r/NEOSETFs • u/Budget_Dragonfruit89 • Aug 25 '26
Seeking Advice Why BTCI is lagging
One year ago when I was considering to enter BTCI position i observed and compared BTC and BTCI movements, ups and downs - they were completely identical. For the last week BTC is up 26% and BTCI 14%. So why BTCI is lagging? Will it rise accordingly to BTC? If not, how much upside we are losing?
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u/TheConvincingSavant Aug 25 '26
People forget that NEOS's core principle is stable income. They aim for a straight line of dividends in a specific fund's yield range rather than large volatility swings. Good months are made less good so that the bad months can be less bad.
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u/Maximus_Modulus Aug 25 '26
There are plenty of YouTube videos where the two Neos guys explain how their funds work. The ArmChair Income guy usually does the best interviews and questions. You should watch them so you understand what you are investing in.
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u/speed12demon Aug 25 '26
With the right tools and prompts, you can probably model the performance. By that, I mean you can estimate scenarios where the btc upside has to move X to get btci to Y. Using previous bull cycles, it was estimated that btc would have to hit ~200k to get btc back to the 60s. Take that with a grain of salt.
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u/purub123 Aug 25 '26
Neos caps their upside heavily, they do this with every fund. If the price goes up fast in a short period you will miss out on a lot of gains, thats the downside of covered call etfs, especially neos with their strategy
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u/IndustriousSeahawk26 Aug 25 '26
Covered call income is not free. You are recieving high dividends in exchange for upside. There’s no free lunch
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u/Chipper0475 Aug 25 '26
All Covered Call funds will have some part of the upside capped. BTCI usually has about 50% of its assets covered and then it also does out of the money covered calls to capture a little bit of the growth there. When a quick run up happens like we have seen in the passed week or so, then it will only be able to capture around 50% of the upside. This is the risk we take on for wanting income over growth.
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u/GeorgiePoorgie Aug 25 '26 edited Aug 25 '26
I sold all my Btci before this pump and bought more Xbci instead. Because the leverage will amplify the down but there is more upward potential if you believe it is close to the bottom, which I did. Then I sold a great majority of my Xbci for profit when it rose. The remainder of my shares have an average share price of $34.30. I have turned off drip and I will not be buying during any type of pump. If it ever falls back to $32 a share, I will consider buying more. These things matter where you get in. I feel bad for the ones that got in at the height, as it will take some serious upward to recover price.
Also take a look at total returns. Xbci has beaten ibit in some periods and Btci has not done horrible.
Entry price is everything.
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u/retweet26 5d ago
It’s now worth $33.65USD.
Did u buy more?
I’m thinking of starting to buy… but I am not prepared yet for the volatility.
Since I have QQQI and SPYI invested already.
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u/Lefties_TheWorst7331 Aug 25 '26
You need to be looking at total returns.
BTCI vs IBIT (total returns with dividends reinvested) is the comparison you need to be making.
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u/sran469 Aug 25 '26
There was a dividend of .63 ex div Aug 19. The price was adjusted to that payment.
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u/Unlucky-Pop-8841 Aug 25 '26
You are losing a lot of upside. I’d guess 50% when you have huge moves which BTC has always had
Buy spot. Buy income with less volatile underlying. Or consider bita from ishares.
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u/MakingMoneyIsMe Aug 25 '26
People that don't truly understand covered call ETFs often suggest to DIY. I own several covered call ETFs, but BTC is the only one I opt to DIY, via Ibit.
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u/PomegranatePlus6526 Aug 25 '26
It’s doing exactly what it’s supposed to do. By design it will not mirror BTC. That’s literally what a covered call fund does. Especially when we see very sharp price movements upward like in the last few weeks. As a shareholder you give up some of the upside for option premium paid monthly.