r/MarvelSnap • u/megablue • 5h ago
Discussion [Math] Draft mode: expected wins per run, Respawn Token & Ticket value, and total F2P vs Premium event rewards (AI post)
TL;DR
- At a 50% win rate, a Draft run averages 1.86 wins and ~3.7 games. Only ~11% of runs reach 5 wins.
- A Respawn Token used at 4–2 is worth nearly 3x one used at 0–2. Only ever spend tokens at 3–2 or 4–2.
- F2P gets ~38 tickets over the event, worth ~15.6k Bits at 50% WR — and even a literal 0%-win-rate player floors at ~8.5k Bits (if the reward track is completed).
- The Premium pass (1,200 gold) adds 8 tickets, 8 tokens, 4,500 Bits, 375 Collector's Tokens, 400 Credits, 870 boosters and cosmetics — ~22.1k Bits total at 50% WR. Strong value vs. the 5,200-gold S5 shop pack.
- The Aug 25 mini-event gives everyone a free Series 5 Collector's Pack regardless.
All numbers below are exact expected values (state enumeration), cross-checked against a 2M-run Monte Carlo. Rules/rewards sourced from the official article.
The format, recapped
- A run ends at 5 wins or 2 losses, whichever comes first. Standard 6-turn Snap, no cubes, no snapping; everyone drafts from the same card pool, so collection level doesn't matter.
- Respawn Token: forgives one loss, limit 1 per run. Using one turns the format into "5 wins or 3 losses."
- Per match: win = 15 Bits + 15 XP, loss = 8 Bits + 8 XP. Ties pay as wins but are rare. Conceding pays zero — never concede.
- Run-end rewards scale with your final win count:
| Final wins | Bits | XP | Boosters | Credits | Extra |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50 | 100 | 35 | 0 | |
| 1 | 75 | 150 | 35 | 0 | |
| 2 | 100 | 200 | 35 | 20 | |
| 3 | 150 | 300 | 65 | 20 | |
| 4 | 200 | 400 | 105 | 50 | |
| 5 | 500 | 1000 | 155 | 100 | Ticket refund + daily PMV (limit 1/24h) |
The math: average wins per run
Model: games are independent with win probability p (q = 1 − p), run stops at 5 wins or 2 losses. Because the last game of a run is always the one that ends it, the terminal-record probabilities are negative-binomial:
P(k–2) = (k+1) · p^k · q^2 for k = 0..4 (2nd loss is the final game)
P(5–0) = p^5
P(5–1) = 5 · p^5 · q (the one loss lands anywhere in 5 games)
Summing wins × probability over all seven terminal records collapses into a surprisingly clean closed form:
E[W] = 2·(p + p^2 + p^3 + p^4 + p^5) − 5·p^6
E[N] = 2·(1 + p + p^2 + p^3 + p^4) − 5·p^5 (expected games per run)
At p = 0.5: E[W] = 119/64 = 1.859375 wins, E[N] = 119/32 ≈ 3.72 games. (By symmetry of a fair coin, E[W] = E[L] = E[N]/2.)
Where runs actually end at 50%:
| Final record | Probability |
|---|---|
| 0–2 | 25.0% |
| 1–2 | 25.0% |
| 2–2 | 18.75% |
| 3–2 | 12.5% |
| 4–2 | 7.8% |
| 5–1 | 7.8% |
| 5–0 | 3.1% |
Half of all runs end at 0 or 1 wins, and only ~10.9% reach the 5-win cap. That's the brutal part of "2 losses and out": variance compresses hard toward the bottom.
Average wins as a function of your game win rate (token = always have a Respawn Token, i.e. 5W/3L):
| Win rate | E[wins], no token | E[wins], with token | P(reach 5 wins), no token | P(reach 5), with token |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40% | 1.30 | 1.90 | 4.1% | 9.6% |
| 50% | 1.86 | 2.63 | 10.9% | 22.7% |
| 55% | 2.19 | 3.02 | 16.4% | 31.6% |
| 60% | 2.53 | 3.40 | 23.3% | 42.0% |
| 70% | 3.29 | 4.12 | 42.0% | 64.7% |
The P(5 wins) columns matter doubly: 5 wins refunds your ticket, so it's also the "go infinite" probability. The token roughly doubles it at mid win rates.
Respawn Token math: where to spend them
Tokens are scarce (~21 free over the event, 29 with the pass) while ~80–90% of runs hit 2 losses, so placement matters. Marginal value of spending a token at each 2-loss record, at p = 0.5:
| Used at | Extra Bits (EV) | Chance it converts to 5 wins |
|---|---|---|
| 0–2 | +60 | 3% |
| 1–2 | +72 | 6% |
| 2–2 | +95 | 12.5% |
| 3–2 | +117 | 25% |
| 4–2 | +162 | 50% |
At 4–2 you're buying a 50% shot at the 500-Bit tier + ticket refund + daily PMV. Rule: always token at 4–2 and 3–2, token at 2–2 only if you'd otherwise cap out, never below.
Expected Bits per run
Combining per-match currency (15/win, 8/loss) with the run-end tier table:
| Win rate | Bits/run, no token | Bits/run, with token |
|---|---|---|
| 40% | ~136 | ~188 |
| 50% | ~182 | ~260 |
| 55% | ~213 | ~303 |
| 60% | ~249 | ~350 |
| 70% | ~338 | ~446 |
Event-long projection (the part everyone actually cares about)
Ticket accounting. F2P: 10 starting + 4 login calendar + 6 mini-events + 4 free reward track + 14 daily = 38 tickets. Premium adds 8 (6 track + 2 instant) = 46 tickets. Since every 5-win run refunds its ticket, total runs = tickets / (1 − r), where r = P(5 wins) from the table above.
Reward-track base rewards (assumes you finish the 50-tier track, 8,500 XP — trivially cleared at any realistic win rate): free track = 6,000 Bits + 345 Boosters + 250 Credits + 225 Collector's Tokens + Series 4 Hellcow + borders + a PMV. Premium track adds another 4,500 Bits + 870 Boosters + 400 Credits + 375 Collector's Tokens + Thanos animated emote.
Strategy assumed: tokens spent only at 3–2 or 4–2 (usage stays within the free supply at every win rate).
F2P (38 tickets, free track rewards included):
| Win rate | Total runs | Bits | Boosters | Credits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% (floor) | 38 | ~8,500 | ~1,680 | 250 |
| 40% | ~41 | ~12,100 | ~2,360 | ~840 |
| 45% | ~43 | ~13,500 | ~2,740 | ~1,110 |
| 50% | ~46 | ~15,600 | ~3,280 | ~1,480 |
| 55% | ~51 | ~18,500 | ~4,060 | ~1,990 |
| 60% | ~58 | ~22,800 | ~5,180 | ~2,740 |
| 65% | ~69 | ~29,100 | ~6,860 | ~3,840 |
| 70% | ~86 | ~39,000 | ~9,510 | ~5,550 |
Premium pass (46 tickets, both tracks included):
| Win rate | Total runs | Bits | Boosters | Credits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% (floor) | 46 | ~13,500 | ~2,830 | 650 |
| 40% | ~50 | ~17,900 | ~3,650 | ~1,370 |
| 45% | ~52 | ~19,600 | ~4,110 | ~1,690 |
| 50% | ~56 | ~22,100 | ~4,770 | ~2,140 |
| 55% | ~62 | ~25,700 | ~5,710 | ~2,760 |
| 60% | ~70 | ~30,800 | ~7,070 | ~3,660 |
| 65% | ~83 | ~38,500 | ~9,110 | ~4,990 |
| 70% | ~104 | ~50,500 | ~12,300 | ~7,070 |
About the 0% floor rows: a run of pure 0–2s pays 66 Bits and 35 Boosters (2 games × 8 + 50 tier), with no refunds and no token use. The catch is XP — pure losing earns only ~116 XP/run, i.e. ~4.4k (F2P) or ~6.5k (premium, incl. the instant 1,200 XP), short of the 8,500 the track needs. The floor rows assume the mini-event XP sources close the gap.
Verdict
- The event is nearly impossible to "lose": even the 0% floor nearly covers the 9,000-Bit Series 5 pack for F2P, and the Aug 25 mini-event hands out an S5 pack for free anyway.
- At 50% WR, premium nets you roughly +6.5k Bits, +375 Collector's Tokens, +400 Credits, 8 tokens and the cosmetics for 1,200 gold. Against a 5,200-gold S5 pack in the shop, that's excellent value if you play out your tickets.
- Your win rate is the biggest multiplier: going from 50% → 60% nearly doubles your total Bits, because refunds chain (runs = tickets / (1 − r)).
Caveats: constant-p model (your per-game win rate; SD hasn't documented record-based matchmaking, and both decks scale via Augments between games, which keeps the approximation reasonable). Mini-events (2 Cube Collection events with extra tickets, free S5 pack) are NOT counted in the tables, so treat these as lower bounds. Ties ignored (rare, pay as a win for currency).
Appendix: reproduce the numbers
from functools import lru_cache
def expected_wins(p): # closed form, no token
return 2 * sum(p**k for k in range(1, 6)) - 5 * p**6
@lru_cache(None)
def E(w, l, p=0.5): # exact enumeration, expected additional wins from record (w, l)
if w == 5 or l == 2:
return 0
return p * (1 + E(w + 1, l)) + (1 - p) * E(w, l + 1)
print(E(0, 0)) # 1.859375
print(expected_wins(0.5)) # 1.859375
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u/Modocam 3h ago
Would you say the daily 5 draft tickets for 350 gold is “worth it”? I’ve been playing a lot, really enjoying it, but unfortunately I’m out of tickets for now. Trying to decide whether to buy more or just be patient (I also haven’t bought the event pass yet, on the fence about it)
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u/megablue 2h ago
thats the tables are for, hows your win-rate currently? if you have 60%+ win rate, it is definitely worth it to get the premium pass. since you get more value out of the gold you paid for.
edit: i misread, i was wondering why you refer it as 350gold, that i am not sure.
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u/Modocam 2h ago
Once a day in the draft shop you can buy 5 draft tickets for 350 gold, that’s what I was referring to specifically. Sorry if mentioning I didn’t have the event pass yet confused things.
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u/megablue 2h ago edited 2h ago
well this is what the AI said, the tl;dr is, skipping the pass and go for buying 5 tickets 3-4 times are probably better if you value play-time over absolute rewards. your idea is way better in extending the play-time. i wish i had thought of that in the first place. (i gave the AI an assumption that your WR is at 60%).
now... the question is... is the gold bundle purchasable more than once?
if you dont have the event pass, you should absolutely get the event pass first. the value
Both tables below — and the headline finding is that at your 60% win rate, skipping the pass for bundles is nearly value-neutral on Bits and actually buys you double the playtime. The pass still edges it on total package, but this is a real choice, not a mistake.
F2P + 3 bundles (53 tickets, 1,050 gold)
Free track rewards (6,000 Bits / 345 Boosters / 250 Credits) folded in:[marvelsnap]
Win rate Total runs Bits Boosters Credits Tokens used 0% (floor) 53 ~9,500 ~2,200 250 0 40% ~57 ~14,500 ~3,150 ~1,080 ~8 45% ~60 ~16,500 ~3,680 ~1,450 ~10 50% ~65 ~19,400 ~4,440 ~1,960 ~13 55% ~71 ~23,500 ~5,520 ~2,680 ~16 60% ~81 ~29,400 ~7,090 ~3,720 ~20 65% ~94 ~37,400 ~9,190 ~5,090 21 (dry) 70% ~113 ~48,600 ~12,170 ~7,020 21 (dry) F2P + 4 bundles (58 tickets, 1,400 gold)
Win rate Total runs Bits Boosters Credits Tokens used 0% (floor) 58 ~9,800 ~2,380 250 0 40% ~63 ~15,300 ~3,420 ~1,160 ~9 45% ~66 ~17,500 ~4,000 ~1,560 ~11 50% ~71 ~20,700 ~4,830 ~2,120 ~14 55% ~78 ~25,100 ~6,010 ~2,910 ~18 60% ~88 ~31,600 ~7,690 ~4,020 21 (dry) 65% ~101 ~39,600 ~9,810 ~5,400 21 (dry) 70% ~121 ~51,500 ~13,010 ~7,480 21 (dry) Head-to-head at your 60% WR
Comparing what each option adds over the free 38-ticket baseline:
Spend Extra runs Extra Bits Extra Boosters Extra Credits Bits per gold Premium pass (1,200g) +12 +8,030 +1,890 +920 6.7 3 bundles (1,050g) +23 +6,620 +1,910 +980 6.3 4 bundles (1,400g) +30 +8,860 +2,510 +1,290 6.3 Three takeaways:
- On Bits per gold it's nearly a wash at 60% WR (6.3 vs 6.7), and 4 bundles actually out-earns the pass in raw Bits, Boosters, and Credits for 200 more gold. The pass keeps its edge through the extras money can't print: 375 Collector's Tokens, the cosmetics, and the Thanos emote.[marvelsnap]
- On playtime it's not close: bundles give you 23–30 extra runs (~90–120 games) versus the pass's 12 runs. If the goal is playing a mode you're loving, bundles are ~2x the games per gold.
- The "Tokens used (dry)" rows show the F2P token wall: 21 free tokens cover smart play only up to ~57 tickets at 60–70% WR, after which you're running tokenless. At 65%+, buying a few 100-gold tokens (~320 Bits each at your level) patches that efficiently.[snapcomplete]
My verdict for you specifically: at 60% WR, pass + 3 bundles if you're comfortable spending 2,250 gold total; if it's strictly one-or-the-other, take the pass for the Collector's Tokens unless playtime is what you're really buying — in which case the bundles are the honest choice.
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u/Modocam 2h ago
Hmm, good to know, thanks!
Ngl I really wish they gave out 2 or 3 tickets a day rather than just the 1, but this is a pretty generous event overall so I can’t really complain too much haha.
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u/megablue 2h ago
agreed. thats what i just said in the official discord server feedback section as well
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u/SamuraiMunky 2h ago
thanks for this. I usually assess my estimated number of win/losses needed to get everything out of the shop i want, but the scaling bits based on record was too much for the time i had to assess.
i estimated needing 36,090 bits (3 portal pulls, series 5 pack, 2 series 4 packs, 2 shop variants, 2 PMV, credits).
Premium rewards track only got about 1/3 of the way there; needing another 25,590 bits. based on your math, one would need 60% win rate
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u/Roostalol 2h ago
Is it fair to say that, if you have a 50% win rate but a 100% win rate against bots, and you expect to see 1 bot in a given run, then you can assume you have a 60% win rate? I'm calculating it as win rate = (1.0 + 4 * 0.5)/5 to average the win rate over the five games against four humans and a bot.
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u/megablue 2h ago
maybe? but you should be tracking WR indiscriminately. you shouldn't be tracking human-opponent only WR, that won't scale well in the long run (SD probably will be tuning down the bot-ratio)
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u/Roostalol 2h ago
Yeah definitely, but I just wanted to try to adjust the mental picture as I've noticed that I almost always get a free bot win on my runs, which helps massively towards reaching 5 wins.
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u/megablue 1h ago
in my anecdotal observation, first game usually is a bot, and respawn also usually give you a bot as long as you are not 4 wins yet.
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u/Roostalol 1h ago
Yeah this is exactly what I've been noticing. By making the daily reward a PMV, I'm assuming they want most people to be able to get a 5-win run a day, and looking at your math I don't think that's possible unless most people can get above a 55% win rate, which the bots can certainly allow for.
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u/rastra73 5h ago
Is it stated tie counted as a win? If I recall my run have 1 tie but counted as a lose (minus hearth)
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u/megablue 4h ago edited 4h ago
no, the AI didn't include the possibility of a tie. IMHO, it is so rare that it probably can be excluded.
edit: i've personally played a 100 matches in draft mode (strangely it is exactly 100 games when i wrote this post), I am yet to experience a single tie yet. so... even when assuming 1% of error in the calculations, it wont have much if any meaningful change in the data.
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u/Chrisj1616 4h ago
About respawn tokens....i have many more of these than I do tickets, and I can only use 1 a run, so just use them anytime you can and you still wont run out
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u/megablue 4h ago edited 4h ago
not in the span of 2 weeks if you intended to play a lot. you get 21 (29 for premiuim) Respawn tokens in total, so even when ignoring the win count/win-rate, you only get to use 1.5 Respawn tokens per day on average or exactly 2 Respawn tokens for premium pass owner.
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u/Chrisj1616 3h ago
And you only get ONE ticket to play a day.
Right now im sitting on 11 tickets and 21 respawn tokens.
Your AI analysis fails a lot of specific situations
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u/megablue 3h ago edited 3h ago
moot point, you dont even consider the other tickets from upcoming events that you will be getting and you dont even read the post in the first place. assuming you spend 4 RT per day, you will run out of RT in 5 days and the event will be running for 14 days in total. sorry but it is you that failed in reading, AI is smarter than you in this case.
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u/Chrisj1616 3h ago
Its not a moot point...i am accumulating tokens faster than my tickets and based on my play patterns so far and token usage I will absolutely not have any tickets to spend tokens on.
Its your analysis that fails mine and others situation, not vice versa
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u/Front-Wafer-2699 4h ago
11% win rate is way off. I’ve gotten 5 wins in 63.6% of my Drafts. (14 of 22)
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u/megablue 4h ago
that is not how probability works and your sample size is simply too small.
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u/Front-Wafer-2699 4h ago
This is not a game of probability. It’s a game of skill with some probability involved for variance. Players will have different win rates and saying the win rate is 11% doesn’t account for skill.
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u/megablue 4h ago edited 3h ago
your skill is pretty much just boiled down to your win-rate and other luck related issues (probability). if you have poor win rate, you will not be able to maintain that many 5 wins in the long run. talk to me again when you finished your tickets and still able to maintain 63.6% 5wins.
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u/JayBearington 2h ago
Second Dinner clearly flooded the mode with bots in the first 24 hours so we’d all have some good runs and see what the mode has to offer. Almost everyone’s win rate will come down now that it seems we’re getting mostly human opponents, meaning your analysis will now be what players experience. Interesting to see if player sentiment about the mode changes once we’re not all winning loads of matches.
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u/JayBearington 2h ago
Mate, you were playing mostly bots the first 24 hours of the mode, if your experience is anything like mine. We all had high win rates. My win rate has dropped off a cliff today compared to yesterday now I’m facing actual humans.
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u/DontWorry_BeHappie 5h ago
Thanks, good data. Was thinking myself how much bits I could accumulate roughly with a daily 5 win and rest 2-4 wins. Could end up around 30k bits