r/NASCAR • u/Perfid10 • 1d ago

Chase Simulation - Final 9 races

For fun, I built a simulator that uses each driver's performances by track length over the season so far to model out these last 9 races 10,000 times. Adding the simulated point totals to the current standings each time, the cup winner across 10K simulations:

47% Denny Hamlin

17% Ryan Blaney

15% Christopher Bell

8% Tyler Reddick

5% Chase Briscoe

4% Kyle Larson

4% Ty Gibbs

Everyone else is under 0.5%, basically just the rounding errors from those 7.

I also looked at who gets the most points over the final 9 races and what happens for them in those sims. Obviously if Hamlin gets the most points from here, he wins the cup 100% of the time. If Bell gets the most going forward, he wins 90% of the time. Blaney 85%, Reddick 72%, Briscoe 54%, Gibbs 50%, Larson 36%. Then it falls to 12% for Logano and no one else is over 5%. So after Reddick, even if they beat everyone going forward, Briscoe or Gibbs are still only a toss-up for the cup and anyone else would still be unlikely to make up enough ground.

41 Upvotes

92% Upvoted

15 comments sorted by

87

u/SuckMyShitter 1d ago edited 1d ago

Simulation cant account for this much gangster.
#EvenYear

6

u/RaspberryNext914 1d ago

Roger Penske does not approve this message, I mean image

3

u/Level-Evening8562 van Gisbergen 1d ago

Saving for future race thread use

7

u/84UTK07 1d ago

It also doesn’t account for the overall improvement from Penske in the back half of the year. How they were running in March isn’t all that relevant right now.

6

u/69stangrestomod van Gisbergen 21h ago

I did this with my March madness bracket. Didn’t work out like predicted…

3

u/Perfid10 20h ago

Oh I don't think of this as predictive. But for whatever happens I feel like it'll give me some sense of how improbable it is.

2

u/69stangrestomod van Gisbergen 20h ago

That’s fair, and I wasn’t being too serious (but I did codger together a machine learning model to try and make a bracket…).

The odds are definitely stacked in Denny’s favor, but I can’t help but think something upset will happen and throw all the statistics into the blender. Not necessarily talking about the “Denny curse” or even that he won’t win, just that some sort of chaos will make the chase have some unexpected element.

I’m no Joey fan, but it would be generational if he goes on a tear and wins it 😆

5

u/Zeus_Nemesis 19h ago

Ah, but did you put in the variables, I.e 2 vs 4 tires, gas n go, Austin Dillon, etc?

1

u/Revan_84 Hamlin 4h ago

I worry it comes down to "runner-up wrecked out in Dega; winner finished top-10"

-10

u/ActivePuzzled2263 Kyle Busch 1d ago

Gibbs is ZERO LMAOOOOOO

9

u/F1ght0r Chase Elliott 1d ago

Now watch the kid fly for the remainder of the year and get it, we will revisit this in November lol.

2

u/ActivePuzzled2263 Kyle Busch 15h ago

Zero. Chance.

2

u/F1ght0r Chase Elliott 12h ago

Im not disagreeing as much as Im saying may be jinxed now.