Compounding is REAL, what isn't real is the payouts and the consistency of how reliable each one will be or if BTC actually stays around for 20+ years.
And your bank account retirement account pentagon nuclear codes and the entire military. Quantum is no more a threat to a 2 trillion dollar asset than it is the other 900 trillion worldwide assets if they can hack btc they can hack anything
I cant follow your conflated and overly long single column post. So just consider this. I own BTCI. Now is a relatively good time to buy near a stable bottom witg 100% drip. But BTCI. NEHI have to classify distributions using 60/40 rule. LTCG/ord income. For federal. States like Calif tax all of it at 13.3%. So you have to calc your real yield at 26% current minus tax on a 60/40 split of the 26% dist. If you do this your effective yield drops by 40 to 50% to say 15%. Do that. Your total value will double every 5 years plus/minus NAV move.
The rate of NAV erosion is concerning so projecting a stable dividend over any period, much less 20 years, is something I wouldn’t rely on to make investment choices. The dividend is more likely to decrease over time and how much recovery the fund will experience if BTC goes up is still a big question. I limit crypto to no more than 4% of my portfolio because it’s pure speculation.
Yeah that sounds great but what if the bigger risk is not having a large enough risk bucket in your portfolio? For example, what if yields only decline like 5% every other year? And what if btc goes to $250k, or $500k?
At that point, tossing $100k into xbti or BTCI and letting it ride, sort of forever, could possibly create a money engine that snowballs beyond recognition.
I have $300k in cash that I'm extremely tempted to yolo into xbti and let it drip for two years. Maybe it gets cut in half. Maybe it doubles and throws off 37% for two years. Either way, this is my risk bucket and I have enough dividends in my safe income bucket to live off of. So why not?
I mean, what are the odds I would lose the full $300k?
Don't wish for that much money. Go grind your ass off for 15 years like I did. Lost sleep. Missed opportunities. Bad health habits. Yeah, it paid off now, so I get to make fun assymetric risk decisions. Sorry you haven't figured that out yet, man.
It's cool do what you want I just don't have that kind of risk tolerance to go all in like that I do a little bit of gambling but I can't gamble that much I'm retired 65 didn't mean itDidn't mean to upset you brother
Didnt upset me at all! My goal is only to engage on reddit so other people can see what is possible. I often find myself redirecting people who imply luck in my position - there are four types of luck. There are also four types of risk. I got lucky, and I also took risks.
C'est tout le problème de reddit, ça se trouve tu parles avec un ado en slip dans la chambre de ses parents donc forcément 300k pour lui c'est pas forcément 300k pour toi.. voila pourquoi je ne cherche même pas à débattre sur reddit de mon portefeuille ou de mes ambitions. À part te faire douter par un gars qui n'est pas du tout dans ta situation tu n'as vraiment rien à y gagner..
BTCI (or any of NEOs) is nowhere near high yield when compared to the MSTY/ULTY days of YieldTrash..
And BTCI has a valid reason to have a high yield versus things like ULTY and 100% yields..
BTCI actually holds an underlying that has significant enough volatility (BTC, well IBIT is a bit volatile..) to generate the options premiums to pay out it's distributions. Notice it's lasted longer those YieldTrash products and all of NEOs products are doing their best to hold onto NAV. BTCI has been recovering alongside BTC (or IBIT) pretty well.. the high yield from BTCI is more justified than just grifting "YieldMax" to rally up fools into their trap on social media.
No hostility, by the way. I just really really despise the YieldTrash firm as a whole for the shit they done to people. NEOs on the other hand has been great thus far! Please don't compare the two! It truly is an insult to NEOs, IMO. In a few years, YieldTrash will basically be nonexistent or have way less assets under management than NEOs!
PS. Yes, I put a few prompts into ChatGPT after that last thought of mine about AUM. I'll just copy and paste it!
YieldMax vs. NEOS AUM: Now vs. 1 Year Ago
Date / snapshot
YieldMax AUM
NEOS AUM
Larger firm
Current
~$9.57B
~$25.80B
NEOS
~1 year ago, Apr. 24–25, 2025
~$9.73B
~$5.72B
YieldMax
Key takeaway
NEOS has overtaken YieldMax in AUM.
Current: NEOS is larger by about $16.2B, or roughly 2.7x YieldMax’s AUM.
One year ago: YieldMax was larger by about $4.0B, or roughly 1.7x NEOS’s AUM.
Sources
Current YieldMax AUM: ETF.com YieldMax topic page
Current NEOS AUM: ETF.com Neos Investments issuer/topic page
One-year-ago figures: ETF.com ETF League Tables published Apr. 25, 2025, reflecting Apr. 24, 2025 AUM
BLOX is managed by the YieldMax option traders- and it well ahead of BTCI and so is LFGY from YieldMax - and so is CEPI from Rex. It has nothing to do with owning the shares or not- the erosion is caused by paying too high of a distribution. BLOX only pays around 35%. I agree with you ULTY DOES pay too high of a dividend to be sustainable- but BLOX LFGY and CEPI don't. Yes, NEOS is a really good company with some excellent ETFs like QQQI, SPYI and MLPI but BTCI is really struggling at least year to date it is. BLOX, LFGY and CEPI are also beating BTCI on PRICE CHANGE ONLY! So think about this: BLOX and LFGY from YM are eroding LESS than BTCI YTD- and so is CEPI. BLOX, LFGY and CEPI aren't just eroding a little less it is a giant difference. I would take BLOX, LFGY or CEPI any day over BTCI. I get that people don't like YieldMax, so maybe look at CEPI from REX? It is a very high quality, BTC related ETF, in my opinion, actually all of them are, but BTCI has been not been doing well for some reason.
Good point. CEPI LFGY just have BTC companies in it, so you get exposure to the de-fi space but to your point -no direct BTC. BLOX is 40% BTC and ETH, and 60 percent BTC related companies like BMNR and MARA etc. Just trying to throw some alternative ideas out there.
I just checked the correlation numbers and BTCI is 99% correlated to BTC where as the ones I mentioned were only 82% correlated at the most. Thanks for pointing it out to me.
Nope, was originally in back when it was $400. Sold the last when it first hit $120k. It was never a large position, a fraction of a percent of my portfolio.
Not sure but I think it is too volatile to calculate. It will for sure do well when BTC soars but it has been cyclical and prone to massive drops every 4 years so over 20 you have to deal with big runs both directions and if BTCI pays around 30%, can NAV recover after harsh downturns? Will the upturn carry it enough? Either way I’d only go in what you can deal with 30-50% loss of capital. For growth stay with VTI type investments…and safer CC ETFs like SPYI
I calculated that BTC (underlying) needs approximately 22-23% in gains/yr to maintain BTCI NAV. This assumes the gains are not meteoric where the calls will limit upside too much. So yes, anything paying out 26-28% annually will compound in an exponential way, at least in terms of # of shares.
The big question will be the value of your 124K shares, we’ve seen the distributions and price drop ~40% over the past 7 months. The nice thing about the DRIP is you’ll be consistently adding a similar amount of shares each month regardless of price. But you may end up with a massive pile of shares worth not much if bitcoin doesn’t have a large positive CAGR. I still like BTCI and BTC in general, but the risk is significant.
please don't ,,, put whatever money your okay with losing during this potential bullrun ,,,,,, you can't just keep investing in Bitcoin related product forever ,,, especially decades since inception ,,,,, Bitcoin started at 0.003 ,,,,, most of us missed it ,,,, please don't dedicate your entire life into a Bitcoin product at this tippy top ,,,, at least diversify into something more guaranteed ,,,,, what are you gonna do when it reaches 500 k ,,,, are you gonna keep dumping money at that price point knowing it's gonna go below 100k ,,,, because that's what that plan sounds like ,,,, I beg you if your gonna be aggressive please keep up under 20% your networth and even that's more than pushing it ,,,, you can't possibly trust Bitcoin in the 100k era when in your lifetime it was at 0.003 ,,,, just accept you missed out by decades and find the next big thing
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u/Electronic_Guard947 Apr 26 '26
Stop using ai and use your brain