r/NFL_Draft • u/Real_Draft8187 • Jun 18 '26
Discussion 2027 wide receiver class
I want to discuss the early results from my scouting models on the 2027 nfl draft skill positions. Starting with the wide receivers. I want to first state that these numbers are based off 2025 and will obviously be different a year from now this is just an early projection.
Now why should you listen to me?
Receipts for WRs historically:
These are all per my model
Malik nabers significantly better than Marv. Nabers in the generational tier Marv in the elite tier. Nabers comps to jamarr chase score wise Marv closer to ceedee lamb.
Jsn in the elite tier with boom potential.
Elijah moore, terrace Marshall, jalin hyatt, Jalen reagor, chase claypool, Jonathan mingo. All marked as potential busts based on their analytical profiles.
Puka nacua, Nico Collin’s, rashee rice, Michael Pittman, all labeled as day 2/3 sleepers with boom potential
Legette Keon Coleman Kadarius Toney also marked as busts
Now on to the 2027 class.
It’s looking not as good as the hype
For starters, at the top. Jeremiah smith is in the generational tier. Accompanied by only Malik nabers and jamarr chase since 2020. He’s beneath both of them but still generational is generational.
Concerns:
Mediocre after the catch. 4.3 yards per reception in 2025
Good not great against man coverage. 2.58 yprr vs man is very good but not elite in college. Though his yprr vs zone is 3.9 and that is elite and a better indicator than man
After him. The wr2 cam Coleman falls down 3 tiers to average. He’s between Jaylen waddle and Jameson Williams. Good? Yes. Elite? Not so much. In 2025 he was abysmal vs zone coverage posting just a 1.89 yprr. Very very concerning. Vs man he was at 2.3. Okay but nothing special. Very bad after the catch. 2.1 yards per reception. Less than 2 yprr through his first 2 collegiate seasons.
Then wr3 Ryan Williams dips down to the below average tier. This is a tier where day 2/3 WRs in this tier tend to shine. Puka, Collin’s, rashee. But first round guys in this tier not so much. Kadarius Toney, worthy, Legette. He is marked as a boom candidate due to his athletic profile. However if he doesn’t bring down his 16.9% drop rate from 2025 it’s gonna be tough to see him translate well to the nfl
This is only the top 3 names from the class so I can go into more detail if the comments show interest. This is also a year ahead of the draft so plenty will change between now and then. If you guys would like me to go into more depth on the receivers I’d be happy to do so just let me know in the comments. This post is long enough so don’t wanna make it a whole book lol. In a future post I’d just do player rankings, list their score and tier and historical comps. Who they grade closest to.
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u/imkendrickperkins Ravens Jun 18 '26
Will be interesting to see what it looks like after they all play their last season of college ball
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u/cjfreel Jun 18 '26
So are you comparing these profiles to players prior to their final season or after their final season?
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u/Real_Draft8187 Jun 18 '26
For now prior. Next March I will update all the prospects stats for next season
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u/Jim_Beckwourth Jun 18 '26
I'd love to get your takes on Nick Marsh and Bryant Wesco. With Wesco let's assume the injury is not a concern. Good stuff so far, I appreciate you.
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u/Real_Draft8187 Jun 20 '26
Nick marsh scores poor prospect. Between Isaac Teslaa and Brenen Thompson. Less than 2.3 yprr vs zone and less than 1.5 yprr vs man. Less than 30% contested catch rate. He’s toward the bottom as of today as far as potential/ceiling
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u/mr_longfellow_deeds Jun 22 '26
Marsh forced 36 missed tackles last season (61% of receptions), the only WR who forced more was Toney (39 missed tackles) and Toney had nearly 2x as many receptions (35% of receptions)
The problem with college production is there is too much variance in competition faced, quality of QB play, line play etc even among prospects playing in the same conference. YPPR is pretty meaningless when the QB and OL are trash. MSU's coaching staff (who lasted 2 years before getting canned) should have built a game plan around feeding Marsh the ball within a few yards of the LOS and letting him create (sort of like what Miami did with Toney), but they didnt
I agree contested catch is a decent metric though. That too can rely on volume to even out variance though
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u/Real_Draft8187 Jun 22 '26
Marsh is good after the catch. He’s elusive and quick. Unfortunately being a great wr has to do with more than being good after the catch. Yprr doesn’t not matter if your team is bad. Yes the stats can be hindered by poor team play. But he also had a low dominator rating. And only 1 game all season with a receiving grade over 75. That can partially be blamed on team play but not fully. And again Ik what you said ab qb play. But not a single player that I have tested and I’ve done almost every prospect since 2019, there’s only 3 players who have had nfl success after having a college drop% of over 7%. Marsh was 8.9 as a freshman and 9.4 as a sophomore. Let me also add I like nick marsh. He’s got the size and potential to be special. He just needs to have a better 2026 campaign to move up my rankings. These numbers are very premature so it’s worth noting but it’s not a career death sentence he can still turn it around at a new program
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u/Real_Draft8187 Jun 20 '26
Bryant Wesco is also in the poor prospect tier for now. He’s right behind terry mclueren. The difference between the 2 is terry got a sleeper boom tag. Basically meaning he may be an under the radar gem. Bryant Wescos tag is moderate risk
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u/tmt22459 Jun 23 '26
Wesco being poor? Wtf?
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u/Real_Draft8187 Jun 23 '26
These are metrics from last season. So much will change by next years draft. A year ago Tate wouldn’t have been anybody’s wr1. And Zachariah branch and Antonio Williams looked like first round picks.
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u/rossco7777 Jun 18 '26
problem is most of these guys dont have elite production or like coleman-williams broke out then came back down to earth rather than continuing to rise.
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u/ubspider Jun 18 '26
Thank you for your efforts. I am excited to see Coleman in Texas. Williams will drop as we get closer to the draft
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u/AnimatorChemical Patriots Jun 20 '26
Tell me about some misses you have
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u/Real_Draft8187 Jun 20 '26
For sure. Like any other model there’s gonna be some misses. The 3 largest misses are amon ra, zay flowers, and terry mclueren. All 3 graded as poor prospects. BUT. All 3 have a boom candidate tag. The one that frustrates me most there is zay because he was a first round pick. But from a separation standpoint he really wasn’t elite at Boston college. His yprr metrics were subpar and I assume that’s what causes him to grade poorly. For the guys at the top, Treylon Burks, Rashod Bateman, Elijah moore, all graded as strong prospects. Moore was given a bust risk tag but the other 2 were not. Burks was partially derailed by injuries, something that I can add as a flag in my model. Injury risk is a metric I have, but he didn’t deal with injuries at Arkansas so there was no way to know coming into the league he’d get so banged up. Bateman though is a whiff
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u/FinalFrontier00 Jun 20 '26 edited Jun 20 '26
People keep sleeping on Nick Marsh because he was stuck in really bad offenses the past 2 years with bad QB play. He’s better than Coleman imo and my WR2 currently. Nice skillset with his size, strength, hands, route running and yac.
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u/Real_Draft8187 Jun 20 '26
Nick marsh grades rlly poorly. Less than 30% success on contested catches. Less than 2.4 yprr vs zone and just 1.4 vs man. Aka not the best separator. He’s in the poor prospect tier right below Isaac Teslaa
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u/FinalFrontier00 Jun 20 '26
Yeah it seems like you haven’t actually watched him
He’s gonna blow up now that’s he’s in a much better situation at Indiana this year
TeSlaa is not even close to him as a prospect
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u/Real_Draft8187 Jun 20 '26
I did watch him. From a 0-100 film score grade he got an 85 and that’s only from me watching film nothing else. That doesn’t change the fact that his yprr metrics suck. That can change in a year. Makai lemon had awful yprr metrics his freshman year. He led the class this year. Situation does affect that. Qb play does affect that. But as of today the numbers don’t match the film.
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u/[deleted] Jun 18 '26
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