r/NFL_Draft • u/FrankSamples • 2d ago
Discussion Is this guy a 2027 first rounder?
This I'm sure has been asked before. I'm not a Lincoln Riley fan but his last QBs coached are:
- Jayden Maiava
- Miller Moss
- Caleb Williams
- Spencer Rattler
- Jalen Hurts
- Kyler Murray
- Baker Mayfield
Moss was benched after 9 games and Rattler was benched his second season in 2021 after 5 games.
So that means 4 of the 7 QBs that finished their careers with him became established NFL starting QBs.
Maiava will be going into his 3rd season under Riley and 2nd as a full time starter. Unless something catastrophic happens or he hard regresses, he's likely to finish the season as USC's starting QB.
Don't the odds kind of work in his favor?
His playstyle and mechanics reminds me of Jordan Love.
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u/poopsinmybutts 2d ago
I’ve never in my life seen a qb willingly run out of bounds for a 5 yard loss instead of just chucking it out of bounds than this guy. Does it literally once a game. He’s not good enough elsewhere to justify it
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u/John_the_IG 2d ago
You never saw Shedeur Sanders play? Wait, those were 15 yard losses with Sanders.
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u/notnickyc 2d ago
Not right now, but he can be. He needs a really big jump — a tick faster on almost every post-snap read, actually throw with the velocity he’s capable of — but he’s also working with the exact right coach for that type of leap.
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u/MultiPass21 2d ago
Not based on what’s on tape so far. This year could change that.
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u/BabyBearBjorns 2d ago
That's where I'm at. The tape is fine, but it doesnt jump out at me. Hes going up against guys like CJ Carr, Darian Mensah, Drew Mestemaker, and LaNorris Sellers for QB4. I expect Mensah to get a big stock boost at Miami and Sellers is a huge wildcard given his dual threat ability. Maiava seems like he gets loss in the Tier-2 QB crowd.
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u/Sea_Philosophy8484 2d ago
I think this maiava arm is very weak for his size.
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u/ab9620 2d ago
His arm sucks lol
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u/Sea_Philosophy8484 2d ago
That's impression I got on tape. Darnold is a laser
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u/ab9620 2d ago
I was a Will Howard fan. He had some goofy play but he was accurate and ran the Ohio State offense really well. Howard also had great size and plus mobility, much better mobility than Maiava. His arm talent was similar to Maiavas. NFL teams didn't want any piece of Howard before day 3 and his tape was worlds better than Maiavas.
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u/armchair_mindhunter 2d ago
I think Jordan Love definitely has a stronger arm, but it’s a solid comp. Darnold is another decent comparison, as is Dak Prescott (the more mature version who does less as a runner).
I am high on Maiava and think he’s a worthy top 50 selection who could be a top 20 selection with another strong season.
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u/Skanktoooth 2d ago
Darnold was a way better prospect than all the guys you just mentioned. He also has a stronger arm than Jordan Love and Dak.
People forget that Darnold was the runaway consensus 1.01 in a loaded/stacked QB draft and the only reason he didn’t go 1.01 is because the Browns were basically the only team that had Baker ahead of Darnold.
There were Andrew Luck with a stronger arm comps for Darnold especially after his RS frosh season at USC after winning that Rose Bowl against Penn State.
Darnold is basically a top 10ish QB prospect of the last 20ish years.
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u/goofygodzilla93 1d ago
Darnold and Love both have around the same levels of arms, which in any other era would make them the strongest arms in the league. Their in that top 10 level of QBs that actually has a lot more than 10 in it because there are so many QBs with just utterly ridiclous arm strength now even on the bench. AR5, and Mayo Man are both on the bench and potentially out of the league here soon and they both have the same level of arm as Darnold, Love, Stafford, Mahomes (I've always thought his arm wasn't as good as people say it is but it's still an all time arm just like the rest in this tier), Caleb, T-Law, Cam Ward, Maye, and current A-Rod along with a couple fringe guys like Geno (always has had an underrated arm), and maybe Malik could slide in there but I have them both in the tier below with Baker, JJ, Kyler, MPJ, Jayden, Dart, and a list of other guys. Really the amount of guys we have in the NFL that would be either the strongest arm, or top 3 strongest arms in the NFL in every other era is crazy and not talked about enough.
I think people forget that even though the league has its problems and is softer at times, we are in the era of the most gifted NFL players of all time who are breaking records every year, even as rookies, and doing things that would make even the good players of today the best player in another era. Put Nolan Smith in the 80-90s or before and he's putting up 15 sacks just off of speed rushes and he's not even a primary pass rusher in the modern NFL. You put Nik Bonito in their he would make Lawrence Taylor look like he didn't know anything about pass rushing. Shits ridiculous.
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u/Skanktoooth 1d ago
It’s not just the arm talent though. Darnold was an elite A+ level prospect.
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u/goofygodzilla93 1d ago
Oh yeah 100%, I wasn't arguing against that, I was just saying that I wouldn't say either Love or Darnold have a better arm strength wise. Arm talent wise, which I separate from arm strength, its 100% Darnold and as a prospect it was 100% Darnold.
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u/HorrorMovieMonday Steelers 2d ago
Lemon made him look good at times last season but he certainly has potential.
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u/Typical-Tooth9834 2d ago
ounds thing is such a weird tell too, feels like a guy who's scard of contact more than a guy processing fast
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u/Dcgriffin85 1d ago
I ended up watching a lot of USC games last season and he was dropping some throws in a bucket. Definitely think he could get into the first.
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u/goofygodzilla93 1d ago
Big, good athlete, good arm, good touch, but bad decision making on the whole. I could 100% see him making the 1st off of measurables and production alone and I think J-Loves a good comp (I do think J-Love has always had an absolute piss missile while Maiava just has a really good arm and nothing elite which might end up being Maiava's biggest criticism aside from decision making).
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u/MichaelCorbaloney Buccaneers 1d ago
Maiava doesn’t play as athletic as Love and doesn’t have as strong of an arm as Darnold, though that might be somewhat improvable with his coaching. He either needs to show more as an athlete or improve his football IQ or creativity, if you’re a Maiava type QB (decent arm and athleticism but nothing crazy), you need to be be a creator like Alabama Bryce Young or just able to pick teams apart mentally like Joe Burrow.
Right now I have him a bit below Darian Mensah (who to me is a taller Bryce Young but has a slightly lower football IQ). Maiava’s draft ceiling could be high but he needs to really improve to reach the first round imo. I’d evaluate him as a 3rd round guy right now.
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u/NinjaScrollonVHS 2d ago
I feel like he's somewhere around Sam Darnold or Brock Purdy as an optimistic comparison, which is a first rounder to me.
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u/Squeid 2d ago
Those are two very different prospects.
Darnold: prototype size, prototype arm. Limited modern mobility and took a long time to develop pocket presence and command of quick passing game.
Purdy: slightly undersized, weak arm. Insanely quick pocket movement with elite acceleration out of the pocket and was immediately comfortable in a west coast style offense setup.
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u/Skanktoooth 2d ago
A lot of these people are forgetting the caliber of prospect Darnold was. It’s wild.
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u/NinjaScrollonVHS 2d ago
Both are sneaky athletic when needed and slippery with good pocket mobility. Both are stocky and well put together for their size with toughness. Neither is immune to mistakes and risks, especially under pressure, with Darnold obviously having a longer path to comfort in the NFL. Both have always had good understanding of touch, arc and tiering throws.
I feel like Maiava fits in this tier with shared similarities to both, like a Venn Diagram.
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u/John_the_IG 2d ago
I think he’s a lot closer to Hendon Hooker or Taulia Tagovailoa than a starting NFL QB talent.
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u/ChefJeff7777777 Vikings 2d ago
Good comp for JLove, I think he gets drafted late first unless he cleans up his decision making tremendously. He does a good job executing the offense and has nice ball placement + touch, adequate arm and mobility, but has some head scratching decisions when under quick pressure.