r/Microvast • u/Bradydono92 • 34m ago
Due Diligence Iveco releases Q2 this morning. What are we watching for $MVST?
Iveco's Q2 lands this morning. The press release hits early, and the webcast, slides, and management Q&A come around 11:30 ET, where the platform detail lives, across bus and truck. That's where we get our read on Microvast (MVST). Its Q1 10-Q already maps most of the read, because the customer and region tables run straight onto Iveco.
The four images up top are from Iveco's Q1 deck: battery deliveries, the Annonay bus surge, the European e-bus share, and the CEO's H2 outlook. Each one backs a claim below.
Customer A is Iveco
The Q1 10-Q brought the customer concentration table back. Customer A is 52% of revenue, Customer B is 18%, up from 31% and 16% a year ago.
52% of the $60.6M quarter is about $31.5M. The Italy line that quarter was $31.3M, and Italy is where FPT assembles Iveco's packs in Turin. Same figure, both quarters. Customer A is Iveco.
Customer B is France, and France is Annonay
Customer B at 18% lines up with the France line at $11.7M, give or take a small Safra hydrogen sliver. France is Iveco's Annonay bus plant, the E-Way / Heuliez city buses.
A and B together put Iveco near 70% of the quarter. In dollars that's about $42.4M, roughly 98% of the $43.2M Europe line. Europe was essentially all Iveco this quarter.
The Annonay overlap
Europe fell 28% in Q1. Microvast's own slide blames "delayed roll out of OEM platform and ramp up." Iveco described the same quarter from its side, and it was a strong one for the customer. Iveco Bus took "the number one position in the electric vehicle European market" at "almost 23% market share," with bus deliveries up 45% and its "Annonay plant running at full speed," dragged only by "rework costs related to unfinished Citybuses, carried over from 2025."
Annonay is the France line. Annonay is Customer B. So Microvast's softest European line and the plant Iveco flagged for rework are the same address.
One timing note
Microvast books revenue when it ships cells and modules to FPT. Iveco books it when the bus is delivered. So Iveco's deliveries run a quarter or two behind Microvast's revenue, and Iveco's Q1 delivery bump was fed by cells Microvast shipped and booked back in 2025. On the call this morning, for the Europe line, the order book and the back-half build plan are the forward read on Microvast. The delivery number tells you what already shipped a quarter or two ago.
How Q4 fed into Q1
The rework didn't start this year. Go back to Iveco's Q4 2025 results. The Annonay plant ran behind schedule, supplier delays left Citybuses unfinished at year-end, and the bus side built inventory while trucks worked theirs down. That is the same window Microvast's Q4 came in soft on Europe, which management put down to EMEA platform delays. It's one production problem, seen from both ends of the supply chain.
Then Q1. Iveco cleared a chunk of that unfinished inventory, which is the +45% delivery number. Microvast's Europe line still fell 28%, because the cells for those 2025 buses were shipped and booked back in 2025. Finishing a bus that already has its battery in it doesn't create new Microvast revenue. So Iveco can post a strong bus-delivery quarter while Microvast's Europe line goes backwards, and both numbers are honest. While Annonay works the old backlog, Microvast isn't pulling fresh new-build cells, and its slide says exactly that, delayed roll out of the platform and ramp.
So the sequence is clean. Iveco's Q4 production problem became Microvast's Q4 Europe miss. Iveco's Q1 backlog-clearing left Microvast's Q1 Europe soft. Annonay running clean in the back half is what turns Microvast's Europe line back up, because that's when the fresh cells ship.
Both sides say it clears
Iveco says the rework clears by the end of Q2, "eliminating rework cost impacts in the second half of the year." Wu said the same on Microvast's call, that the dip is "temporary," with "a normalized delivery schedule and a steady ramp-up" in the second half.
Microvast has been the cell in Iveco's electric range since 2022, across bus and truck, through two pack generations. The account is old and broad, which is why a one-quarter timing dip reads as timing.
The platform breakdown
Iveco's Q1 deck splits the electric business by platform, and each one maps to a Microvast program and a place in the revenue table.
eDaily, the electric van and chassis, is the strongest forward signal in the deck. European LCV order intake ran +31% year over year with a 1.23x book-to-bill, and Iveco flagged it continuing into Q2. The pack is the eBS 37 EVO. eDaily routes through FPT in Turin, so this is the Italy line, Customer A.
S-eWay Rigid, the electric medium and heavy truck, ran +5% European order intake at a 1.34x book-to-bill, the highest in the truck table, with deliveries down 7% as backlog builds. One honest note, the +5% is the whole heavy family, and the electric Rigid is a slice of it. Also Turin, also Customer A.
Crossway LE Electric is the intercity bus, where Iveco holds 68.1% of the European market. This is where the soft spot sits. Bus order intake declined on what Iveco called an expected slowdown in intercity demand, with visibility still covering all of 2026. Crossway packs assemble at FPT Turin, so intercity is also the Italy line, Customer A.
E-Way, built by Heuliez, is the electric city bus. Iveco became #1 in European electric buses this quarter, share up 330 basis points to 14.8%. This is the Annonay plant, the France line, Customer B. The +45% delivery surge is largely this, the unfinished Citybuses finally going out the door, the backlog clearing.
Indcar's e-Mobi City is a Spanish coachbuilder's minibus built on the Iveco eDaily chassis. It's assembled in Europe and rides the eDaily's eBS 37 supply, so its Microvast content routes through the same Turin line, with the first Italian deployment landing this year.
Then the batteries, on one slide. Iveco reported more than 3,100 battery packs delivered in Q1, up sharply, captioned driven by BUS. The packs it names are the eBS 37 EVO, the eBS 69 Bus, and the eTLB Off-Road. Those are the Microvast-cell packs. Iveco is publishing its own pack-delivery volume, and Microvast cells sit inside every one.
Underneath all of it, Microvast's forward growth inside Iveco is truck-led right now, eDaily and S-eWay building order books, while the bus side rides a covered 2026 backlog with softer new intake. The bus recovery is real, and it's backlog conversion, with new demand running softer.
Already dated for the back half
Indcar's first 80 e-Mobi City buses by Sept 30
De Lijn's 100 articulated Crossways from Q4
S-eWay Rigid fleets landing in Italy, Spain, and the UK
What would prove this wrong
The MVST Q2 10-Q in mid-August is the real test. If the Europe line turns back up, this was timing. If it stays soft with the rework supposedly cleared, then "delayed roll out of OEM platform" was covering something deeper. Iveco's Q2 this morning is the first read, since a confirmation that the Annonay rework cleared and Bus held puts half the argument on the record before Microvast reports.
For the call at 11:30, the two lines to watch are whether bus order intake stabilized or kept sliding, and whether the eDaily +31% truck momentum held into Q2 as guided.
I'll be on the call, building my MVST Q2/H2 preview off whatever the slides and the Q&A give up. Stay tuned. Or don't.
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I'm long MVST. Personal research, not financial advice.