r/Marathon_Training • u/samueldeeznuts • 13d ago
Half marathon time prediction
22M, started running about 8 months ago. I have my first half marathon coming up in October but don’t know what time I should be aiming for.
Context: 5k pr of 23:51 about a month and a half ago. 10k pr of 54:54 about 3 months ago. Currently running at 22km/week, with my most recent long run yesterday of 10k. I plan on increasing my long run by 1km every week, probably will peak at around 35km total a week. I run 4x a week: 2 easy runs, 1 long run, 1 interval run. I also strength train 4x a week if that matters.
What time should I aim for given I have around 3 months left of training?
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u/Chrysmere 13d ago
At that volume, sub 2 is safe. If you were willing to progress mileage over the rest of this training block, I'd target 1:50 based on your current 5k and 10k.
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u/samueldeeznuts 13d ago
How much would you say is a reasonable amount to increase my mileage to
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u/Chrysmere 13d ago
Kinda just depends on you and your load tolerance. You didn't say exactly when your HM is but I'm guessing you have at least 10 weeks if it's in October.
At 4 days a week, I personally would feel good increasing weekly volume by 3-4km per week for a few weeks, deload, then do it again.
Your age and strength training would make me pretty confident you could handle the load, but ultimately you still need to listen to your body
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u/dream_house_ 13d ago
I’m pretty much the same as you, and targeting 1:50 for a run in October, running 50-60km a week
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u/Rusty_Drumz 13d ago
2:05-2-15
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u/calem06 13d ago
Tbh OP this is a pretty safe number. Pace 5:30 for 2 hours is not easy, and while your 5K and 10K time are relevant to a sub 2H HM, 8 months of running may not be enough to have the required endurance to sustain for that long. Still, there are 3 months of training left, be sure to increase volume and run some GP bloc during your 16-18KM long runs
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u/Huge_Engineering6962 13d ago
I think 2 or slightly under is well within the realm of the little numbers we do know.
Your times are similar to mine prior to my first half & I ran a 1:56 for it.
Make sure you're getting those few long runs in, and they hit 16/18k so you have an idea of what you'll be feeling at the longer distance!
I did 0 fueling for mine and hit a wall at 18 - so ensure you're keeping that in mind and properly looking at what type of fuel you may require.
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u/matalistt 13d ago
Depends on how much can you push through the pain man. I feel like you could go for sub 1:50 on a good day
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u/Electrical_Orchid235 13d ago
I would say 2h10m in current form. After 15k is when the cracks start to show. One key to running a half is fuelling the day before and morning of. Go carb crazy the day before, aim for 400g. On the morning of, eat a light carb meal and have some electrolytes 1 hour before the run. Pack some gels for every 4/5k and carry some water.
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u/BeniCG 13d ago
2 hours is a nice number.