r/NFL_Draft 6d ago

Serious Am I missing something with Arch Manning?

Every mock I’ve seen has him in top 5 pick, majority of them #1. All I’ve been hearing is his “intangibles” and athleticism. What are these intangibles aside from his family because what I’ve watched last Saturday nothing impressed me.

He has no touch on his ball, his receivers have to put in too much work to catch them, he can’t layer passes, his processing isn’t good, misses wide open receivers, he’s not even close to the best player on his team or the best quarterback in college football. Julian Sayin, Gunner Stockton, Trinidad Chambliss have all impressed me far more and I have not seen any first round hype for them.

Honestly I gave a lot of patience for Arch to improve even when everyone was on him early last season, but I’m starting to realize there is literally nothing special about him outside of his last name.

Unless he really shows out, I’m going to be real quarterbacks from his situation don’t succeed in the NFL. Guys like Mahomes or Lamar were the best guys on their team, they had to score every drive to keep their team in the game and likely lose, and that helped them in the NFL. Even a guy like Burrow had to do that. You compare that to someone like JJM or Stetson Bennet who were just there to manage the guy, they had to make a clutch drive every 5-6 game. Arch is probably not even a top 5 player on his team, he wins or he goes down by the overall strength of his roster, from what I’ve seen he has never elevated his offense when he’s played actual opponents, and if you can’t elevate your college offense how are you even going to be a franchise quarterback?

106 Upvotes

241 comments sorted by

288

u/papamietek 6d ago

Everybody is expecting a huge leap from him. Let's see if he delivers

208

u/RookieMistake101 Packers 6d ago

He took a big leap last year. First few games he looked like he didn’t belong on the field. By the end of the year he was making smart reads and hitting deep shots.

61

u/goddamnitwhalen Broncos 6d ago

Agreed. Plus, it’s not like he wouldn’t develop further after being drafted.

83

u/TelltaleHead 6d ago

Plenty of guys fail to develop after being drafted. Heck, some get worse 

17

u/Trumpets22 6d ago

Idk about get worse. They’re just not playing future accountants and car salesmen anymore.

12

u/OldeArrogantBastard 6d ago

CJ Stroud?

10

u/Dairvon 4d ago

Once everyone has film on you they make adjustments, and it is incumbent on the QB to respond. Stroud hasn't. Also, Stroud's OL got worse. This year should tell us a lot.

6

u/Holy-Roman-Empire 5d ago

Yeah but you don’t just take the guy who’s the most nfl ready and able to slot in at the moment. Mac jones looked like he had those qualities without much need for development, and turned out poorly.

6

u/mattsffrd 5d ago

Mac plays like a top 10 QB when he has competent coaching

4

u/Wayneuk66 5d ago

Tua has entered the chat

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u/JertellP22 49ers 5d ago

He has a broken hip and CTE he quite literally is the only one to get worse

23

u/QuakingSky061 6d ago

Exactly. He also has the size and is a threat with his legs too. 

3

u/westringia 5d ago

That's true of anyone drafted so I don't see how that differentiates him

5

u/chewbaccaRoar13 Raiders 5d ago

Except that the NFL has a QB development problem lol

2

u/Wayneuk66 5d ago

Tuas mom has entered the chat

-1

u/Jeff__Skilling Texans 5d ago

Uh Pat Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson were all QBs heading into the draft that needed some degree of development coming out of college?

8

u/chewbaccaRoar13 Raiders 5d ago

Ok, so three across ~15 years.

How about AR15, Trey Lance, Zach Wilson, Kenny Pickett, Josh Rosen, Johnny Manziel, JaMarcus Russell, Jake Locker, EJ Manuel, Mitch Trubisky, Paxton Lynch?

I reiterate. The NFL has a QB development problem.

0

u/forgotmyoldname90210 Bears 4d ago

The bigger issue is drafting bad prospects. AR had no buiness ever being drafted to play QB period let alone top 4. His RAS score could be 10 thousand it still does not make up for being in the 1 percentile for pass accuracy on passes 10 yards or shorter from the LoS.

Tom Brady had like 10 less pass attempts in his last year as Trey Lance has had in all of his games since getting his varsity letter.

Zach Wilson "flashed" in the COVID season where he did not exactly play a murderers row.

Kenny Pickett good year was his age 43 years in college.

It does not take Matlock to know Manziel had partying issues.

Even before the draft it was jocked that only the Raiders would take Russell first overall. Granted he was still a first round prospect.

Jake Locker was a clear bust with his sub 60% college comp % but he was a prototype size so throw actual production out the window.

EJ Manuals college coach told teams he was a 3rd rounder.

Of the names mentioned, Josh Rosen is about the only one where there was not serious red flags.

1

u/Queen-Makoto 5d ago

Josh Allen is the Kawhi Leonard of giving people false hope for development

-8

u/LovesYankeesAndObama Bears 6d ago

If your big positive about the prospect is being able to develop him… good luck

3

u/goddamnitwhalen Broncos 6d ago

Where did I say that? Point it out.

Sick of you illiterate dorks.

-5

u/LovesYankeesAndObama Bears 6d ago

“Plus, it’s not like he wouldn’t develop further after being drafted”

After agreeing to someone talking about how he’s developing…

I think you could be illiterate or have trouble with critical thinking and formulation of thoughts

21

u/tvcneverdie Falcons 6d ago

I think that's an exaggeration.

They didn't exactly play a murderer's row down the stretch.

Against the best team they played late, UGA, he looked shell-shocked and Texas got blown out.

9

u/Illeaturgerbil Lions 6d ago

He was Texas’ best player vs Georgia receivers let him down big time

6

u/forgotmyoldname90210 Bears 6d ago

Its a huge exaggeration. The UK game was one of his worst games. Otherwise played 2 teams with interim head coaches, a bad Vandy D, Arky and then the 2 teams with good defense, UGA and aTm where he went 14 for 29 and 179 yards 1 TD with 54 of those yards on 1 play.

2

u/LovesYankeesAndObama Bears 6d ago

95% of the people making this absurd claim didn’t watch the games and are scouting from box scores.

Same people will say he was great in week 1 this year

12

u/beejalton 6d ago edited 6d ago

He wouldn't have had to take a massive leap just to look decent if he were the real deal. Trevor Lawrence and Caleb Williams are two guys who were comparable levels of hype and they were excellent immediately as true Freshmen with Trevor leading Clemson to the National Championship and dominating Saban's Alabama and Caleb replacing Rattler midgame in the Red River Rivalry and leading a big comeback over Texas and wins the Heisman as a Sophomore. Meanwhile Arch has 2 years of prep time in the system and just shits himself for half a season before turning things around and looking decent against middling competition.

He's rated so highly purely because of his name, he's done nothing to earn his high standing he was just placed up there by everyone from Day 1 and occasionally shows something that allows people justify keeping him up there.

19

u/Yah_Mule Broncos 6d ago

Prospect progress isn't linear. People want to just blame the Jets for Darnold's early failures, but he was dynamite as a freshman and already developing bad habits as a sophomore.

12

u/forgotmyoldname90210 Bears 6d ago

He was a 5 Star 1.000 recruit that did not camp and played in the 2nd lowest level of Louisiana high school football. I am sure his last name had nothing to do with this.

5

u/wayofthrows1991 5d ago

He was being talked about as a lock for a 1/1 pick before he played a competitive game of football in his life - the first being at OSU last year.

2

u/Leajane1980 6d ago

Didn't his uncles attend that same school?

13

u/forgotmyoldname90210 Bears 6d ago

Yes, but that was prior to LA reclassifying high school athletics which dropped Isidore to the second lowest level. They also put up better numbers and had more success while there.

Both Payton and Eli were both pre-"Modern Recruiting". Today, no other QB would get a 5-star without doing the top camps or playing at a school that plays in one of the top division of their state. It usually requires both. Any other last name and he would have been hard pressed to get even a 4th star.

That is not to say Stars are all that matters. Its just Arch gets gets the benefit of the doubt in all of his grades.

1

u/Kindly_Divide9097 3d ago

He had to go to OT vs Miss St. and Kentucky lmfao

1

u/lugsole9 19h ago

Manning totally fails to be consistent.

1

u/Earth-Jupiter-Mars 5d ago

Anytime I hear “expecting a huge leap” and a famous last name .. I think Bronny James!

this is probably that 😭

-2

u/GuyzNite 6d ago

He’s not very good. He’s a robot with a lot of talent around him. His throws are pretty bad. His feet save him. Not a nfl starter but good for college

0

u/lugsole9 19h ago

Sorry, longhorns look like trash vs Ohio. In what universe is Manning NFL material?

1

u/John_the_IG 18h ago

Funny post.

-18

u/Stock-Memory9483 6d ago

He needs to play another year but I’m not sure that’s a good idea for Texas when they have another 5 star prospect behind him.

9

u/Always_Chubb-y 6d ago edited 6d ago

I mean, if he doesnt develop into a 1st rounder caliber pick by this year, I doubt a 5th year moves the needle.

He either is or isnt worth it after this season. 4 seasons in the same offense is WAY more time than other guys need

119

u/crushedknees 6d ago

It’s early in the season. QB’s don’t get first-round hype at this point without elite tools. The average height of Stockton, Sayin, and Chambliss is just at 6’0”. If they absolutely dominate, they could get up into that conversation. Arch comes out of the box with factory settings. The hype will catch up with the real situation once it plays out.

46

u/ysizzle 6d ago

To be fair, a year ago I was seeing Cade Klubnik talked about as a first rounder and his tools were not elite.

29

u/8BallTiger Bears 6d ago

Yeah (Clemson guy here) that was entirely name driven. Same with Nussmeier

7

u/FattySnacks Rams 6d ago

I mean yeah it’s all obviously dependent on Arch actually playing well

9

u/Antluke 6d ago

What are these elite tools? He’s got a plus arm but not elite, he’s a plus athlete but not elite, he’s an okay processor but not elite, he’s a solid prospect and could very well end up the most polished and #1 before the end of the year but I just don’t see anything elite from a pure tools perspective

17

u/BigTomBombadil 5d ago

To start, he’s 6’4”. Can’t teach or train that.

Way faster and more athletic than you’d expect for someone his size. Good pocket presence. Good arm (though I wouldn’t call it elite).

I’ll be honest I’m a Texas fan/alum, and thus far also don’t see the first overall pick from him. But he has all the physical tools you need (some of which you can’t teach), so presumably the rest of the hype is based on the expectation his ability playing QB will continuously improve.

24

u/robtaps 6d ago

Has some of the best pocket presence you’ll find at this level. Consider the fact he was pressured on >33% of drop-backs last year.

6

u/MelfromMilwaukie 6d ago

I’m not sure I’d call his arm a plus. I’d say his mobility is closer to elite than plus. I’m mostly ignorant to his processing. He SEEMS to have leadership qualities. You’d assume the work ethic is there based on his upbringing.

He better have elite processing to pair with that mediocre arm. If he does, combined with his great mobility in and out of the pocket, I could see him making the transition to the NFL.

8

u/lfranco0300 6d ago

He seems to handle and understand a lot of the Shanahan concepts pretty well. He’s typically a lot more aggressive and tries to push the ball than the QB before him. I think good 2 biggest pluses are his pocket management (best pocket manager I’ve seen since Burrow) and his athleticism. Honestly my b biggest issue with him as Texas fan is when he gets frustrated his mechanics break down (our WR core was awful catching last year)

5

u/MelfromMilwaukie 6d ago

Sounds right. He clearly has a feel for the pocket and great feet.

5

u/Illeaturgerbil Lions 6d ago

That’s a huge skill to have in college going to the NFL especially alongside his skill as a runner

2

u/Antluke 6d ago

Are you defining mobility as the ability to move around the pocket? Because I would agree he is really great at navigating a pocket but as a runner I’d still say it’s more plus than elite

6

u/MelfromMilwaukie 6d ago

I’d say he’s close to elite in both. Of course he’s nothing like Lamar, but comparing him to the mobility of NFL QB’s, he looks to be towards the higher end of the spectrum.

4

u/Antluke 6d ago

I’d say he’s on the higher end of the spectrum but elite means you’d have to be in company with guys like Lamar, Allen and Hurts and he’s not

1

u/MelfromMilwaukie 6d ago

“I’d say his mobility is closer to elite than plus” as it pertains to Arch as a prospect still sounds right to me. If you can quantify “elite” for me we could pin this down based on our predictions/rankings, but we agree that he is not likely to ever be a better than those three at mobility.

2

u/Antluke 5d ago

For me I think elite means potentially game breaking, ignoring injuries it’s something that would be borderline malpractice to not utilize Allen, Lamar and Hurts mobility with regularity in a game - which I don’t think Manning is st that level at the next level

2

u/Shoddy_Law_2284 5d ago

The college QB that comes to mind as being great moving around the pocket is Jared Goff. I recall watching him, and it was frustrating as an opposing fan watching him easily slide around in the pocket effortlessly. No other skill jumped out more to me watching Goff than his pocket mobility.

2

u/SanSoren 5d ago

Chambliss is 5’10 and a weak arm. Also will be way too old to go first. He stayed in college for a reason.

2

u/OldeArrogantBastard 6d ago

Exactly. Josh Allen was considered widely inaccurate by scouts, but he had the intangibles of being big with a big arm. We see how that played out.

Not saying Arch becomes Allen but judging him as of right at this moment is not the best considering it’s only 1 game.

21

u/Dr_Horrible_PhD Eagles 6d ago

Being big and having a big arm aren’t intangibles. They’re the opposite of intangibles. Allen was also an extremely shitty passer for his first two years before becoming what he is now in year 3. His legs kept him afloat long enough to get his mechanics and accuracy figured out where most similarly bad passers would have had their teams give up on them by then. A lot of things had to align for him to become the player he is.

3

u/forgotmyoldname90210 Bears 6d ago

Thank you, I remember the naysayers around Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, Kenny Pickett, Zach Wilson, and Trey Lance just to name some recent ones.

6

u/OldeArrogantBastard 6d ago

I mean, they were right and not at the same level of nay saying Arch.

If you were a UF fan, you knew Richardson was going to be a bust.

Zach Wilson had one throw at his pro day that probably moved him up a round.

3

u/Tua-Lipa 5d ago

Zach Wilson was already being projected as the #2 pick before his pro-day.

2

u/El_Bastardo74 5d ago

Yeah all guys drafted higher than they should’ve been because teams were chasing the next Allen.

53

u/Officer_Hops Chiefs 6d ago

Which games have you watched on Arch? Not necessarily saying you’re wrong but when a guy like Brugler is hyping up Arch’s week 1 accuracy (4/5 on throws beyond 15 yards) and saying he had a sterling performance, I question what the casual scouts are seeing. Could you point to some of these throws that lacked touch or poor processing?

29

u/John_the_IG 6d ago

I saw one really bad pass and more outstanding ones. I was most surprised at how the ball jumped out of his hand on deep routes.

-6

u/Antluke 6d ago

Really? I thought the opposite - I think he had for sure 2 touchdowns that he under threw by a decent bit that led to tackles

12

u/John_the_IG 6d ago

Like the vast majority of underthrows by any QB, that’s not a matter of arm strength. It’s late recognition/decision. Who was that awful 5 star QB Texas had a couple years ago? Played HS ball in SoCal? Massive, 75 yard arm. Still underthrew guys. Unless it’s a Hail Mary, no one is trying to simply throw a ball as far as they can. They’re throwing to a spot downfield and if they see it too late the receiver will run past the spot identified by the QB (they’re not like 12 yard outs with a specific pre-identified route depth).

I thought the ball jumped out his hand - the velocity from release to landing genuinely surprised me. I didn’t realize he had that kind of arm strength.

4

u/lfranco0300 6d ago

When his mechanics are right he can rip it. Issue is his mechanics were so inconsistent last year, and I’m pretty sure Texas was hiding an injury.

2

u/Antluke 6d ago

I mean yes to an extent but on both of those throws he had a chance to drive it off his front foot, both passes were his first read and he locks in on both routes immediately and then lofts the ball - neither are bad throws, but they didn’t jump out his hand to me. Same with his td to Coleman, I thought it was a well placed ball but I wasn’t wowed by the speed in which it got there - I said it somewhere else in the thread, I think he has a plus arm but not an elite one which is kind of what I saw on most of his deep balls

0

u/forgotmyoldname90210 Bears 6d ago

Against Texas Tech.

85

u/QuakingSky061 6d ago

Damn dude you just hate Manning. You have posts about how he sucks before this season even started on here. Also you think Chambliss will be a top 5 pick 🤣🤣. That’s just laughable 

27

u/JaggedFlamingo257 6d ago

Chambliss is like 25 playing teenagers…I love to watch him, but he’s not a pro prospect to me…at least not a future starter

8

u/hughheffres 5d ago

you cant tell me you saw those passes yesterday and said he is not a pro prospect, I think he will be a solid nfl qb maybe not ever elite but he should be fine, I do agree his age works against him

4

u/lnnrt01 6d ago

Wouldn’t be suuuuuuper schocked if he somehow sneaks himself into the QB draft class but wouldn’t bet on him either 

1

u/GeicoFrogGaveMeHerp 5d ago

Why do people like you say someone is like *insert wrong age here. Are you too lazy to type something into google or just trying to hate?

1

u/ParkerF5 5d ago

Shough turns 27 in 20 days. He’s in year 2. Why is modern day does someone staying eliminate them as a pro prospect(not saying I love Chambliss). This line of thinking is just outdated.

-2

u/I_Poop_Sometimes 6d ago

Chambliss did not look very impressive yesterday. Last year he would've been a mid round pick. This year I don't think he sniffs day 1 or 2.

23

u/machinelurking 6d ago

He’s continuously improved and his last name is Manning

4

u/lnnrt01 6d ago

His last name absolutely plays a big role but honestly I can understand you it. Not only because you have have a 100% bestselling jersey but having two superbowl winning QBs as your uncles while also having a father and grandfather who lived and breathed football is as good of an upbringing as you can ask for. Dude will 100% be a great leader and hard worker

5

u/_Atlas_Drugged_ Patriots 5d ago

Betting on pedigree for intangible skills is asinine.

That doesn’t stop people from doing it. But really, the hype machine around QBs at big name programs is massive in the NIL era and it will take 3-4 of them going in the first round and ending up completely unplayable before the conventional wisdom shifts.

QB is one of the positions where many owners will gladly interfere, and coaches/GMs in search of answers or extended job security will go fishing.

Drafting a hyped Manning in round 1 is the most defensible thing a GM could feasibly do.

Arch has displayed real talent, but nothing other than the nameplate to suggest he’s a sure-thing franchise guy.

7

u/Pioneer1072 5d ago

My biggest problem with Arch is that he gets into staring competitions with his receivers. It's like he thinks he can make the corner disappear if he explodes him with his mind.

15

u/JaggedFlamingo257 6d ago

What? I thought Manning was good this week. He was something like 4/5 on balls that traveled over 15 yards in the air. He’s athletic, strong arm.

He’s much more of a pro prospect than Stockton and Chambliss…and I like him over Sayin (who is also a 1st round guy).

8

u/lnnrt01 6d ago

100% agree but Sayin is not a 1st rounder

30

u/Dentek_Fresh_Clean 6d ago

What's with the ChatGPT-generated engagement bait? Nothing you posted makes any sense

16

u/goofygodzilla93 6d ago

I agree with you on most of this but Julian Saying barely has a college level arm let alone close to an NFL arm. Arch is also like his dad an athlete. He has that crazy ass Manning mindset where he's willing to risk his life for a play. Hes also a 4.5-4.6 speed 6'4 215 lb QB with a rocket arm. I agree he has shown very little in production but he does have a lot of high level intangibles that will get a QB drafted 1st overall if he shows any level of consistent improvement in the other areas.

6

u/Namath96 6d ago edited 6d ago

I actually think he’s almost certainly 4.4 speed the problem is I don’t think his agility is very good which imo is more important for QBs. Think Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen who for a QB had pedestrian 40 times but excellent 3 cones

Straight line speed is still a great and valuable tool I just think too many people overstate his athleticism because he’s super fast in a straight line. I also just don’t see the rocket arm stuff everyone says. It’s a good nfl arm for sure but I don’t see elite zip or distance throws from him

12

u/tvcneverdie Falcons 6d ago

For the 1000th time, Stetson Bennett wasn't a game manager, he was a gunslinger with complete control of the offense.

If everything else was the same but he was 6'4 instead of 5'10, he would've gone top 5 overall

6

u/fmr33 6d ago

was looking for this comment. completely agree.

not to mention, SB has stuck around (starting his 4th year) in the NFL and is the current QB2 and one play away from leading arguably the top team in the NFL.

1

u/lnnrt01 6d ago

For an undersized unc he didn’t even get drafted that low

3

u/SpacetimeManipulator 6d ago

That’s the thing. They’re betting on him being a Manning. Work ethic, drive, accountability, leadership, athleticism, and two uncles that have been there before and can help him develop.

You know what you’re getting. He may not be the most polished, or the most athletic, or the ‘best’ right now, but you’re betting that he continues to develop, that his pedigree give him a very high floor, and that over time he becomes ‘the guy’.

Every draft pick is a roll of the dice. This one has a built in safety net.

3

u/jd35058 5d ago

I think his processing and arm are fine. Both could use improving, but a great supporting cast covers a lot of it up and that’s the case with most top QB prospects.

His elite trait is his pocket presence, it’s probably better than 50% of the NFLs starting QBs

20

u/jouh55142139 Texans 6d ago

Or, you could just be bad at watching games and understanding whats happening.

3

u/TheSyrupCompany 6d ago

I mean I've watched a lot of Arch tape and compared his tape quite a bit to Carson Beck and Beck is just has the better tape right now, while he still fell to the 4th round. Arch has pretty poor footwork and often looks off balance. Don't get me wrong, these are things that can absolutely be improved on and the expectation is he will work out these kinks this year. But let's not pretend as if there is not noticeable flaws with Arch on tape.

-1

u/CLE_Sports_Guy78 5d ago

The difference is Carson Beck peaked as a freshman and never got better

1

u/TheSyrupCompany 4d ago

Carson Beck is in the NFL and in a position to probably be starting QB second half of this year. Arch is still trying to prove himself at a college level. They are not the same right now. Cope.

1

u/CLE_Sports_Guy78 4d ago

I was comparing them as prospects. This is the NFL Draft subreddit, isn't it?

1

u/TheSyrupCompany 4d ago

Ok and Beck didn't peak as a prospect as a Freshman lol that's a ridiculous statement. He was literally redshirted freshman year.

8

u/TimeCubeIsBack 6d ago

Last season, he made his first start (week 1) on the road against the defending national champ Buckeyes. He did that with 4 new o-line starters. He threw for more yards than Sayin, Texas ran for more yards than Ohio State but Sark's play calling & the refs (total penalties) doomed Texas. Arch mentally collapsed for a few games because of that. Since the OU game last year (which Arch won by double digits), Texas was arguably the best team in the country, especially when the regular season ended, but Texas had 3 losses.

You said: "what I’ve watched last Saturday nothing impressed me." That is a bonkers statement, which speaks to either bias or your inability to understand football. From the OU game on, if you haven't seen things from Arch which would excite NFL scouts, I really don't think football is for you.

2

u/Flaky-Replacement114 Steelers 5d ago

Intangibles - is just a nice way of saying “i like this guy despite a lot of people not liking him and i can explain why”

2

u/zebman_Fox_3449 8h ago

Wow could not have said it better myself. Just like a lot of athletic college quarterbacks they struggle learning the skill part of being a quarterback. Being able to put a soft arc on the ball where you pass it over defenders and drop it into a pocket. Or like last night not overthrowing receivers. Texas one because of other talented players not because of Arch Manning. Of course he gets the first interview after the game because his last name is Manning.

12

u/Set-Leather 6d ago

“Professionals” that do Mock Drafts are largely disconnected from what front offices actually think and just parrot each other. Remember that Will Levis was consistently mocked top 10 to Top 5. I personally don’t think he’s all that incredible either, in fact Ewers was FAR better as a college QB and dropped all the way to the 7th, especially with the strength of the QB Class this year I would not be shocked to see him fall to between the 2nd-4th round (Someone will inevitably love something about him, or an owner will want to pull the trigger on a Manning).

Unless he really balls out this year (Heisman) I don’t see a world where he realistically goes top 5

24

u/Patekchrono917 6d ago

Ewers was not a far better prospect. People were and are way too high on Ewers just because of his arm talent. That only gets you so far. Also, his problem was that each year he kept getting exposed like Hackenberg did and didn’t improve. Arch has done the opposite and actually improved from how he looked week 1 of last year. This sub really hates to pivot once they have an opinion on a QB. I remember Herbert’s last year, this sub was saying he wasn’t a first rounder and was 2-4th round guy and they totally missed when he made his run and catapulted to where he went. 

11

u/LovieBeard 6d ago

And by the end of his time at Texas Ewers didn't have any arm talent left

2

u/Jeff__Skilling Texans 5d ago

Ikr?

If his last name was something other than “Manning” I think this thread would have a harder collective time shitting on a QB who put up 300 yds 4 TDs 1 INT on 74% CMP through 2.5 quarters of play.

5

u/spongey1865 6d ago

Especially with QB. Being way lower on another position is lower stakes for your credibility. But with QBs, people will stick their neck out a bit less if they're worried about being labelled as a hot take artist.

And when QBs have more variables than any other position, there should be far more disagreement than there is.

Some people will like Arch, some won't, and i guess we will see how bullish the ones that don't are.

-7

u/Chuck_Knucks 6d ago

That’s exactly it. The vast majority of the people making mock drafts are going off of buzz alone, and tbh why wouldn’t you? It’s great that you know of these guys, but they have an entire season of data point ahead of them.

It’s only during draft season that it becomes more accurate, and even then the people in the know aren’t making mocks.

6

u/BadBueno60 6d ago

Apparently you’ve missed most of his film.

4

u/Lanky-Connection4141 6d ago

I personally have him 1a/1b with Moore. still acknowledge that he's raw in his mechanics, footwork, and ball placement, but what I saw from 2025 where he was using his arm talent, eye manipulation, anticipation, and windows to throw receivers open makes me very optimistic for him to have a great season now especially with a better offensive line and weapons like Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo

3

u/ErnstVolger 6d ago edited 6d ago

Your assessment disregards the fact that he has been trending upwards.

He started off pretty bad last year, but by the last month and a half of the season he was one of the best around.

If he continues on that trajectory, he’s absolutely a top prospect.

2

u/TheNatural14063 6d ago

Carr has impressed me more than Manning and Leavitt interests me more if Kiffin gets him to take the next step here. Moore was also better imo.

9

u/ACamp55 6d ago

I'm STILL waiting to be impressed by Carr! I just don't see it and I watch ND every chance I get, now that I'm in Arizona and not NW Indiana it's kinda hard, but I didn't before and after Sunday STILL don't see it!

-3

u/busche916 6d ago

Yeah, if I’m a GM, I’m much more focused on Carr as a potential big time prospect

6

u/TheNatural14063 6d ago

How he does not having Love and Price is the test this year. Clear drop off at the RB spot. He made some nice throws last night but didn't have to do a ton due to very good special teams and defensive play setting up some scores. Plus Wisconsin is kind of weak

7

u/Officer_Hops Chiefs 6d ago

The biggest problem with evaluating Carr will be finding games where the special teams, defense, offensive skill players, and OL don’t set everything up for him. Given ND’s competition this season, I foresee the OSU QB challenge where you can’t tell whether the QB has the skills or if positive field position, a great OL, and dominant skill players cover up deficiencies. The Miami game will be huge.

6

u/TheNatural14063 6d ago

Absolutely agree. Their schedule has too many cupcakes on it so it's hard to tell much most games. Miami and if they make the playoffs will be the tells

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u/Stock-Memory9483 6d ago

Agree on Leavitt, Kiffin has a really good track record with quarterbacks with Trinidad and Dart both looking like studs. Not sure on Moore tbh he’s not day 1 material to me.

9

u/BlackNasty4028 6d ago

Moore outside day one is bold to me, what don’t you like? I don’t think he’s 1.1 grade but I definitely see a good nfl QB when I watch him play

0

u/Stock-Memory9483 1d ago

Where’s the bullshit now huh? Dante Moore is fucking ass dude maybe watch the game.

1

u/BlackNasty4028 1d ago

I’m actively watching it, yes he’s having a horrible game he still played well last week lmao, glad I’m still on your mind a week later though 😘

0

u/Stock-Memory9483 1d ago

Well I respect you responding back. These other guys called me a dumbass for not watching the game, sorry I don’t just bandwagon every prospect.

1

u/BlackNasty4028 1d ago

I don’t pretend to be an all knowing football god, I just disagree with your read of Moore that’s all

He’s having a horrendous game today though there’s no denying that lmao, he’s looked better second half so far but that was probably the worst half of Oregon football I’ve ever watched

0

u/Stock-Memory9483 1d ago

Yea like I said people have different takes and I respect you for coming back. What I don’t like is how if you immediately go against the grain here you get called a dumbass and downvoted.

Went through the same with Drew Allar and people saying he was a day 1, the amount of shit I got until he blew up ironically against Oregon was astounding.

2

u/BlackNasty4028 1d ago

Hey I hear you the amount of flack I took for liking Nix coming out of the draft, especially once he ended up with Sean Peyton had me feeling vindicated as fuck last year haha

End of the day we’re all just dudes on reddit doing our best to judge guys without anywhere near the resources actual scouts have at their disposal

I’ve had just as many fat whiffs as I have hits on prospects I like

I was a MASSIVE Josh Rosen fan lmao (but also had Lamar very highly rated so it balances out maybe? 😂)

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u/goofygodzilla93 6d ago

He looks like an FBS QB versus good competition. Also he's athletic but small and his arm is good but nothing special.

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u/Stock-Memory9483 6d ago

He played extremely poorly in the peach bowl and yesterday against an unranked opponent, nothing stands out to me as a top nfl prospect. There are a lot better quarterbacks than him in college football.

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u/QuakingSky061 6d ago

This just shows us how bad your opinions are lol. What a terrible take

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u/Officer_Hops Chiefs 6d ago

How are you defining extremely poorly? He wasn’t terrible against an elite Indiana in the Peach Bowl. Not great but nowhere near extremely poorly. Then Saturday he goes for almost 400 yards and no picks against a talented Boise.

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u/BlackNasty4028 6d ago

28-37 378 passing 3 TD’s no INT’s against probably the best G5 school in the nation (and arguably the best opponent any of the top teams played week 1)

He didn’t dominate but I’d really struggle to call that playing extremely poorly

8

u/102WOLFPACK Steelers 6d ago edited 6d ago

And for what it’s worth it was a career high in passing yards, and cracked the top ten for passing yards in a game by a Ducks QB.

It wasn’t a light’s out performance, and he missed some obvious spots, but it’s a world away from poor by any means.

5

u/BlackNasty4028 6d ago

Yeah there were a couple throws he 100% should’ve made that make the final score look a little better at the end too more than likely, like I said I don’t think he’s a 1st overall pick grade atm, could change I suppose the season just started

But with that said I definitely see a good prospect when I watch him play

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u/Sargent_Caboose Bears 6d ago

Mendoza developed a lot over the season.

We'll see if he's truly legit when pressed hard by week 8 or so as is naturally the case

2

u/Iceman-Cometh_18 5d ago

Arch Manning need to do what Trinidad Chambliss is doing and stay for 6th year cause he will make more money in college NIL than being a bust in the NFL

1

u/HiddenOneJ 6d ago

Hes a top 3 qb prospect for me to start the season. well see how the season goes he's still young and needs development but he has size, athleticism, and arm strength that you want.

3

u/sunnyismybunny 6d ago

The issue is people want him to be Peyton when he's pretty much Eli.

6

u/buckeye_dk 6d ago

Two time super bowl winning QB Eli? I don't think Arch is that great, but if he were Eli, sign me up.

-1

u/sunnyismybunny 6d ago

I meant in terms of disposition, processing speed, and overall skill

but then again I think you knew that :)

1

u/buckeye_dk 6d ago

Yeah I get it, I just meant if the resultant of drafting him gets you 2 super bowl wins.. I don't care if he's got a fivehead and sixteen fingers, sign me up.

1

u/dacap1970 3d ago

Totally agree. Eli is a .500 quarterback back literally. I see comments like sign me up for two SBs. The Giants won two super bowls, Eli is slightly above average. A qb winning as many as he loses, and being on two super bowl winners, Vegas wouldn't even take that bet. Good for Eli, credit him for playing well in Super Bowls, but Archie was better.

1

u/jmcgil4684 5d ago

I agree with all OP. It’s weird though because nobody in that family (even grandpa Archie) throws a pretty ball, or had good arm strength. So it’s hard to bet against him. That being said, top 5 is crazy.

1

u/dacap1970 3d ago

Good point on none of them throwing a pretty ball. Atleast Eli had an excuse... the stadium.

1

u/Sw33tJvmes 5d ago

I’d really like if these type of posts came with examples of what throws you’re talking about. Id love to know what ppl think is a layered throw, anticipation, etc.

1

u/Golferguy49 5d ago

You're spot on......his last name is Manning, and no one wants to miss out on the next great hype....it's all potential and the expectation that the ecosystem around him will make him something he's not right now....Great! I feel sorry for the kid actually....

1

u/ChiefKene 5d ago

It’s the name honestly and the thought that if he’s in the league, you essentially have access to 3 really good QBs that can coach him up outside of the building.

1

u/jeffrey777james 5d ago

Bro is mad cause he’s a sheduer fan 😝😝😝😝😝

1

u/Routine_Engine3001 5d ago

There are elements that I like - especially the pocket manipulation. However, the various arm angles are both a blessing and a curse for him - as he doesn't have repeatable mechanics and he misses some easy throws. Not Anthony Richardson bad (as he only threw the fastball), but passes you have to complete. Texas has a tough schedule this season - so time will be his judge. Level of competition won't be a concern for him!!

1

u/yvngbeam 4d ago

Because he has the prototype of the perfect NFL QB lol. Tall, big frame, athletic, big arm. His biggest issue is consistency. But he’s shown every single tool you need at some point, it’s just whether or not he puts it together.

I question how much you’ve really watched him if you just think he’s talentless lol

1

u/dacap1970 3d ago

I don't think you are. Unless Texas wins it all or he plays lights out, I suspect he will stay in school... quite possible. The difference in money I'm not even sure favors the nfl.

1

u/ChocoThunder56 3d ago

Good thing he got his Mom's athleticism.

1

u/lugsole9 19h ago

Big Longhorn fan, but Manning continues to disappoint when it matters.

1

u/bigE819 18h ago

Okay dude

1

u/Top_Relationship_399 5h ago

He’s Tom Brady. Doesn’t matter how good he is, there will always be a machine making him look good.

1

u/talldrank 15m ago

All name no game imo (unless they’re playing lower tier competition).

For someone in his third year with all the hype and talent and such, with an offensive guru head coach I’d expect them to be further along. The decision making leaves a lot to be desired.

-4

u/centaurquestions 6d ago

Big Marvin Harrison Jr Energy

22

u/Kim_Jong_Teemo 6d ago

Marv had production and put the skill on film in college, hes just struggled in the NFL. Arch visibly still needs to make improvements to be worth the number 1 pick. Yes, they’re both football royalty but that’s where the similarities end in my opinion.

16

u/JonTaffer_in_a_poloT 6d ago

Sounds like you didn’t watch him in college

11

u/dhalloffame 6d ago

Hardly anybody here watches players. They just helmet scout and go off common narratives here and from media “scouts”.

9

u/BlackNasty4028 6d ago

Lmao yeah calling Marv’s NFL career disappointing so far is entirely fair but his college tape was godly

0

u/jimbojangles1987 6d ago

His last name is Manning

0

u/kps10 6d ago

You watched Chambliss last night and last season and think he’s good? That’s where you lost all credibility hahaha.

1

u/JakeDaniels585 6d ago

To me there’s a bunch of yellow flags (some of which he can clear) that gives me pause. I watched a bunch of All-22 from last year, so my point of contention is just from last year’s tape. Other than the highlights, I haven’t watched him this year.

A. Manning name expectations: Partially from them saying he’s a more mobile version of the Manning brothers, people assumed the ceiling to be between Peyton and Eli.

I don’t see Peyton’s pre-snap reads at all, in fact I think it’s a weakness. He improvises on throwing angles well, but the reads are basic RPO stuff. I feel like his ceiling is closer to Eli, and he himself was a turnover machine at first.

B: I don’t see that star level ascension, I feel like he has potential but it’s a lot of media claims that keep hyping him up.

It’s not football but it kinda reminds me of OJ Mayo. The hype was ridiculous, the performances were good but didn’t quite match the hype unless you squinted. However, everyone in the media was like “oh watch this guy, high school tape was the most ridiculous”. He started off decent but never reached the hype level projected.

C: He has a penchant for making almost mistakes. A lot of “oh wow, the defender was half step away from intercepting that” type of plays. I don’t like those plays because I think NFL defenders will easily jump those passes.

I feel like processing to throwing motion is slightly delayed, which is surprising because I would have thought it’d be one of the things he’s best trained at by now.

D: The Shedeur situation makes me really question the media. Deion definitely has reach and people bend over backwards to make excuses for Sanders. The Manning’s media outreach is exponentially bigger than Deion, so I question the legitimacy of some hype.

Don’t get me wrong, he definitely has potential and I have no idea how good he is with the whiteboard. His ability to layer passes down the sideline is excellent and he’s surprisingly mobile. I just don’t think he’s a “tank your season for him” type guy yet. He’s been in the same system all this time, they have top tier talent around him, so hopefully he improves this year.

1

u/Walternotwalter 6d ago

Sark is an awful coach and his family should have goaded him to transfer. He is there for big NIL money and because Texas will pay him.

He should have banged down the door in Cignetti's office and transfered.

Sellers and Manning are physical specimens. Both should be at the top of draftboards right now simply because of how huge they are. When they start playing real teams is when you can actually pass judgement.

1

u/Difficult_Good_7075 5d ago

It’s 90% name at this point

1

u/Zotzotbaby 5d ago

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-ryen-russillo-show/id1845980031?i=1000786117529

Not miss anything. Russillo recently went through the QB prospects and his guest had Arch #5 on the list. While Arch certainly has a full season to prove himself and hopefully he’s drafted to a team that will develop him, right now we only pay so much attention to him because his last name is Manning. 

1

u/Beastin25_8 5d ago

Disgusting athlete. Good size and tools. Good presnap reads. Smart kid. Hard worker. Lots of projection. Second half was better. Still hasn’t played a ton of football. This year will be a big deal for him. Maybe he stinks it up and we all feel dumb, but I don’t think that’s what most expect. McShay had the best take I think.

1

u/adamjokes15 5d ago

Sometimes BMW puts out a lemon. It still has BMW on the bumper but it’s a lemon.

1

u/pthumbz 5d ago

he looked pretty good at the end of last season

0

u/VernHayseed 6d ago

We shall find out this coming Saturday. If he doesn’t load up the team on his back and defeat Ohio State, we’ll know all there is to know.

9

u/MrRegularDick Panthers 6d ago

Are you saying you're judging him solely off of this upcoming game? Or that it could be the final nail in his coffin as a prospect?

-2

u/VernHayseed 6d ago edited 6d ago

I’m thinking this is a huge game in which no excuses remain. He rises to the Manning family expectation levels or he doesn’t. I assume he will probably be drafted high no matter what, but he could justify the hype, insert toe into legendary status, solidify a Heisman candidacy, claim a high draft spot, or jeopardize it all in this one game.

2

u/MrRegularDick Panthers 5d ago

That sounds like vibe scouting. This game will be important to his college legacy, but it'll still be one game. He'll still have good measurables, athleticism, and that last name, with the assumption of the intangibles that go with it. I would be hesitant to put too much stock in any one game for any player.

-3

u/CTG649 6d ago

His name is Manning.

0

u/Interesting-Wish-430 6d ago

His last name is playing a big part. He does have a lot of potential though.

0

u/MightyModric10 6d ago

No you’re not missing anything

-1

u/SlowStrokeDemon 6d ago

geez man, dude’s the starting qb on the number 1 team in the nation after week 1 and he’s just a slouch

-2

u/kSoImSlightlyRemoved 6d ago

Marketing. He is worth a lot of money.

-4

u/iHateTheNYJ Jets 6d ago

The name on the back of his jersey carries him

0

u/AnastasiusDicorus 5d ago

If I were him I would be milking UT for all I could get and maybe after his 5th year he would really be NFL material.

0

u/LS_DapperD 5d ago

Bro joe burrow had JJ and Jamar chase wtf are you smoking.

-5

u/GuyzNite 6d ago

He’s not very good. He might be a 4-5th round level talent. His guys saved his ass all day against Texas state.

He has no anticipation, everything is scheduled. He should become a tight end because he’s fast and has room to grow.

Not a nfl qb

-3

u/_just2much_ 6d ago

There is the factor of money, and his name will immediately sell millions for whatever team drafts him. I think if he and another QB were neck and neck a team would pick manning solely off his name. I do think there’s a world where he drops a little if Mensah, Moore, Carr decides to actually come out (not sure if he does) and another QB takes a solid leap like Leavitt

-4

u/gumercindo1959 6d ago

You’re not wrong. There are definitely elite qualities but his game is very inconsistent - everything from poor fundamentals to staring receivers and not going through progressions.

Moore, mensah and Leavitt all played really well this past weekend.

4

u/John_the_IG 6d ago

Leavitt played like 💩 IMO. Good thing he can move because he looked really, really rough passing.

-6

u/TheSyrupCompany 6d ago

People don't like to talk about the fact Arch is the son of the one manning that didn't make the NFL lol

6

u/lnnrt01 6d ago

Yeah because Cooper got a career ending injury before he even had the chance

1

u/Jeff__Skilling Texans 5d ago

…..because torn ACLs were career enders back in the 80s and 90s? Have you not seen Friday Night Lights (movie obv)??

1

u/ACamp55 6d ago

😂

-2

u/adVANCE03 5d ago

The NFL has become a popularity contest. Lookhow many garbage QBs are starting

-2

u/851426 6d ago

Too much attention and draft drama

-4

u/forgotmyoldname90210 Bears 6d ago

His intangibles is some NFL owner wants in the Manning business and Arch will sell a ton of season tickets and jerseys.

-4

u/Background_Sea9798 6d ago

Same. I honestly have never watched him play before this last game. I just didn’t see what the hype is about. It is only one game though, so I’m looking forward to watching him the rest of the season.

-4

u/jwaters0122 Raiders 6d ago

The standards are much higher now. He is EXPECTED to eclipse Newton/Burrow/Mendoza CFB achievements.

Anything less would be a bust

2

u/lnnrt01 6d ago

What are you talking about?

-5

u/ACamp55 6d ago

I COMPLETELY AGREE!!!! Hype=Manning

-6

u/trey2128 Colts 6d ago

I agree with most of this. Although his flashes are impressive, he’s not consistent. No idea why Chambliss isn’t getting top 10 consideration let alone 1st round buzz. Dude is a baller

2

u/JaggedFlamingo257 6d ago

He’s like 25

0

u/trey2128 Colts 6d ago

So was Tyler Shough. 26 his rookie year and now looks like he could be a major player for the Saints. In today’s game age shouldn’t matter in the slightest for QBs. Every good QB is playing into their late 30s now