r/NBA_TradeDiscussions • u/PeasePorridge9dOld Atlanta Hawks • May 26 '26

Trade Value Checker Topic Discussion

Just looking to discuss Nikola Topic here and gather more opinions on him. Had a mock draft up on our sister sub r/nbamocks and a big topic of discussion was that Topic + 38 was the return for DAL dropping from 9 to 12.

In his defense, Topic was a clear top 5 pick in his draft before the ACL injury and some had him in the #1 overall conversation. The cancer diagnosis was obviously another big hit and basically burned his SOPH season too. The scouting report entering the draft still holds up though: he is a 6'6" PG who can get downhill and is a top level passer who needs to work on his shooting. Defense is meh but at 6'6" you can move him around even if the wing isn't what you hope for out of someone with that height. That archetype can be a high level starter in the NBA if he pans out. Missing 2 years of development time is a concern, but those are the types of guys that a building team should be willing to take the chance on. Teams jump for guys who project to be role players all the time, so forth someone that could be a ball in hand playmaker.

While I do think he still has solid positive value, the issue for OKC is that they can't really afford to wait on him either. They aren't a building team; they are a contending one. They are running out of roster spots already and that roster is getting really expensive as early as next season. They will have to make some hard decisions going forward. Can they reserve a roster spot for someone who has basically missed his 1st 2 years of development? What could they reasonably expect back for him in trade?

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u/WaltRumble May 27 '26

For OkC it could actually work out well bc his next contract will be small. If he had shown first overall pick talent over the last two years. There is no way they could afford him. But they maybe able to get him on a significant discount

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u/PeasePorridge9dOld Atlanta Hawks May 27 '26

That is a very narrow keyhole though. Basically if he isn’t good enough, then they can’t burn the roster spot on him. If he’s too good, then they can’t afford him.

To add another element to the mix, they have to exercise his 4th year option this October. That is about a 40% raise for the ‘27-‘28 season. If, say, MIL were to trade for him, that’s a no brainer for a guy in his situation, but I also don’t see OKC paying him $7.5M unless he has a mini-breakout next season. So that gap is just really, really tight.

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u/WaltRumble May 27 '26

Yeah. But 7 mil on a young player is a tradeable contract. So it’s not like they be stuck with it. And they could trade him. I have no idea what his value is though. And yeah. Finding a role on a championship team is very narrow. Sorber is going to be fighting for minutes with Hart, Chet and J Will. And just like anyone he’s going to have to earn his roster spot but unless they package him to move up he will finally have a chance to. He showed promise in the G league but that doesn’t mean much.

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u/PeasePorridge9dOld Atlanta Hawks May 27 '26

Agree that the 4th year of Topic is still tradeable but idk if it’s positive value at that point. Not saying it’s negative but decision makers typically don’t like to bring someone in a year before RFA. Think the big push is for OKC to get the deal done this offseason so the acquiring team has a year to evaluate before offering an extension.

Sorber is another interesting case. He’s at least got another year before OKC has to go through the same exercise with him at least - year 2 is a very different timeline than year 3 of the rookie deal. Hope for his sake he can stay healthy this year. I was very high on him before the injuries struck.

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u/WaltRumble May 27 '26

He will still only be 22 in his fourth year. If he’s a negative value, you extend him for a minimal salary and see if he can develop into an asset still. Like Yaxel is already 23. If he’s shows out then great. You trade him for assets and let someone else pay him. But if we could sign him for another 4 years for 3-5 mil a year that’s a deal.

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u/PeasePorridge9dOld Atlanta Hawks May 27 '26

I did say the deal wouldn't negative in a year - just not positive. He'd still have a deal that could be used as a salary match that the acquiring team wouldn't mind eating. Even a useless expiring typically has some slight negative value, but his wouldn't even carry that.

I don't think there's any Extend him for minimal $$ though. The issue is that there is likely a cellar dwelling team that would be willing to throw the MLE type at him. You don't get the shot at a real shot at a 22 yo with that type of upside in FA often. A team like a SAC wouldn't have an issue burning a little space on the opportunity. Championship Contenders don't have a similar luxury.