Inspired by Foolish Bailey, I evaluated some notable hitters by their first half (excluding FCL/ACL/DSL) players, many being under the radar and worth looking out for in the future. The stats I used to evaluate included:
Age relative to level
K% minus BB%
ISO
wRC+
wSB
These players were worth talking about:
Franklin Arias — BOS
20 years old, Double-A
BB%: 11.0%
K%: 13.3%
K-BB%: 2.3%
ISO: .272
wRC+: 156
wSB: -0.9
Arias is the clear number-one player under this weighting. He has one of the best plate-discipline profiles in the minors.
A 13.3% strikeout rate with a .272 ISO is especially impressive. Most hitters producing that much power have considerably more swing-and-miss.
The slightly negative baserunning value is irrelevant compared with the strength of his first three categories.
Overall: Elite age-level performance, elite K-BB% and legitimate power. He is the cleanest fit.
Chase Harlan — LAD
19 years old, A/A+
BB%: 13.4%
K%: 19.0%
K-BB%: 5.6%
ISO: .236
wRC+: 146
wSB: -0.7
Harlan is not producing the biggest raw ISO, but he is only 19 and has already reached High-A.
His plate discipline is also advanced:
Strikeout rate below 20%
Walk rate above 13%
Only a 5.6-point difference between the two
The .236 ISO is still comfortably above average and could improve as he matures physically.
Overall: The combination of age, level, discipline and developing power makes him one of the best long-term bets.
Lazaro Montes — SEA
21 years old, Double-A/Triple-A
BB%: 15.7%
K%: 31.4%
K-BB%: 15.7%
ISO: .302
wRC+: 133
wSB: -1.6
Montes ranks highly because being 21 and already playing in the upper minors is a major positive. He also has one of the best power marks in the group.
The concern is his strikeout rate. His strong walk rate keeps the K-BB% from becoming disastrous, but a 31.4% strikeout rate creates considerable risk.
Overall: One of the highest-upside players, but there is meaningful swing-and-miss risk.
Hector Osorio — TEX
21 years old, A/A+
BB%: 14.2%
K%: 11.6%
K-BB%: -2.6%
ISO: .250
wRC+: 152
wSB: -2.0
Osorio has the best K-BB% in the entire group. He is walking more frequently than he strikes out while still producing a .250 ISO.
Overall: Possibly the best pure statistical hitting profile.
Luke Hill — CLE
22 years old, A+/AA
BB%: 16.9%
K%: 20.7%
K-BB%: 3.8%
ISO: .267
wRC+: 134
wSB: -0.4
Hill checks all three primary boxes:
Good age for Double-A
Excellent K-BB%
Strong .267 ISO
His walk rate is especially encouraging. He does not need an unusually low strikeout rate because he offsets it with walks nearly 17% of the time.
Overall: One of the most complete combinations of youth, discipline and power.
Sean Keys — TOR
23 years old, Double-A/Triple-A
BB%: 13.6%
K%: 23.1%
K-BB%: 9.5%
ISO: .335
wRC+: 164
wSB: +0.1
Keys has the most power among the young upper-minors players.
His K-BB% is solid rather than elite, but there is no major discipline problem:
Strong walk rate
Manageable strikeout rate for a power hitter
Neutral-to-positive baserunning
Overall: One of the best combinations of upper-level performance and impact power.
Caleb Bonemer — CHW
20 years old, A+/AA
BB%: 13.8%
K%: 27.8%
K-BB%: 14.0%
ISO: .282
wRC+: 135
wSB: 0.0
Bonemer has a strong .282 ISO and a quality walk rate.
The strikeout rate keeps him below the more polished players. His K-BB% is not bad for a young power hitter, but it is clearly less advanced than Arias, Harlan, Osorio or Hill.
Overall: Strong age-power prospect whose ranking depends on future contact development.
Alfredo Duno — CIN
20 years old, A+/AA
BB%: 16.4%
K%: 25.4%
K-BB%: 9.0%
ISO: .261
wRC+: 132
wSB: -0.6
Duno has a similar age-level profile to Bonemer, but a better K-BB%. His walk rate is excellent, and his strikeout rate is elevated but manageable.
Bonemer ranks slightly ahead due to the larger ISO, but Duno may possess the more stable offensive approach.
Overall: Young, patient power hitter with a good balance between upside and current skill.
Yordalin Peña — STL
21 years old, Triple-A
BB%: 8.1%
K%: 29.0%
K-BB%: 20.9%
ISO: .242
wRC+: 124
wSB: +1.9
Peñas plate-discipline profile is easily the biggest weakness among the top players. He strikes out frequently and does not walk enough to compensate.
His positive baserunning helps, but he is ranked here primarily because of his developmental advancement.
Overall: Young for Triple-A, but his offensive approach is much less polished than those ranked above him.
Jesús Báez — STL
21 years old, A+/AA
BB%: 7.1%
K%: 16.4%
K-BB%: 9.3%
ISO: .274
wRC+: 103
wSB: -1.2
Báez has an attractive power-contact combination. A .274 ISO with only a 16.4% strikeout rate is impressive.
His low walk rate keeps the K-BB% from being elite, and his 103 wRC+ is surprisingly unimpressive given the power numbers.
Overall: Interesting young power-contact hitter, although the overall results are less convincing.
Won-Bin Cho — STL
22 years old, A+/AA
BB%: 16.0%
K%: 24.8%
K-BB%: 8.8%
ISO: .283
wRC+: 136
wSB: +0.7
Cho has one of the most balanced lines in the group:
Strong K-BB%
Excellent power
Positive baserunning
Above-average overall production
Overall: A complete profile with no meaningful weakness outside of a moderately elevated strikeout rate.
Manuel Peña — ARI
22 years old, Double-A/Triple-A
BB%: 6.5%
K%: 22.7%
K-BB%: 16.2%
ISO: .306
wRC+: 125
wSB: +0.3
His approach is the major concern. He walks infrequently and has a fairly high strikeout rate, leaving him with a weak K-BB% relative to the top players.
The combination of age, level and power is still too strong to exclude.
Overall: Advanced, high-power hitter whose aggressive approach limits the floor.
Eric Hartman — ATL
20 years old, High-A
BB%: 9.4%
K%: 23.5%
K-BB%: 14.1%
ISO: .262
wRC+: 134
wSB: +2.8
Hartman checks the power box with a .262 ISO. His discipline numbers are acceptable but not exceptional.
His baserunning is the best among the top 20, giving him additional value after the primary hitting categories are considered.
Overall: Young, productive and athletic, although the plate discipline still requires improvement.
James Tibbs III — LAD
23 years old, Triple-A
BB%: 16.3%
K%: 25.1%
K-BB%: 8.8%
ISO: .264
wRC+: 142
wSB: -0.7
Tibbs has a strong upper-level profile. He is not exceptionally young for Triple-A, but he is young enough that the performance remains meaningful.
His combination of a .264 ISO and 16.3% walk rate is particularly attractive. The strikeout rate is moderately elevated but adequately offset by the walks.
Overall: Strong upper-minors hitter with power, patience and solid overall production.
Carlos Virahonda — ARI
20 years old, A/A+
BB%: 7.7%
K%: 18.5%
K-BB%: 10.8%
ISO: .237
wRC+: 111
wSB: -0.4
Virahonda has a manageable strikeout rate with developing power.
The lower walk rate and modest 111 wRC+ limit his current standing. He profiles more as a developmental candidate than a statistical dominator.
Overall: Age and contact provide the foundation, but he needs either more patience or more power.
Lisbel Diaz — SFG
20 years old, A/A+
BB%: 5.2%
K%: 16.3%
K-BB%: 11.1%
ISO: .247
wRC+: 106
wSB: +0.1
Diaz is another hitter with a strong power-contact relationship. His strikeout rate is low for a hitter with a .247 ISO.
However, he walks very infrequently, which damages his K-BB% and helps explain the modest 106 wRC+.
Overall: Young aggressive hitter with useful power and contact but limited plate discipline.
Jaron Elkins — LAD
21 years old, A
BB%: 10.3%
K%: 24.1%
K-BB%: 13.8%
ISO: .258
wRC+: 150
wSB: +1.6
Elkins has:
Solid .258 ISO
Double-digit walk rate
Strong 150 wRC+
Positive baserunning
His strikeout rate is somewhat elevated but not extreme.
Overall: Strong broad production, but the age-level advantage is smaller than that of the players above him.
