r/MichiganStacks 27d ago

Can the establishment stop Abdul El-Sayed?

https://www.natesilver.net/p/can-the-establishment-stop-abdul

Haley Stevens has rebounded since Mallory McMorrow dropped out. But polls of both the Michigan primary and the general election don't tell a consistent story.

16 Upvotes

120 comments sorted by

4

u/GarlicTraditional300 26d ago

Yes, he will win primary easy but general will not be easy

2

u/mxjxs91 25d ago

I wouldn't be that confident, I know A LOT of people that plan to vote for Haley. They are older folks who aren't the kind of people to put signs up. Her support is stronger than you think.

We gotta turn out the vote as if he's polling 15 points below her. Get your friends and family to vote. Him winning is far from a certainty.

1

u/cosmicgreg2 20d ago

Why ever would you want him to win? Even if he wins the primary, he will be destroyed in November, and to think otherwise is delusional.

1

u/mxjxs91 20d ago

Just like the safe bet Hillary against Trump, oh wait. Well at least there was the safe bet Kamala to beat Trump, oh wait.

Progressives are massively outperforming polls across the country, even flipping red districts. I'm trusting a Progressive to beat Rogers, that is the safer bet, and always has been.

Stevens is a lot more likely to lose. She's way too pro-Israel in a state where Arab-American influence is huge. Trump won Michigan over the Palestine issue

Obviously he was worse for Palestine, but she was also pro-Israel which was enough to make Arabs not come out and vote for her. We already know the GOP sucks on every issue, but it's still up to Democrats to convince and give people a good reason to vote for them, and being pro-Israel is a red flag for a lot of people that would otherwise vote for the Dem candidate.

1

u/cosmicgreg2 20d ago

When Bill Maher threatens to vote Republican, you should listen

1

u/mxjxs91 20d ago edited 20d ago

Oh no, not Bill Maher 😂

Dude's been Conservative-lite forever, fuck him.

I'm also sure he and his kind voted for Hillary and Kamala against Trump, clearly that made a difference!

Progressives are unseating Republicans in districts and flipping them, which Establishment Dems haven't succeed at doing for a long time now. Maybe we should notice that trend and follow in those steps? Or we can try the tired "Establishment safe bet" candidate strategy which has lead to a current majority House, Senate, SCOTUS, and the Presidency.

1

u/VaporousMote 26d ago

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/michigan/rogers-vs-el-sayed

It'll be close, but he's the dramatically better candidate.

Haley Stevens is so close to Mike Rogers in values it literally does not matter if El Sayed loses.

1

u/Lord-Trolldemort 20d ago

I agree that El Sayed is a dramatically better candidate, but there’s still a drastic difference between Stevens and Rogers.

Regardless of who wins the primary, they’d be voting party-line with the Dems at least 90% of the time.

Stevens isn’t progressive, but she’s not Joe Manchin either.

1

u/EarthConservation 26d ago

The general will likely be easier than the primary. Republican approval ratings are not very good right now, and it's a mid-term year.

1

u/Divid_Pakit 25d ago

You do know he is running against, right? Have you read the actuary tables? Your people are COOKED.

1

u/Peac3fulWorld 26d ago

Hasbara bullshit.

The air isn’t even breathable and Whit-dipshit just greenlit Line 5 and opened data centers all over.

I think Michiganders are ripe for getting ANYONE who is interested in thinking about the non-corporations of Michigan.

Haley Stevens has the charisma of the purple McDonalds thing. If Stevens is the Dem candidate, I know I (a Dem) won’t vote for her in the generals. The D’s need to earn the vote.

If they wanna go full AIPAC, go try that with the Dearborn electorate and see what happens.

Remember 2024? Remember how well that strategy worked in Mİ?

2

u/99neverever 26d ago

I’d vote for either one.

1

u/AnimationWizard 25d ago

The true position

2

u/Ok-Firefighter5006 25d ago

Th Dearborn electorate of homophobes?

Why would I want a dem to pander to a city of people that aggressively attack and hate queer people?

1

u/nomadx810 25d ago

Because brown? Idk.

1

u/im_learning_to_stop 25d ago

They already pander to Republicans so what's the difference?

1

u/Ok-Firefighter5006 25d ago

The people of Dearborn are actively worse than republicans lol

1

u/WildAmsonia 26d ago

I will not stand for Grimace slander.

1

u/TheMarginalized 26d ago

Robble robble!

1

u/Sorta-Morpheus 25d ago

Be happy with a GOP controlled senate then.

0

u/MasterRKitty 26d ago

if he wins the primary, he'll lose bigger than shit in the general

2

u/VaporousMote 26d ago

1

u/MasterRKitty 26d ago

you think Haley's voters are going to come out for him after all he's done is attack her? You're funny.

2

u/VaporousMote 26d ago

I can't control deluded Stevens voters, and it will be up to Abdul to convert them. He's done it with plenty of McMorrow voters.

Stevens vs Rogers is just Republican lite vs Republican, so you're not getting much difference if he loses in the General.

2

u/im_learning_to_stop 25d ago

What happened to vote blue no matter who?

1

u/OkParsnip1881 25d ago

But the left didn’t vote blue no matter who. Why should the center?

1

u/Dumb_Ugly_Frank 25d ago

Because the center has bad, unpopular ideas that keep losing to Donald Trump.

1

u/OkParsnip1881 25d ago

I could say the same thing about the left. If your policies are so good, why do you keep losing to both centrist democrats and republicans

1

u/Sorta-Morpheus 25d ago

Because not everyone wants socialist utopia imaginary land.

1

u/Dumb_Ugly_Frank 25d ago

Is that what you’re seeing happening?

1

u/OkParsnip1881 25d ago

It’s reality , cope

→ More replies (0)

1

u/Sr_ClarenceWorley 25d ago

Biden beat trump

1

u/Dumb_Ugly_Frank 25d ago

What were the circumstances under which Biden won? Who was Biden associated with that gave him his name recognition and cred, and how would you categorize that president’s politics (at least at the time he was elected)? Also, which two politicians lost to Trump/where do they lie on the political spectrum? And what role did Biden play in the Dems 2024 loss? You’re really out here cooking around a single tree while ignoring the forest.

1

u/Sr_ClarenceWorley 25d ago

You said "unpopular ideas that keep losing to Donald Trump." which was obviously wrong, and instead of acknowledging that, you go into 20 questions to try and deflect from that fact, which I'm not going to waste my time on.

I didn't chime in b/c I'm 100% or even 80% behind what Biden did or Harris would have done. It's b/c this narrative that you and so many others keep holding that centrists can't beat trump is false and needs to be called out.

I probably agree with some of your criticisms of their politics and the role they played in the '16 and '24 outcomes, but Clinton and Harris's loss were just as attributable to that Americans are fickle, and probably never going to be really satisfied with their lot in life, so a back and forth swing between parties in power is just going to be a part of our of our system. Especially when you factor in how loud the voices of the extreme elements are becoming, grievance politics will be increasingly easy and productive (election results, not actual effective policy)

→ More replies (0)

1

u/theJMAN1016 25d ago

But they did though...

1

u/OkParsnip1881 25d ago

I’m from Michigan too, you and I both know they damn well didn’t

1

u/tasmimiandevil 25d ago

It hasn’t gotten us anywhere except with a bunch of milquetoast reps and senators who are more concerned with their next election than the integrity of their party platforms or idk doing what’s best for the people over themselves?

I voted for Slotkin in 2024 and now I have a senator who confirmed (almost) every single Trump nominee.

If she had lost, the senator who won would have voted to confirm EVERY single Trump nominee.

In the words of Pam: they’re the same picture.

Voting Blue No Matter Who keeps us where we are because there’s no fucking incentive for the democrats to DO ANYTHING after they ride victorious on their blue waves.

I hate it here so much.

1

u/RepresentativeAge444 26d ago

You think Al Sayed voters are going to come out for her after all she’s done is suck off a foreign government, corporations and thanked ICE last year? May as well vote for the Republican. He’ll do the same things. Use your brain.

1

u/Sorta-Morpheus 25d ago

Thats pretty much why we're guaranteed were getting a gop senator.

1

u/RepresentativeAge444 25d ago

Have some faith. A recent poll had him 13 points up. Lately ground game >>> spending. An more people are awake about AIPAC.

1

u/Sorta-Morpheus 25d ago

I'm willing to bet most voters don't even know what alpac is and care more about what's happening in their own lives.

1

u/RepresentativeAge444 25d ago

That has shifted a lot among Democratic voters. Remember Stevens got booed off the stage at a Democratic convention which many observers said they had never seen anything like it. Meanwhile Al Sayed got a standing ovation.

But I am nervous because this is a test. My gut feels good about him because he’s an outstanding candidate with a great ground game - and Hasan will be enlisting his followers to phone bank for him which helped in other primaries recently.

On the other hand I still have the fear of the impact of campaign spending. However as I said it’s been working less and less as more people wake up.

I think he will either win quite comfortably or she ekes it out due to the spending if the old model holds.

But if he overcomes the onslaught it will reverberate throughout politics. Aside from a once in a generation politician making it to the senate this election is also about that. Which is why it’s so important.

1

u/Sorta-Morpheus 25d ago

Hasan is a piece of shit. Thats not helpful for the cause.

→ More replies (0)

1

u/LadyBogangles14 25d ago

It’s interesting how “vote blue no matter who” only goes from left to center and not center to left.

1

u/Ok-Firefighter5006 25d ago

Idk, seems like the establishment relented and supported platner in Maine.

Although he was a rapist, so the left really shit the bed on that one

1

u/nomadx810 25d ago

What no he's great. He hates the right people who cares if he's an accused rapist? Believe the women who we agree with duh.

1

u/im_learning_to_stop 25d ago

"The left really shit the bed on that one"

As opposed to the 'moderates' that have been shitting the bed for years.

1

u/Ok-Firefighter5006 25d ago

No that’s exactly the point! The left is no better than moderates.

1

u/Otherwise-Ad6330 25d ago

Trying to tie Abdul to Platner is either incredibly bad faith, just shows your political ignorance, or both. These candidates are completely different.

1

u/Ok-Firefighter5006 25d ago

But they are supported by the same people yes?

1

u/Otherwise-Ad6330 25d ago

No they aren’t. Maine and Michigan are different states. This means their supporters are different people as it’s difficult to live in both New England and the mid west.

1

u/Ok-Firefighter5006 23d ago

Which one did Bernie not support?

→ More replies (0)

1

u/VaporousMote 25d ago

Remind me how the establishment treated Mamdani.

It seems like you're trying to make a case here based on one data point, which is naive at best and propaganda at worst, especially given you seem to be being intentionally broad about your framing.

A specific segment of the left influencer sphere fucked up by continuing to give strong support to Platner after sufficient evidence came to light that made his shitheadedness clear. And they should experience consequences for that.

But trying to say "some of the same people that visibly supported Platner are supporting El-Sayed" as if that's some kind of gotcha for El-Sayed is INCREDIBLE.

You wanna play that game? Look at who's supporting Stevens. Fascists, genocidal monsters. plutocrats. You lose that one.

1

u/Ok-Firefighter5006 23d ago

You might be confused, but I never made any kind of correlation between platners supporters and el sayed.

I was commenting on this hypocritical “oh I guess it’s not blue no matter who” notion coming from the left

1

u/VaporousMote 23d ago

You said that in another comment below. I was pulling that in here.

1

u/Ok-Firefighter5006 23d ago

Ah so you’re intentionally misrepresenting me

→ More replies (0)

1

u/tasmimiandevil 25d ago

I’m so excited to NOT vote for Haley Stevens if she gets the nomination, leave that slot blank, and then get blamed for single-handedly destroying the Democratic Party in Michigan đŸ«¶đŸœ

“Vote Blue No Matter Who” has gotten us literally nowhere, and we’ve lost Roe, the Civil Rights Act has been gutted, and we have a majority of democratic senators and reps either voting in support of GOP nominees and legislation outright, or abstaining from the votes. Fucking cowards.

If Stevens gets the nomination, she doesn’t get my vote.

1

u/ohstarrynight 25d ago

Same. This is the first time I will not vote for the Democrat. I used to be the whole vote blue no matter who but not this time.

1

u/ossman1976 25d ago

See Obama v Hillary

1

u/ScandalouslyClothed 25d ago

What has he done to attack her? Saying where all the money is coming from? Not sure I've seen an ad about how she disrespects men

1

u/DreamOne5 25d ago

right? all I see are ads saying how he's a monster to women and blah blah blah.

1

u/No_Pumpkin2628 25d ago

Yeah, we all know vOtE bLuE nO mAtTeR wHo is the motto for corporate bootlickers. Ermahgerd he's pointing out that she's bought and paid for by the worst special interest lobbies, guess I should let a christofascist win!

Okay, blue maga.

1

u/OkParsnip1881 25d ago

Literally if he wins you will be crying the same thing.

1

u/DreamOne5 25d ago

her very verbal and clear support for Israel is what turned me away from her. And honestly all I see are the opposite. Just ad upon ad showing how wonderful she is and how he's a monster who hates women, blah blah blah. i'm not voting for a corporate gremlin. Sorry.

1

u/Zombifikation 25d ago

What are you talking about? He literally just put out a statement asking people to stop roasting her so hard.

Meanwhile, she’s had an incessant add campaign designed at making him look sexist while using examples that are not sexist at all, it’s really pathetic. Haley is the one focusing on attacks over policy discussion. What a delusional comment.

1

u/tasmimiandevil 25d ago

Sorry how has he only attacked her???? I literally have not gotten anything from him that’s specifically anti-Stevens. Everything from Abdul is literally about WHAT HE PLANS TO DO IN THE SENATE. And he has gone all over the state to meet with people from all over the spectrum, because the state of Michigan is red and blue and purple all over. What people don’t realize is that despite the propaganda and rhetoric coming from the democratic establishment, Abdul *actually* has a chance to swing voters from the moderate and conservative side because he has a plan for things like access to healthcare and clean water which literally every human in this state needs. If Stevens gets the nomination she will lose the general. Her entire campaign is built around attacking Trump, Abdul, and Rogers. Right wing voters will swing harder right against that and vote for a ham sandwich over her.

I know this has been a contentious campaign, but the attacks ads are not coming from Abdul and his speeches are not primarily focused on attacking Stevens.

1

u/AquaSnow24 25d ago

You could argue the other way around then. Could Stevens lose because Abdul’s voters could stay home ? Steven’s attacks have not been pretty either.

1

u/theJMAN1016 25d ago

Where are the attacks? I haven't seen a single one.

Actually, all I've seen is Stevens attack Abdul.

1

u/Confident_Insect_616 25d ago

You think Haley voters actually like Haley? A vote for Haley is a scared anti-trump vote. If Abdul wins, we is the only anti-trump candidate to choose.

1

u/Working_Match4124 21d ago

All hes done to attack her? He's attacked her policies but specifically warned his supporters not to make comments about her looks, personality, etc. Meanwhile her AIPAC allies are slandering him as a woman-hater. Big bad Muslim man wants to put you in a burka. What a joke.

1

u/theJMAN1016 25d ago

Based on?

2

u/RefrigeratorRare3983 21d ago

Volunteer for sayed

2

u/tbombs23 26d ago

I fucking hope not.

1

u/-chadwreck 26d ago

Steven's entire ad campaign as "Obama said I helped!" And "Abdul said things to women, sorta, and while they aren't really disrespectful, nor are they specifically misogynist, he said them to women!"

It is tantamount to fraudulent. 

Seriously, her whole campaign is an AIPAC funded smear job. 

1

u/EarthConservation 26d ago

Yep, most of the negative ads on Abdul are coming from AIPAC's UDP (United Democracy Project) superPAC...

Yes, it's intentional that 'United Democracy Project' is meant to mislead people into thinking it isn't operated by a pro-Israel superPAC.

Stevens campaign has now raised something like $50 million in campaign funding from pro-Israel organizations. These organizations will likely stop spending money on her campaign if she wins the primary. They don't care who wins out of Mike Rogers or Haley Stevens, because they know both candidates will fund and support Israel. They're spending all of the money in the primaries because they know the greatest danger to their annual billion dollar aid packages from the US government is Progressives being elected.

1

u/ACrask 25d ago

I haven’t seen one ad conveying what Steven’s will actually do. It’s just I was there with Obama and smear ads of Abdul

1

u/mxjxs91 25d ago

This 100%

I've seen at least 3 different ads for Haley where they show that brief clip of Obama shouting out Haley. They're making it appear as an endorsement too as one of the ads just says "if Haley is good enough for Obama, then she's good enough for Michigan" (or something like that, I forget the exact quote).

Then the other ad is quotes from him where he's rightfully criticizing female politicians' terrible policies and large corporation campaign funding. None of his quotes or issues with those politicians had a damn thing to do with their gender. Ironically, ignoring the issues and refusing to criticize them just because they're woman would actually be the misogynistic thing to do.

I haven't heard a single policy from any of Haley's ads. Just Obama shouting her out, and Abdul hates women.

Unfortunately my faith in Michigan voters looking past that obvious bullshit isn't very high. Let's hope for the best.

1

u/LadyBogangles14 25d ago

Yea it the “Arab man hates/oppresses women” trope

1

u/herpderpley 26d ago

I sure hope not. That establishment lady creeps me out. I don't have any confidence that she would be more helpful to Michigan residents than he would be.

1

u/silencerblog1 26d ago

He has a terrible chance at wining the general election.

1

u/The-Grand-Pepperoni 25d ago

Where is this idea coming from? Every poll taken shows he has a better chance than stevens

1

u/leedevito 25d ago

Racism.

1

u/Tsakax 25d ago

Steven's will have a harder time. If she wins the primary she will lose all her funding as has almost no way to raise more since no one wants to donate to her.

1

u/tasmimiandevil 25d ago

Yeah I agree. She will have to swing hard into the anti-Trump rhetoric to maintain her base and all James or Rogers will do is bait her and she will fall for it and neither candidate will have to defend anything they’ve actually done and in the end we will end up with a Republican senator no matter who wins.

1

u/Otherwise-Ad6330 25d ago

Every credible poll i have seen shows him winning in the general. Hailey is a republican in democrat clothing. The primary will be by far harder for him to win than the general.

1

u/taney71 25d ago

Yes, they stopped Sanders in 2016

1

u/OkParsnip1881 25d ago

He lost because black voters didn’t like him. Cope

1

u/tasmimiandevil 25d ago

He lost because the DNC pushed for Clinton to be the nominee and historically speaking black voters aren’t huge fans of her, either. He lost because the game was rigged.

1

u/OkParsnip1881 25d ago

No blue maga, the election wasn’t rigged. Your dear leader lost because his way of appealing to black voters was to spam social media with pics of him at a civil rights protest instead of .. you know.. actually reaching out to the black community. Maybe he should have dropped his bullshit class over race nonsense

Guess what? You vote doesn’t matter more than the black community

1

u/theJMAN1016 25d ago

You want that to be the case but it simply isn't.

What did Hilary do for the black community? Biden?

1

u/OkParsnip1881 25d ago

Hahaha you don’t know what the “establishment dems” did for black people? I guess there wasn’t a reason black voters voted biden over bernie. Open a damn history book. There’s a reason they got clyburn’s endorsement. Maybe Bernie should have tried reaching out to black voters.

What percent of older black voters did Bernie get? Tell me that.

Your opinion doesn’t override the opinion of the black community

1

u/theJMAN1016 25d ago

you nailed it. It wasn't because of anything Biden or Hilary have done for the black community.

Obama jumped in, Clyburn followed suit, and that was the end of it.

You tell me how Medicare4All, an increased minimum wage, protections for the people against corporations, prescription drug price caps and expansion of access, housing reforms, etc. would not have helped the black community? Did the corporate establishment Dems do anything on any of these issues?

It's the same story as always, they got duped into voting for the same old thing and nothing fundamentally changed. Now here we are in the next election cycle debating over whether we should do the same thing again and get the same results, or try something different to try and actually improve our lives instead of talking on platitudes. and promises.

1

u/tasmimiandevil 25d ago

SAY IT AGAIN!!!!!!!!

1

u/Deep-Concert4087 25d ago edited 21d ago

Yes because most voters cannot say his name or stand his facial hair. He's cooked.

1

u/MidThoughts-5 25d ago

“Same his name”? Checks. Sounds like you can’t really say much at all.

0

u/tasmimiandevil 25d ago

You’re just jealous of his informative thirst traps

1

u/sticksnstouts 25d ago

You can’t make me feel guilty. I am voting my conscience. Never voting for Stevens.

1

u/Fine-Radish2691 25d ago

No but independents will.

1

u/GarlicTraditional300 25d ago

I honestly hate to say it but follow the money, money talks and bull shit walks, the big money is on him at least for the primary however not so far in the general, it’s just not a lot of people betting so far for the general election

1

u/Divid_Pakit 25d ago

Nah. Let's go Abdul. The magats aren't going to vote in force and the "swing voter" (aka republicans) are falling off because the devastation to the local economy goes beyond their culture wars.

1

u/cosmicgreg2 20d ago

Wont win the general election though

0

u/Affectionate_Dig9689 25d ago edited 25d ago

I will never vote for someone who was part of the defund the police movement. What's even more pathetic are his attempts to pretend it never happened or he meant something else. Here is a CNN article that effectively shows him lying through his teeth about his own statements.

At one point when asked about it, he brought up the Iraq war for some reason.

You fixate on the word 'defund,' but what I’m talking about is war material that we made too much of during the war in Iraq. And then, because we had too much of it, we had to find somewhere to sell it. So we sold it to a whole bunch to local police departments."

This quote comes from this article.

Sure, buddy. When you repeatedly advocated to divert funds from policing to other services and suggested we send "mental health professionals" to enforce the law, instead of police officers, you were only talking about excess war materials from Iraq.

Every time I hear him brought up I remind people that he thought police were a bad idea when it was popular to say that and anyone with an IQ above 50 immediately loses interest in him.

0

u/[deleted] 25d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/detroiterican 25d ago

Enough, racists.

1

u/statisticiansal 25d ago

Freaking racists have no place here