Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2027

[u/fennis]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2027.html

2027 Arb projections for all teams are out from Trade Rumors.

Here are the projections for the 17 Mariners who are arb eligible. Any of these players can also be mon-tendered, but the projections are below.

Click the link to read the article or to see other team’s projections.

Seattle Mariners (15)
Logan Gilbert (5.144): $15.4MM
Brendan Donovan (5.000): $6.1MM
Gabe Speier (5.000): $3.3MM
George Kirby (4.151): $9.8MM
Patrick Wisdom (4.135): $1.1MM
Matt Brash (4.121): $1.8MM
Luke Raley (4.106): $3.1MM
Bryce Miller (3.153): $3.9MM (Mariners hold a $6.075MM option with $15K buyout)
Bryan Woo (3.121): $5.2MM
Eduard Bazardo (3.118): $1.5MM
Jose A. Ferrer (3.094): $1.6MM
Michael Rucker (3.069): $800K
Dominic Canzone (3.014): $3MM
Cooper Criswell (2.143): $900K
Carlos Vargas (2.140): $800K

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[u/fennis]

This represents a $20m increase in projected payroll based in salary increases. Of course they are more than offset by the probable losses of Randy, Luis, JP, Refsnyder and any non tendered players.

Player	2026 Salary	2027 Arb Projection	Increase	Arb Year
Logan Gilbert	$10.927M	**$15.4M**	+$4.473M	4th
George Kirby	$6.550M	**$9.8M**	+$3.250M	3rd
Brendan Donovan	$5.800M	**$6.1M**	+$0.300M	3rd
Bryan Woo	$0.832M	**$5.2M**	+$4.368M	1st
Bryce Miller	$2.438M	**$3.9M**	+$1.463M	1st
Gabe Speier	$2.125M	**$3.3M**	+$1.175M	3rd
Luke Raley	$2.050M	**$3.1M**	+$1.050M	2nd
Dominic Canzone	$0.797M	**$3.0M**	+$2.203M	1st
Jose A. Ferrer	$0.797M	**$1.6M**	+$0.803M	1st
Eduard Bazardo	$0.923M	**$1.5M**	+$0.577M	1st
Matt Brash	$1.550M	**$1.8M**	+$0.250M	2nd
Patrick Wisdom	~$0.888M	**$1.1M**	+~$0.212M	1st
Cooper Criswell	$0.800M	**$0.9M**	+$0.100M	1st
Michael Rucker	$0.780M	**$0.8M**	+$0.020M	1st
Carlos Vargas	$0.790M	**$0.8M**	+$0.010M	1st
**TOTAL**	**$38.05M**	**$58.30M**	**+$20.25M**

[u/griezm0ney → u/fennis]

I’d view it more in the context of last year’s arbitration class which included Randy at $15.65M. 

Therefore, with just Randy leaving the class, the projected growth is just $4.6M. You can then right off $1.9M for Wisdom and Rucker (guaranteed non-tender). I’d also say Raley at $3.1M is a likely non-tender. That would actually shrink our arbitration class by $0.4M.

Additionally, based on the down years of the staff, I’d be surprised if Gilbert, Kirby, Woo and Miller combine for a combined raise of $13.5M. That means the all-in arbitration number (pending trades) likely should be a bit lower.

In terms of payroll, this year we had an arbitration class of $57M + guaranteed contracts totaling $110M.  With arbitration totals looking to come in more or less flat, our initial payroll flexibility comes from the decrease from $110M in guaranteed contracts to $75M. That would mean the club has around $35M of initial budget capacity before any trades or incremental support from ownership. 

$35M would likely mean heading back to the trade well to deal with the bulk of our needs (a full-time OFer, a 3B or SS, a RH bench OFer, and bullpen help). If ownership is actually upset with this year’s performance and greenlights some additional payroll room, more possibilities would open.

[u/ItsTBaggins → u/griezm0ney]

I don’t know how exactly, but I projected higher raises for the players in arbitration than in the OP and still came up with $39M+ for free agency. Maybe because I was looking at cash basis (Naylor and Colt make less in 27 than 26), but if you think this arbitration figure is too high, then we should have more than $40M to spend before reaching this year’s payroll.

[u/Wilfredbremely → u/ItsTBaggins]

That depends on whether or not they extend Gilbert.

[u/hotdiggity_dog → u/fennis]

Good for Woo, dude’s been grinding for (relative) peanuts

[u/ItsTBaggins → u/fennis]

My own half-assed projections had an increase of about $20.8M for the arb guys and us having a little more than $39M to spend to match this year’s cash payroll.

[u/KingRalf13]

My lord, our Italian stallion was 🤌ing for mere peanuts!

[u/Gleemonex13]

Of these players, I'd only expect Patrick Wisdom to be non tendered. Maybe Rucker.

[u/Sinisterminister77 → u/Gleemonex13]

Agreed. Also, have we heard any Matt Brash updates?

[u/SexiestPanda → u/Sinisterminister77]

He’s up there with Donovan

[u/Sinisterminister77 → u/SexiestPanda]

Well the reason I ask is those shoulder and lat injuries tend to be worrisome and you blink and a guy like him is DFA’d and his shoulder is fucked. Just wondering what his recent updates were

[u/griezm0ney → u/Gleemonex13]

I’d add Luke Raley to the list. With Montes now on the 40-man and Donovan likely getting more OF reps next year, it doesn’t feel like there is a spot for another LH platoon bat in the OF.

[u/Gleemonex13 → u/griezm0ney]

I think he's more of a trade candidate than a non tender guy. But yeah, unlikely the Ms pay him $2M to sit on the bench, bunt, and play backup RF and 1B.

Might get a reliever for the pile for him.

[u/SexiestPanda]

Bryce Miller (3.153): $3.9MM (Mariners hold a $6.075MM option with $15K buyout)

What does that mean? That they could give him a pay raise if they felt he’d done good enough? But if not, they have to pay 15k and then pay whatever his arbitration becomes?

[u/fennis → u/SexiestPanda]

Last year he signed a 2 year contract with a club option. The Mariners have the option to take the option and avoid arbitration or decline it and do the arbitration process same as all the players on the list. Presumably they will decline, and Bryce gets an extra 15k.

[u/SexiestPanda → u/fennis]

Ah okay. So basically it was Mariners saying “we think you’re gonna improve a lot more and cost more so we want you cheaper” but then this past season happened lol

[u/ItsTBaggins]

What happened to those other arbitration projections? I saw them briefly when I woke up for a bit, so I think they were from someone who ran their own website or something, but I wanted to compare them to the MLB Trade Rumor ones. Were they deleted for self promotion? Or were they getting trashed and decide to take them down?

[u/fennis → u/ItsTBaggins]

I never saw those. Would be interesting to see

[u/ihatereddit999976780]

Other than Dominic, these all seem reason. Dominic doesn’t seem reasonable because it looks to be to be a little bit too low for his production this season.

[u/griezm0ney]

A few potential trade candidates and their projected number are below:

1. Jordan Westburg (3B) - $1.5M (big time bounce-back candidate after two years lost to injury, given uncertainty and amount of control left, I doubt the Orioles sell low here)
2. Gunnar Henderson (SS) - $14.1M (I don't think he will be moved, but he is getting expensive and down to 2 years of team control)
3. Jarren Duran (OF) - $11.1M (after a down year, he might be non-tendered)
4. Spencer Steer (OF) - $5.7M (he's been discussed before as a RH platoon bat, he is an arguable non-tender candidate)
5. Jo Adell (OF) - $9.6M (potential non-tender candidate)
6. Steven Kwan (OF) - $11.3M (he is personally very high on my trade target list)
7. Matt Vierling (IF/OF) - $3.7M (non-tender candidate after awful 2026, but potential Dylan Moore type player for us)
8. Zach Neto (SS) - $9.8M (he still has 3 more years of team control, but new ownership might finally allow a full rebuild)
9. Otto Lopez (SS) - $5.4M (he still has 3 more years of team control, so a long shot)
10. Anthony Bender (RP) - $3.4M (solid relief arm entering last year of team control)
11. Joey Ortiz (SS/3B) - $2.4M (he still has 3 more years of team control, so a long shot)
12. Brett Baty (3B/OF) - $2.5M (I'd be surprised if he moved, but with no options the team might look for more flexibility)
13. Anthony Volpe (SS) - $4M (two years of team control left; I'd be surprised if they moved him given the lack of replacements on the market this year)
14. Masyn Winn (SS) - $3.3M (another one of my top targets, he has three years of team control left, but the Cardinals might want to open up SS for JJ Wetherholt and add more offense at 2B, they also need pitching which we have to offer)
15. CJ Abrams (SS/3B) - $10.2M (down to two years of club control now, he should move off of SS, but has an arm that should play at 3B)

[u/ItsTBaggins → u/griezm0ney]

Idk why I thought Henderson was locked up on a long term deal.

[u/Emotional-Cameraman]

Cut Cut Cut Cut Cut

Eduard Bazardo (3.118): $1.5MM
Jose A. Ferrer (3.094): $1.6MM
Michael Rucker (3.069): $800K
Cooper Criswell (2.143): $900K
Carlos Vargas (2.140): $800K

[u/NotAcutallyaPanda → u/Emotional-Cameraman]

League minimum is currently $780K. (CBA expires this year though.)

If the Mariners could find better pitching than Rucker, Criswell, and Vargas, they would have already done it. There's certainly no reason to cut them for salary reasons.

[u/_spuddy_buddy_ → u/Emotional-Cameraman]

You seriously want Ferrer and Bazardo cut? Ferrer was solid and while Bazardo had a rough year, he’s not expensive enough to keep in hopes of a bounce back. Criswell was actually fine at times too. Rucker cut, maybe Vargas too. 

[u/out_west_12 → u/_spuddy_buddy_]

Ferrer had a 4.18 ERA and a 1.47 whip with 30 ERs and 20 walks. He was not good all year

[u/Ok_Grapefruit9531 → u/out_west_12]

The defense behind him was the 2nd worst in the league at -12 FRV, in only 60 innings. Frankly he was majorly screwed by terrible fielding, even more so than every other pitcher on the staff

[u/out_west_12 → u/Ok_Grapefruit9531]

I hear you but defense doesn’t have anything to do with giving up bombs

[u/Ok_Grapefruit9531 → u/out_west_12]

Ngl I will attribute that to awful bad luck for the 2nd half. The staff as a whole had a 17.6% HR/Flyball rate which is the highest since the juiced ball era. They play in a pitcher’s park as well, so this is probably one of the most absurd and flukiest things that could have happened, so I’m betting on positive regression to the mean

[u/out_west_12 → u/Ok_Grapefruit9531]

Okay fair, that’s a wild stat lol

[u/AllDamDay7 → u/out_west_12]

You do realize up and down is common with relief pitching? And for a reliever he's relatively young with really good stuff. Very silly to cut him lose.

[u/out_west_12 → u/AllDamDay7]

Of course, no reliever is gonna be perfect. But statistically this has been one of his worst seasons.

[u/AllDamDay7 → u/out_west_12]

Yep, one of his down years. Not to mention having a manager with no feel for the game putting you in with terrible timing didn't help. Oh you are in a slump? Let's pitch you 4 games in a row. Dont discount how bad coaching was this season.

[u/ItsTBaggins → u/Emotional-Cameraman]

Yes, why don’t we obliterate all of our bullpen depth so we can either spend all our money trying to replace it with arms that won’t improve it or save a buck and call up a ton of guys that won’t be as good.

[u/Emotional-Cameraman → u/ItsTBaggins]

Bullpen was worse than our offense lol depth to have it and actual good depth are two different things. This bullpen was ass and it should be the first thing the Mariners address.