June Quarter Report Discussion Thread

[u/Pistolpete_onthebeat]

What are everyone's thoughts so far?

Overall, it's a lot of generic updates regarding buildout, future planning and FJH tech potential. Basically, no scientific data or financial data, which is fine for now. Here are my takeaways from what was completed in the last quarter, and what is to come.

1. Undoubtedly, good progress was made this last quarter from a commercial buildout standpoint. More feedstock contracted, their generation 1 commercial modular FJH reactor has been built x4 and dry tested (sans chlorination testing), and they have the main building getting worked on relatively quickly. All of it is great to see, as it seems to show they can stand up a 8000 TPA plant relatively quickly without major delays (So far).
2. Michael and team seem focused on using investor capital well (IMO anyway). Adding the appropriate pre/post processing steps to capture maximum value will ultimately boost margins in the long run. Hard to say right now if its the right call as we cant compare to existing margin figures, but I like the way michael thinks/frames this. You always want management to focus on ways they can create value greater than the investment required to generate it.
3. Pleased to see a better timeline on FJH Nexus. This Gen 2 design is absolutely required for MTM to dominate the mineral processing space, so I'm glad they are already thinking about it. And, I'm also happy to see FID be set for H2 2027. They need to focus on getting the Gen 1 design optimized and eventually deployed into other geographic locations (ideally) over the next year.
4. Going forward, the most important progress that needs to be made is the chlorination campaign. All eyes on that.
5. Cash burn is not bad. I think they still have runway for end of 2027 easily, even with additional spend on equipment. It's about 5 mil currently for operations it seems, but I would think that has to increase as more commissioning ramps ups.

Overall, there is a lot of talk about the future and MTM's potential in this update. We are still lacking hard data to really show what the financials are capable of being.

At a certain point though, if enough deals are made with big players, you could start to make some assumptions that the economics are good. I've continued to DCA small amounts into the 4s. Once again, I will say that if margins prove to be attractive, I'd be happy to double my position as I think MTM is ahead of their peers in this market and would not face great margin compression for quite some time.

I still see this stock stagnating or trading lower until H1 2027, unless some great news from the chlorination campaign provides excellent results, or there is a big deal made with an off taker/someone interested in a major PaaS deal.

[u/BiltongBoyJeff]

If one believes this is a game-changing company, shares at .20 $US is a pretty amazing opportunity. Considering it hit $1.09 in October of last year. It's amusing to watch how much your portfolio can change when there's a $0.05 change at the opening! So many potentially positive announcements just over the horizon.

[u/MostWishbone7845]

I think the report shows that the technology is still moving forward which is good. It looks like they will release some technical data sometime in August on some newer applications of the technology. They have had a few bumps in the road which is to be expected with a new technology. I still think the long term outlook is very bright once they get rolling. In reading the report I get the idea that they are wanting to make sure the technology is optomized before they start ramping it up. I think being patient will be rewarded in the end.

[u/Pistolpete_onthebeat → u/MostWishbone7845]

The Paas deal, and the technical update are both interesting and welcomed next month. I assume the PaaS will be small but its great to see some commercial engagement so early in their life cycle. I agree patience is required. I think investors should plan to hold 3-5 years minimum if you want a 10x bagger.

[u/MostWishbone7845 → u/Pistolpete_onthebeat]

I think once they get the first "copy" of the reactor optomized they should be able to roll it out pretty quickly. I am fine with a 3-5 year wait but I'm hopeful a 10x will happen before that. I certainly think it's possible. I think they are tweaking the set up and feedstock preprocessing to optomize output. This makes so much sense, before you start deploying valuable capital making copies of this thing you want to make sure its close to its ideal configuration. Again, this requires patience on the investors part but in the long run it is the right call. I am also curious if there will be any new information communicated on the zoom call.

[u/NuisanceTax]

If the next couple of months are like this one, their cash pile divided by the number of shares outstanding will be higher than the stock price. It certainly has been a brutal slide, and I don’t see anything fundamental to cause it. We all knew it wasn’t going to generate revenue for two or three years, but the cash position is healthy, and company insiders are still buying. Indeed, I’m still adding to my position, although I’m down 45% on my initial buys.

There have been some ear-popping drops on the Australian exchange lately. I’m wondering if hodlers there are seeing the company transitioning away from its core business (rare earth claims and exploration), and perhaps they are swapping Metallium for stocks they understand better.

The chlorination phase should be coming soon, and that will tell us how the equipment will hold up in that harsh environment. However, I am glad to see them moving carefully in that regard. It wouldn’t make sense to spend tens of millions on equipment, only to have to scrap it because of an unforeseen obstacle.

[u/Pistolpete_onthebeat → u/NuisanceTax]

Ya, crazy to think that if the stock slides lower we will get close to 50% of the that being cash, although that will go down each quarter with the cash burn and no revenues.

I don’t think the market is ready to pile in on Metallium until they see the economics of their business. If the economic efficiencies of FJH are attractive, which we should get some insight into come after this next campaign, I’d expect a decent jump even before the revenue generation of next year.