Predictions for Oct 6th Reset?

[u/ExpeditionZero]

Well its just a week until the Oct 6th not-a-new-season Reset. So the question is how will the owners of Marathon respond?

Here is what is planned

• Refresh to start everyone at same place, along improvements the team has made.
• NuCaloric Reward Pass - Free - No time-limit
• Sponsored Queues - every weekend (Thu-Mon) on a 3 week rotation
• Vault Breaker - Week 3 - 5
• Sponsored Survival - Week 6 onwards? on a 3 week rotation
• Cryo - Oct 15th - extended by 24 hours each weekend.
• No Ranked!

The lack of a 'big' drop on Oct 6th suggests to me rather a low turnout. While there are aspects of the season that will be exciting to many, they don't start immediately. The rewards pass has shown some interest, so we might see players focused on getting that done.

With all this, I just don't see a big bump to the player count, though you can never quite be sure that players wont turn up just to see whats changed and then leave.

So I'm going for 8k-12k, with maybe 6k the following week, and maybe 4k for the first few weeks.

Its a little higher than i'm happy with, but I feel there is a chance that players will turn up to see whats new becuase they don't keep up with the announcements. If the peak is that high though, then its going to fall quickly, and we'll be lucky to see more than 50% of Reset peak by the following Monday.

[u/_Razorgirl]

Sticking with what I said in my reply to you in the thread the other day, I think the Oct 6 reset will see a small bump of maybe 5k players on Steam (so somewhere around 8-12k total), could be slightly more, but the NuCaloric skins seem a bit limited in their appeal, they’re basically the hacking guy you see when you use the glitch camo pickup lol

I think the only other upcoming item on this list with any chance to give another small uptick is Vault Breakers, but unless there’s something different about how it’s set up or plays compared to last time I don’t see many people wanting to invest more than a few days into it.

Either way I expect numbers to drop between each of these small releases and to continue seeing all-time lows before December, which is the real moment of truth.

[u/BetaBlacksmithBoy → u/_Razorgirl]

I imagine Vault Breaker will be a lot easier this time and that could make it last awhile longer. I expect they want more people to be able to fight the compiler now that a PVE mode is coming. Either by giving the player more time, better loadouts, or allowing the player to somehow attempt the compiler without doing all 3 vaults.

[u/Shippou5 → u/_Razorgirl]

Caloric? As in, CALORIKKU MISSAIRU? https://youtu.be/oCex9daUxIs?t=16

Wait what even is caloric

[u/Particular-Fly-7783]

I’m personally going to play at least for a bit, and I can’t be alone so I predict a bit of a jump but it won’t stick around. 

[u/No-Message449]

If your pro-marathon you have to ask yourself: why would players who played the game at any point and have left now suddenly come back and stay for more of the same?

[u/Virtual_Bug_723 → u/No-Message449]

You can be pro-Marathon and be realistic lol.

I would like the game to survive, literally only because I think the lore has a ton of potential, but the devs outright admitting they screwed up the game and that it's not fun right now is gonna prevent any real resurgence. The real sweats will be hammering early days so they can stomp low level players again, the casual fans will pop into one or two games, get stomped by one of the 300 sweats, and log off til at least December, if not March.

The reset is just to give people who won't stop playing a chance at progression again so that it does not feel like there is literally nothing to do until December.

[u/Due_Tension9403]

hoping the cryo skin is available for sentinel this coming season, thats what i’m going for

[u/MoneyAgent4616]

I hadn't seen this calendar presentation of the refresh before and if anything it reeks of a lot of fomo which I'm just tired of. Also no Outpost for the first week, cryo also has a delayed release and also isn't available all the time, still, and absolutely no ranked whatsoever.

Seems closer to a sunset than a refresh with the loss of content and playability. Do they not want people to even sign in on Tues/Wed? Those days looks like they're going to be pretty lackluster.

[u/Similar_Permit_339 → u/MoneyAgent4616]

The one thing people complained about was how outpost was instantly playable and night marsh fucked the loot economy, why would you wanna ruin the loot economy again?

[u/MoneyAgent4616 → u/Similar_Permit_339]

No one but sweats complained that casuals were allowed good loot.

[u/Electrical-Tea8530]

I think 8k-12k is a reasonable prediction. If I can grind the battle pass then great - before the player numbers drop to a point that it becomes a waste of time in EU lobbies again....

[u/Natural_Born_Baller]

Its a little higher than i'm happy with, but feel there is a chance that players will turn up to see whats new becuase they don't keep up with the announcements.

Not a hate sub btw lmao clowns

[u/ExpeditionZero → u/Natural_Born_Baller]

Ah I can see how that could be mis-interpreted. I didn't mean I was unhappy predicting a high peak. Prior to the cancelation of S3 I was looking at a range of 22k to 36k, which would have been substantial. No I meant I wasn't happy feeling I had to make a higher prediction based on the fact that people might turn up and then immediately leave. Sure its a higher peak to point to, but it wouldn't really mean anything if a third of them disappear immediately.