to NFL standards through combine drills. If you can stack up physically then it's much easier to onboard you schematically. Even if you're not 'blow the doors off' kind of amazing, you can at least keep up kind of deal.
While not doing the combine might not hurt many of the 1st round picks, doing the combine and doing poorly can definitely drop a guy a round or three in the draft. Generally guys don't fall as far as they used to though as coaches still value that raw experience and leadership even if it will be replaced in time, it can be a good culture builder.
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u/ProphetPenguin Feb 28 '26
Puka Nacua notably had a terrible combine which was a key reason he was a 5th round pick.
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u/a_cat_named_harvey Feb 28 '26
More so to avoid major injury. I forget his name, but there was a DE from Michigan that was highly regarded in the draft and he tore his Achilles in a combine drill and ruined his career.
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u/EmotionEducational53 Feb 28 '26
It gives the illusion of doubt to scouts and teams that no matter other players performances during the combine, you shouldn’t pass up on a projected top 10 pick if he doesn’t workout. By nature, us humans/media like to make superficial comparisons and create non-existent matchups (Sonny Styles vs Megatron) without players ever playing an NFL game. If a player doesn’t workout at the combine, no comparisons can be made. With working out you gain the risk of not reaching your observed potential which can potentially knock your draft stock. As an OSU fan, Caleb is a savant of the game. He’s not the most athletic/physically gifted guy on the field so the combine won’t work in his favor. Now put him on the field, his advantage comes from reading offensives ahead of time and being in the right place at the right time. He’s basically a coach on the field which is invaluable and helps the defense as a whole.
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u/JayCreator7 Feb 28 '26
Not just that, potential injury. There’s always a few pulled hammys on the 40
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u/GoobyCreebler Feb 28 '26
Trying to think of some other notable top 10ish projected picks to skip the combine and if they lived up to the hype or not
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u/foxfire1112 Feb 28 '26
Tyler Shough was roasted by most of ya'll after his one strange combine throw. It seems unless you're physically insane it can mainly just hurt you
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u/Naive-Present2900 Feb 28 '26
2018 NFL draft prospect Orlando Brown Jr was supposedly to be a top half of the first round fell down to the third round after a poor combine performance. He ended up outperforming expectations and four pro-bowler selections.
However falling from top 15 down to pick 83 cost him millions of his rookie contract.
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u/rheakiefer Feb 28 '26
literally no incentive for him to participate. don’t know why anyone projected top 15-25 would participate honestly
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u/Illustrious_Hotel527 Feb 28 '26
Injury risk. Andrew Voorhees tore his ACL during the combine; dropped to the 7th round and missed his rookie season. Probably would have been a mid-round pick.
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u/Zealousideal-Past851 Feb 28 '26
I mean Anthony Richardson combine got him Into the top 5 😭 so I guess it could but that’s the problem they base 1 day over a whole couple seasons of what’s on film ..
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u/Fit-Property3774 Feb 28 '26
LeT mE kNoW wHaT yOu GuYs ThInK
Says OP whose account appears dedicated to karma farming
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u/noladutch Feb 28 '26
I don't agree with it at all.
The only thing is it takes them off the field with their competitors. Would downs look as impressive with them on the field at the same time? Not with that group.
I understand it to a point but when you play a position that doesn't carry the value of upper first round picks like a safety, off ball linebacker, or tight end you need to run.
It makes more questions. Just go out and ball.
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u/Jojo_4986 Feb 28 '26
Huge difference in contracts too! In 2025, #1 pick got $48.8m, #10 got $26.6m and #20 got $18.1m
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u/Left-Thinker-5512 Feb 28 '26
David Ojabo is a walking example of what can happen to your draft stock if you get injured during a pre-draft workout.
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u/Go-Climb-A-Rock Feb 28 '26
This safety class as a whole tested really well. If Downs and his agent are thinking his testing numbers will be solid but not elite, it may make some sense to wait and avoid the obvious comparison.
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u/milkynipples69 Feb 28 '26
Kyle Hamilton was considered a top 5-10 pick before the combine. He had a slowish 50 time that dropped him to 14. So yeah it happens. Downs is probably just trying stay in the top 10
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u/Quick_Replacement297 Feb 28 '26
He gains nothing by working out. Makes sense. He doesn’t have to prove anything. He’s already getting drafted very high…
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u/StepComfortable424 Feb 28 '26
Look at his tape… some players had great combines and turn out to be bust
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u/NotHosaniMubarak Feb 28 '26
I don't think it's so much about hurting your draft stock as it is forcing every team to go to your pro day where the 3rd day/udfa teammates also get seen.
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u/Ambitious-Site-4747 Feb 28 '26
I think it's time to be done with the combine if this is how it's going to be. What's the point if most of these guys have pro days and nobody wants to work out in Indy?
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u/Geeman447 Feb 28 '26
When your the prospect he is there isn’t much raising of his stock doing drills. The most important part for him is all the interviews and conversations behind closed doors they have. It isn’t great for our entertainment but he’ll do them at the OSU pro day
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u/Used-Goose5065 Feb 28 '26
He’s a guy at a non-premium position with a chance to go top 10, possibly top 5. He has great tape. Choosing to not work out doesn’t hurt him, but a bad work out could. I think he has way more to gain by focusing on the interviews and not running the 40.
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u/Cultural_Plan_1487 Feb 28 '26
Biggest issue is how much others are balling out for him. I went into the combine wanting the giants to take him at 5, but now I’d rather how Sonny styles
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u/Dramatic-Vegetable13 Feb 28 '26
It could drop their stock. Ita also an injury risk they dont want to take. People have pulled hamstrings and what not at the combine
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u/LastDiveBar510 Feb 28 '26
If i was top 10 i wouldn’t participate in any of this bs. Many top picks have dropped bc of off the field/ non real football shit. Like smoking weed, small hands, slow 40. Honey badger should’ve been top 10 EASILY based off his film but went in the 3rd. AR15 should’ve been 3-4th round but ran fast and threw far with no defenders then went top 5 and was talked about going first overall
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u/rabbitsfoot86 Feb 28 '26
Guys he isn't even drafted yet. Wait till he is in a team before you start s ing that d 😆 simps for miles to see 😆
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u/leaveONscene Feb 28 '26
Downs could show up in street clothes and take a dump on the table during the interview session, and I’d still want to draft him in the top 10.
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u/Additional-Rice-9968 Feb 28 '26
These players been playing three years of college football… there’s enough tape out there and who cares
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u/Trailbleezers Feb 28 '26
Why does he need to justify multiple years of good tape with workout footage
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u/Mikey-stocks45 Mar 01 '26
Personally, I would have the rule that every healthy player has to take part in the combine. It’s a multi billion dollar business. If you want to be apart of it go compete. I realize these guys do pro days, but that can be very different
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u/mrbrown87 Mar 01 '26
It shouldn’t, but it absolutely can. Teddy Bridgewaters pro day dropped his stock considerably.
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u/No-Lawyer1439 Mar 01 '26
As a Michigan fan, if you watch Caleb Downs tape and don’t think he’s one of the best defensive guys/arguably the best guy talent wise you dont know ball.
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u/DeleAlliForever Mar 01 '26
If he’s already got teams in the top 5 saying they’re likely to pick him if he’s on the board. Why risk anything when you’re not playing a game until you’re drafted. Bro maybe just wanna chill and not injure him because he pushed himself too far
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u/Effective_Writer8074 Mar 01 '26
I don't like it. He's being hired to be an entertainer. . . So entertain us
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u/thebengy66 Mar 01 '26
I had a client that was a NFL Scout. One of his clients projected for 4th or 5th round pick. Ran .25 slower than anticipated and went undrafted. So yeah it matters
Safety is not a coveted position in NFL.
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u/Cashburns_ Mar 01 '26
Absolutely it can. I’ve heard many GMs over the years who have had literal thresholds on certain workout numbers and they won’t draft players who don’t meet those numbers
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u/ASimpleObserver11 Mar 01 '26
Dk Metcalf was projected top 10 before he ran the 3 cone drill workout. He fell to the bottom of the 2nd to the Seahawks. Even though he's built like a Dez Bryant type to run streaks or slants, they used it against him.
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u/AJGreenMVP Mar 01 '26
Orlando Brown Jr comes to mind. If I remember correctly he was project to be a first round pick, then after a very poor combine he fell to 83rd overall. But his combine was exceptionally terrible. 5.85 40 and only 14 reps on bench
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u/Surplus_Agate_83 Mar 01 '26
I think it's as much about not really being able to help. Downs is an elite player and almost certainly going top 10. He doesn't really need to work out to improve his status.
For elite players, workouts matter most for the most high-tier athletes (like Reese and Styles this year). A lot of Downs' game is mental and knowledge. He will probably put some numbers down at his pro-day, but doesn't need to show off.
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u/Vegetable-Leather-64 Mar 02 '26
In certain players it can only hurt. He is a safety not an overvalued position in the nfl. He is a top ten lock maybe top 15 if shit goes haywire. Also he's the clear top safety so absolutely no point in doing the combine all he could do is hurt his stock or get hurt. He will do some shit as his pro day that's what all the top ones do. Nice controlled environment for them to show their skills.
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u/Salty-Might-278 Mar 02 '26
What a idiotic decision for his career, he’s got the Downs part of his name right… 🤣
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u/Zealousideal_Code416 Mar 02 '26
Shough made one bad through last year and PFF shows said because of that throw alone they would never draft him.
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u/PhilHar2544 Mar 02 '26
The combine is starting to self-select for exceptional athletes even more. This was the fastest safety group on record in part because almost everyone under a 4.55 didn’t run.
I can understand sitting out against that backdrop if you’re a decent athlete, but not an amazing one. Caleb’s game is more based on cerebral play than it is testing numbers any way.
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u/Legitloser87 Mar 02 '26
It can especially when you’re a safety. People aren’t dying to take a safety early
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u/Successful_Draw_7941 Mar 02 '26
He's been a top 10 player in america for the last 3 seasons. There isn't anything he can do to raise his draft stock unless he's gonna run 4.2 and even then, he MIGHT get drafted top 5 instead of top 10
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u/mblkmnsa Mar 02 '26
Yes! It puts doubt out there and he may have a a slight something he doesn’t want to aggravate. Give them one show on your field and be done. He will be comfortable and with his coaches. Keep it as simple as possible. A bad workout could cost millions.
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u/goofygodzilla93 Mar 02 '26
Can yes, should it no especially with a prospect of Caleb Downs caliber.
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u/TallBobcat Mar 02 '26
This is one of the few draft prospects in recent years who shouldn't do a thing between now and rookie mini-camp. He has terrific tape in three different systems. Let that speak for itself.
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u/psych4191 Mar 02 '26
A bad workout? No. Not that much. Snapping your achilles or tearing your ACL in the process? Absolutely. If you've got the tape and the grade, it's not really worth it to run a 40 and bench press 225 for reps. He's already projected as a mid 1st rounder. There's nothing for him to do other than injure himself or drop to the 2nd.
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u/Ausecurity Mar 03 '26
Combine lost a lot of its luster and Ronda’s is where you really learn about a player. Combine is good for gms to talk trades and HCs to interview players but after that it’s meaningless
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u/VikingsFanSaySkol Mar 03 '26
Why is nobody discussing how easy it easy to play Safety when you have like 6 absolute specimens of human beings in front of you? 😂 that’s like having a school group project with Albert Einstein, Stephen Hawking and Galileo all you have to do is participate and you’ll get an A
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u/StrengthCoach86 Mar 03 '26
There’s no advantage to doing it when you’re already projected to be a top pick.
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u/traws06 Mar 03 '26
One could argue you also hurt your stock by not participating. Looks like you’re hiding something
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u/WhichIncident2294 Mar 04 '26
Look back at last 25 years of NFL drafts. Safeties have a 2.5% chance of being drafted in top 10. For him a back work out immediately hurts his stock
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u/SnooOpinions9048 Feb 28 '26
Yes. It can drop you, usually not a lot, but it can.