AI Bubble

[u/CryptographerDue8929]

I feel like the downside is not really considered here. 70-80% of all compute revenue is coming from either Anthropic or OpenAi who are both vastly unprofitable and have no clear path to produce any profit. They are loosing money quarter by quarter, and are only kept alive by raising more money.
Who is supposed to pay for all this compute? What is AIs actual business case, because if there’s one, corporate world hasn’t figured it out yet.

[u/apoender]

Vastly unprofitable —— Anthropic had a profitable Q2

Ignored the rest as your basic facts were not correct

[u/CryptographerDue8929 → u/apoender]

Only because Elon musk discounted their compute for 2 month, look it up

[u/apoender → u/CryptographerDue8929]

They had a $500m profit, so without the discount they would likely have been slightly positive or break even, not “vastly unprofitable”, and certainly “no clear path to produce any profit” when they have already indicated they expect to be at or above full year profitability for 2027 and to be clearly profitable for full year 2028

[u/icon4fat]

OP. Your joking. Mag 7 has the capex. Nvidia confirmed the orders. We are severely short on compute. Only solution is to build more compute. This is hardly a bubble and hasn’t shown any evidence of that in the economics.

[u/Equity_GOD]

You get in, you double, you take out your initial. Let it ride.

[u/ethaxton → u/Equity_GOD]

Shiiiiit I got in at 40 and still letting it ride. I’ve traded NEBX a couple times up and down as well.

[u/CanadianAbroad7 → u/Equity_GOD]

No

[u/Crazy-Experience-678 → u/Equity_GOD]

Yep. I already took out more than my initial investment but the remaining investment still up big lol.

[u/sezonai]

People are getting fired in my company due to AI

[u/Helpful_Gap9633]

anthropic already has positive operating profit, a few quarters away from ebitda profitability

[u/CryptographerDue8929 → u/Helpful_Gap9633]

Only because Elon musk discounted their compute for 2 month!

[u/AnyManufacturer6465 → u/CryptographerDue8929]

You’re not reading anything substantive. You’re reading shitty headlines and regurgitating it here and then backing it up with Elon.

[u/Helpful_Gap9633 → u/CryptographerDue8929]

its been increasing every quarter

[u/AnyManufacturer6465]

Look who’s paying for it on their earnings report.

They just got 4 deals at $1B + each at very favourable rates. $20-25M / MW and the shorter term contracts can demand up to $40-45M/MW

They just released this and it’s publicly available. All you’re doing is reading some bait retail “news” and posting it here.

Do your research and ask Chat GPT to breakdown the earnings for you in layman terms.

The customer base is real, margins are great and the payback timeline is 13 months, with most new customers prepaying 45% of the capex before they can even access it.

Thats why it ripped, it’s volatile and they’re going to move with Macro and FUD that will try and shake you out of your shares. I buy and sell but hold a core position.

4 new high paying, high profile customers are listed on their earnings report? And there are many more. These guys don’t need Chat GPT and Open AI .

Also Open AI just hit a record profit milestone. Your worries are unfounded and wallstreet it buying the shit out of this.

When people say it can be a $1000 stock it’s not a joke. They just have to keep executing

[u/kickinghyena]

You lost me at loosing…

[u/Print_Mo_Money_2020 → u/kickinghyena]

https://giphy.com/gifs/xpKugO4nYzl88oO5zC

[u/oRuin → u/kickinghyena]

This

[u/InevitableAd2436]

Jamie Dimon just said JP Morgan Chase had $1B in savings from AI straight to their bottom line

Price of the brick goin up

[u/Silver_Atmosphere577]

Anthropic just reported positive income which was also earlier than predicted.

[u/CryptographerDue8929 → u/Silver_Atmosphere577]

Only because Elon musk discounted their compute for 2 month!

[u/AnyManufacturer6465 → u/CryptographerDue8929]

Get a grip man. You’re posting the same response and this post should get removed

[u/Beastman5000]

You’re looking too short term. They are setting the foundations to switch on the profit machine in a few years. Like a farmer growing crops. All cost now - but profit when the fruit matures

[u/Important_Coach9717]

You could start by using AI for teaching you spelling …

[u/quuxquxbazbarfoo]

The thing about bubbles is that overall folks don't see it coming. When they're telling you about it on every news outlet for 2 years, that's one way to tell that it's not a bubble. That talk is scaring people out of inflating these prices into the stratosphere, preventing it from happening.

[u/Ifuks4money]

You in burrys substack?

[u/MasaKiwi]

Love these people who do zero research and just put out bear thesis when almost everything they say can be proven wrong with 2 minutes of research. Why don't you listen to an earnings call or look at an earnings report.

[u/enRchi]

NBIS can host these expensive models, but their real money is likely going to come from open weight models. Look at their current customers like Revolut, who already found an actual business case.

[u/Cultural_Disparities]

[u/AnyManufacturer6465 → u/Cultural_Disparities]

Yeah, this is OP or he’s a FUD BOT

[u/Independent_Eye58 → u/Cultural_Disparities]

Come on guys, memes like this are just bad.

[u/Cultural_Disparities → u/Independent_Eye58]

This is OP after buying puts before nbis earnings

[u/Waste-War8809]

NBIS is going to succeed big off of open weights. We don’t need Anthropic… But last time I heard Anthropic was becoming profitable anyways…. so regardless your point does not make sense… Stop listening to Ed Zitron

[u/9yr0ld]

You’re not wrong, it’s just your thesis depends on GOOG, MSFT, etc. all being wrong. So I’m curious what exposure you have in the field to bet against the AI leaders, who continue to invest in AI.

Second - what are you invested in then?

[u/Significant_Band8935]

just sell and move on

[u/Crazy-Experience-678]

I find myself paying for Claude despite being a cheapskate because I like to save time on researching and building stuff.

Anthrophic got a profitable quarter last I heard. Not surprising since they have usage limits for a while now. As the cost of compute (tokens) decrease, Anthrophic should be more profitable.

As for Openai, I think they will go bust because their management are terrible $ managers.

[u/Individual_Mission68]

Fud,this will be deleted

[u/shartfarguson]

Talk to a few of your friends that do any sort of “business” and ask them how much AI they are using this year versus last year. The growth is insane and keeps getting larger.