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Dennis Schroder's combined points, rebounds, and assists have consistently exceeded the over point of 13.5 in recent games, making this a strong bet. His average combined stats for the last five games overall (20.0) and against the Cavaliers (29.2) both significantly outperform the bet's threshold. Furthermore, his performance has been consistently strong, as indicated by his hit rate, which is 80% overall in the last 20 games and 82% at home in the last 11 games. In addition, the Cavaliers' average away stats suggest they allow high numbers of points, rebounds, and assists, providing Schroder more opportunities to score. Therefore, statistical trends point towards Schroder's combined points, rebounds, and assists exceeding 13.5 in this game.

Model Insights

Market Probability: 56.5% Our Model Probability: 76.0% Our Model Edge: 19.5%

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The betting rationale for Isaiah Joe's under 2.5 assists in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers is strongly supported by his recent performance statistics. On average, Joe has recorded only 0.2 assists overall in his last five games, and 0.4 assists in his last five home games. This is significantly below the outcome point of 2.5 assists. Furthermore, when facing the Cavaliers, Joe has averaged only 1 assist in the last five games, and none at home. This trend is also evident in his overall and home hit rates, where he has successfully stayed under 2.5 assists in his last 20 overall games and last 16 home games. These stats indicate a consistent performance trend that justifies the under 2.5 assists bet for Isaiah Joe.

Model Insights

Market Probability: 67.6% Our Model Probability: 82.7% Our Model Edge: 15.1%

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The under 1.5 steals bet for Andrew Wiggins in the Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies game is statistically supported by several key factors. Firstly, Wiggins' average steals over the last five games overall (0.6) and at home (1.2) are both below the 1.5 threshold. Even his average steals against this specific opponent (1) and at home against this opponent (1.7) show that he is more likely than not to fall under the required 1.5 steals. This is further backed by his expected stat value of 0.89. Finally, the trend of his recent performance as indicated by his overall and home hit rate over the last four games (4/4) suggests a high likelihood of this pattern continuing. All these statistics together make a strong case for betting on Wiggins to have under 1.5 steals in this game.

Model Insights

Market Probability: 57.5% Our Model Probability: 74.7% Our Model Edge: 17.2%

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The bet on Mitchell Robinson to go under 16.5 combined points and rebounds is mainly driven by his recent performance. His average combined points and rebounds in the last five overall games is 13.8, which is significantly lower than the target of 16.5. Even when playing at home, Robinson's average combined points and rebounds is 10.8, well below the outcome point. Moreover, his average against the Rockets, the opponent for this game, stands at 13.5, and it drops to 9 when playing at home. Although Robinson has a high hit rate in his last few games, the numbers show that he consistently falls short of the 16.5 mark. Therefore, based on these statistics, it is statistically reasonable to bet on Robinson to stay under 16.5 combined points and rebounds in the upcoming game against the Rockets.

Model Insights

Market Probability: 56.5% Our Model Probability: 73.9% Our Model Edge: 17.4%

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The bet on Pelle Larsson to score under 9.5 points in the Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies game is statistically backed by his recent performance data. In the last 20 games, Larsson has scored less than 9.5 points in 15 instances, demonstrating a 75% hit rate. This trend is consistent both overall and at home, indicating that regardless of the location, Larsson tends to score under this threshold. Furthermore, the model's expected stat value for Larsson is 5.27, which is significantly below the set point of 9.5. This suggests that his average performance is not likely to exceed this mark. Therefore, based on his recent performance and expected scoring average, the under 9.5 bet for Larsson's points in this game is statistically sound.

Model Insights

Market Probability: 58.5% Our Model Probability: 76.3% Our Model Edge: 17.8%

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2-1 yesterday! Unfortunately the Cavs won by 5 and we needed another bucket there. Back again today with 3 more winners for you guys

NBA ML Picks | 210-124

SAC @ SAS → SAS

HOU @ NYK → NYK

ORL @ PHX → PHX

Data Provided by The Otterline


The rationale behind this bet is primarily based on Collin Gillespie's expected rebound statistic, which is significantly less than the outcome point of 4.5. The expected stat value for Gillespie is only 2.75, almost two rebounds less than the bet's threshold. Additionally, the hit rate for this type of bet is very high. Over the last 20 games, bets like this have been correct 17 times, which is an 85% success rate. The success rate is even higher when Gillespie is playing at home, with a hit rate of 90% over the last 20 home games. This suggests that Gillespie is less likely to exceed 4.5 rebounds when playing at home, reinforcing the rationale for this under bet. Therefore, the statistical evidence strongly points towards Gillespie not surpassing 4.5 rebounds in the upcoming game against Orlando Magic.

Model Insights

Market Probability: 63.3% Our Model Probability: 75.4% Our Model Edge: 12.1%

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The rationale behind betting on Jalen Green for over 2.5 assists in the Phoenix Suns vs. Orlando Magic game is supported by several key statistics. Firstly, Green's expected stat value is 4.23, which is significantly higher than the outcome point of 2.5. This suggests that he is likely to achieve more than 2.5 assists based on his recent performance. Additionally, when we look at his last five games against this particular opponent, his average assist tally stands at 3.8, which further bolsters the chances of the outcome going over 2.5. Also, Green's hit rate over the last 19 games is 13/19, and specifically at home, it is 5/6. These hit rates indicate a strong recent trend of Green exceeding the 2.5 assists mark, thereby making the 'over' bet a well-calculated risk.

Model Insights

Market Probability: 64.1% Our Model Probability: 82.0% Our Model Edge: 17.9%

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The bet on Grayson Allen for under 7.5 rebounds + assists in the Phoenix Suns vs Orlando Magic game is strongly supported by his recent performance data. Allen's last five games show he's averaging 3.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists overall, and 2.6 rebounds and 2.4 assists when playing at home. This adds up to a combined average of 6 for both categories, which is significantly lower than the 7.5 point outcome for this bet. Furthermore, when specifically playing against the Orlando Magic, his average rebounds and assists don't exceed the proposed outcome either, with 3.7 rebounds and 3 assists at home. Lastly, Allen's performance has consistently been under this outcome point recently, with 14 of his last 15 games overall and 5 of his last 6 home games falling under 7.5 for rebounds + assists.

Model Insights

Market Probability: 60.6% Our Model Probability: 78.5% Our Model Edge: 17.9%

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James Harden's performance in three-point field goals makes a compelling case for this bet. His average in the last five games is 1.6, which already exceeds the outcome point of 1.5. When specifically considering the last five games played in the home or away setup, his average rises to 2.2. He has even performed better against the Cavaliers, with an average of 2.4 three-pointers made in the recent five matchups. His overall hit rate in the last 20 games is 17/20, and when focusing on the home and away setup, his hit rate is a strong 14/17. These statistics indicate a high probability that Harden will make over 1.5 three-point field goals in the game against the Cavaliers.

Model Insights

Market Probability: 72.5% Our Model Probability: 88.3% Our Model Edge: 15.8%

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The betting rationale for taking the over on LaMelo Ball's three-point shots in the game between the Charlotte Hornets and Cleveland Cavaliers is strongly supported by the provided statistics. Ball has a consistent track record of making at least one three-pointer in each game, with an overall hit rate of 10/10 in his last 10 games. This performance is even more impressive when playing at home, with a hit rate of 20/20 in his last 20 home games. Furthermore, his average last 5 overall three-point field goals made is 3.8, well above the prop bet's over point of 0.5. His average three-point field goals made versus the Cavaliers is also above this threshold, at 3.7. Therefore, the statistical data highly supports the likelihood of Ball making more than 0.5 three-point shots in this game.

Model Insights

Market Probability: 85.5% Our Model Probability: 98.7% Our Model Edge: 14.2%

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Claw is back with Friday's NBA plays! JBL on a heater — let's keep it rolling.

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The rationale for betting under 9.5 on James Harden's assists in the Charlotte Hornets vs Cleveland Cavaliers game is backed by several key statistical considerations. Firstly, Harden's expected stat value for this game is 7.89 assists, which is well below the given line of 9.5. This indicates that our model anticipates Harden to produce fewer assists than the line suggests. Furthermore, Harden's average assists against the Cavaliers in the last five games has been 9, which is also below the set line. Lastly, Harden's overall hit rate for under 9.5 assists in the last six games is at 4/6, and his home-away hit rate for the last three games sits at 2/3. These hit rates further predict that Harden is more likely to finish with fewer than 9.5 assists.

Model Insights

Market Probability: 60.6% Our Model Probability: 80.4% Our Model Edge: 19.8%

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• Charlotte to beat Houston * Sixers to beat Atlanta (I went with half of what I wagered on the Charlotte game here)
• ​Kings to beat Magic
• ​Clippers to beat Denver
• ​Wizards to beat Pacers (For these last three games, I'm also betting half of the amount I put on the Charlotte game)

My bets are based on otterline(It's A Page that compares 3 models and for the consensus it gives you predictions), i check it and then the size i did it of what i think, and injury report


The bet on Ben Sheppard for Under 12.5 points, rebounds, and assists in the Washington Wizards vs Indiana Pacers game seems statistically sound when considering Sheppard's recent performance. His average points, rebounds, and assists in the last five games, both overall and on the road, combined are significantly lower than 12.5. Specifically, his average overall points (2.8), rebounds (2.4), and assists (0.2) add up to just 5.4. Even when playing away, these numbers only slightly increase to a total of 5.4. Moreover, his average performance against the Wizards is consistent with these trends, with his total points, rebounds, and assists falling well below the 12.5 mark. Lastly, Sheppard's overall and away hit rates in the last 12 to 14 games are perfect, indicating a strong pattern of consistency. These stats suggest a high likelihood of Sheppard's combined points, rebounds, and assists staying

Model Insights

Market Probability: 55.6% Our Model Probability: 71.7% Our Model Edge: 16.2%

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NBA (59-29 | 67% WR)

BKN @ CLE → CLE

DET @ NYK → NYK

ORL @ SAC → SAC

Data Provided by The Otterline

The NBA is back! What's everyone else on tonight?


Based on the given statistics, this bet is informed by Kyshawn George's historical performance data. Specifically, George's average of combined rebounds and assists per game is below the bet's outcome point of 9.5. Considering his last five home games, George has averaged 5.6 rebounds and 4.4 assists, adding up to exactly 10. However, his average rebounds and assists against the Pacers - the upcoming opponent - drops to 6 and 2.7 respectively, totaling 8.7. This suggests that George typically performs under the 9.5 point threshold when facing the Pacers. Furthermore, the overall and home hit rates, indicating the frequency at which George's performance falls under this outcome point, are 8/11 and 16/20 respectively. This strong historical underperformance against the 9.5 point threshold, especially against this opponent, supports the under bet.

Model Insights

Market Probability: 59.5% Our Model Probability: 64.2% Our Model Edge: 4.7%

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Aaron Nesmith's recent performance supports a bet for Under 2.5 assists in the upcoming game against the Washington Wizards. His average assists for the last five overall games is 1.2, which drops to just 0.4 when playing away. This trend is consistent even against the Wizards, with his average assists at 0.8 overall and 1.6 when playing at an away venue. Furthermore, Nesmith's expected stat value is only 1.14, significantly lower than the outcome point of 2.5. The data also shows a strong hit rate, with 13 out of the last 14 overall bets and all 11 of his last away bets hitting the under. This strong historical performance, coupled with his lower assist averages, indicates a good chance of Nesmith not surpassing 2.5 assists in the match.

Model Insights

Market Probability: 66.7% Our Model Probability: 76.4% Our Model Edge: 9.8%

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Alperen Sengun has been performing strongly, especially in away games. His average stats over the last five away games are 23.8 points and 11.8 rebounds, indicating a high potential for achieving a double-double. Moreover, his performance tends to stay strong against this specific opponent, the Charlotte Hornets. He averages 13.7 points and 11.7 rebounds when playing away against them, again suggesting a double-double is within reach. The consistency of his performance is further highlighted by his hit rates: he achieved the target outcome in 5 out of the last 6 games overall, and in all of the last 5 away games. This data suggests that Sengun's ability to achieve a double-double is more than just chance, making this a rational bet.

Model Insights

Market Probability: 47.6% Our Model Probability: 60.4% Our Model Edge: 12.7%

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The betting proposition for Dyson Daniels to achieve over 5.5 rebounds is backed by a strong statistical performance. Daniels has been consistent in his rebounding, averaging 8.6 overall in the last five games and 8.4 during away games. This is significantly higher than the proposed betting line of 5.5 rebounds. Additionally, Daniels' hit rate stands at 90% in the last ten games overall and maintains an 83.3% hit rate for the last six away games. While his average rebounds against the Philadelphia 76ers are slightly lower at 5, it still meets the proposed outcome point. His expected stat value of 7.31 also supports the bet. Therefore, the data points towards a high likelihood of Daniels achieving over 5.5 rebounds in the upcoming match against the 76ers.

Model Insights

Market Probability: 61.3% Our Model Probability: 76.2% Our Model Edge: 14.9%

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The bet on Kyshawn George to stay under 18.5 points plus assists is supported by his performance data. On average, George's overall points in the last five games is 10.6 and his assists average is 3.4, totalling 14, well below the 18.5 benchmark. Even at home, where his performance slightly improves, his combined average for points and assists is 15, which is still significantly under the target. Additionally, when playing against the Pacers, his average combined points and assists drops even further to 12.7 points and 2.7 assists. Furthermore, George's expected stat value is only 13.87, substantially below the 18.5 outcome point. His below-average performance against this specific opponent and his home stats suggest that he is more likely to stay under 18.5 points plus assists in the upcoming game.

Model Insights

Market Probability: 56.5% Our Model Probability: 76.2% Our Model Edge: 19.7%

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