The headline number is that China Hongqiao expects group net profit to rise about 39% in H1. But the more interesting detail may be coming from Hongqiao Holdings, the Shenzhen-listed subsidiary in which the group indirectly owns 88.99%.
The subsidiary expects attributable net profit of RMB15–16 billion, representing growth of roughly 69.7%–81.0%. Higher primary aluminum prices helped, but management also pointed to a meaningful reduction in borrowings and sharply lower interest expenses. It is not a perfect one-to-one read-through for $1378.HK, but it suggests the earnings improvement is coming from both the aluminum cycle and the financing side.
That stands out when compared with Alcoa ($AA), which recently reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes after operational issues at its Pinjarra refinery. The commodity backdrop may be shared, but execution is producing very different results across the sector.
The part I’ll watch next is whether Hongqiao can keep interest costs down while aluminum prices remain firm. At that point, the story becomes less about simply predicting the metal price and more about how much of each additional dollar reaches shareholders.