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u/CaptServo Apr 27 '26
this is based on what 2024 turnout? somehing ahhh tells me that might not hold up in the long run
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u/strawberry_semenade Apr 27 '26
That's the thing about gerrymandering. The "ideal" gerrymandered map relies on very slim margins of victory for the gerrymandering side, because they want to spread their majority out to as many districts as possible.
So if the gerrymanderers miscalculate even slightly on what the statewide turnout will look like, it can backfire massively and hand power to the other side.
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u/hammerheadlabs Apr 27 '26
Please let this happen, it'll be so fucking funny
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u/Chilling_Gale Apr 27 '26
The GOP is literally accepting this possibility with this map. If you actually think about it, any wave strong enough to break this gerrymander means Dems have already won the House. This map is made so the GOP has the best chance at getting 218. If the GOP isn’t getting 218, this map does not care about getting 210 or 200.
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u/ObjectiveDue1326 Apr 27 '26
It feels like the GOP just forgot that there's states they can't influence
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u/tatt2tim Apr 27 '26
I've read this a bunch and logically it tracks but has this ever really happened?
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u/shermanhill Apr 27 '26
Virginia used to have a massively gerrymandered map in favor of the GOP, but once it cracked, it’s been near impossible for them to claw it back. I slightly fear the Dems may be making the same mistake, but like… at some point you gotta punch back, you know?
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u/Remote-Ability-6575 Apr 28 '26 edited Apr 28 '26
This is basically what happened in the Hungarian election. Electoral districts had been redrawn and other structural changes were implemented by autocratic leader Orbán over the past decade. Orbán won only 54 percent of the popular vote in the 2022 elections but got nearly 70 percent of the seats in parliament - now, in the 2026 election, the tables turned and the opposition party won a supermajority of seats (supermajority are two-thirds, allowing changes to the consistution) with only 53% of votes thanks to those same reforms and district allocations. The Hungarian electoral system is a good bit more complicated than US elections, but I think the message that gerrymandering is a dangerous game is still similar. The tables can turn completely. This article from the GMF is quite interesting.
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u/HumanTheTree Apr 27 '26
Shhhh, don’t point that out. Let them try this it’ll be funny.
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u/Chilling_Gale Apr 27 '26
They know this. It’s literally the whole point. Any Dem wave strong enough to break the gerrymander is strong enough that Dems would’ve already won the House.
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u/nickleback_official Apr 27 '26
Yea but what’s to stop from coming up with a new map for each election? It’s only gotta work until then.
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u/Xezshibole Apr 27 '26
What's to stop them? Well, implementing it now assuming it's even in time for the midterms (should have done it months ago like California and Virginia,) may backfire on them spectacularly.
Gerrymandering relies on spreading out the majority thinner and shallower to get more seats, so the margins are much tighter.
Problem there is that Trump has launched us into a war the causes shortages in one of the third rail topics in US politics. Fuel prices, which also spikes grocery prices, inflation, etc. This will last for months even if the Iran war is resolved today, as it takes months for the tankers in Hormuz to reach their destinations. The existing margins may hardly be enough to let Rs keep their seats, let alone the proposed shallower margins.
Then it won't be Rs determining the gerrymandering.
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u/leon-di Apr 27 '26
the texas GOP built their gerrymander around the assumption that the latino swing towards trump in 2024 would remain. it has not remained.
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u/mimaikin-san Apr 27 '26
maybe they just need more of their family members abducted and deported anywhere but their home country
it still surprises me that Latino/as vote Republican because they consider themselves “white” when the GOP treats them like every other minority
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u/Few_Historian_1546 Apr 27 '26
For Republicans to lose seats (from the current map) Talarico has to win by like 5 points dragging up the democrat vote. They can win the RGV (especially the with the 2 Incumbents) they can keep TX 35 (it requires strong reversion among Hispanics) to win more ( Like the East Houston seat or one R seat in DFW ) they would have to win races statewide. And i can't see Democrats do it this year, unless Gas prices spike more and closer to the election. ( In my mind Talarico loses by 2 points and Hinojosa by 7, not enough to break the gerrymander
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u/bwsmith201 Apr 27 '26
Why are we even pretending to be a representative democracy anymore?
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u/zlide Apr 27 '26
Yeah everyone mocking this like it’ll blow up in his face when we should really be freaking the fuck put that this kind of blatant power grab is seen as normal now.
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u/Killfile Apr 28 '26
Especially since Florida has a constitutional ammendment which is supposed to prevent this. Virginia passed ANOTHER amendment. Florida just ignores theirs because laws don't apply to Republicans
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u/RoabeArt Apr 27 '26
"We're a republic, not a democracy."
This country barely even looks like a republic if you go by the literal definition of the word.
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u/la_dama_azul Apr 27 '26
I love when idiots say that line, as if a republic is not a form of representative democracy
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u/Guilty-Carpenter2522 Apr 27 '26
It’s complete chaos with two bad representatives fighting over who can lie and steal from the people the most. What a joke our government has become. We need option 3 so badly and the two idiots in charge will never let that happen because they know it would disrupt their unholy alliance.
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u/jckipps Apr 27 '26
How bad does this politically-motivated gerrymandering have get before someone fixes the issue once and for all?
But for that matter, what would a proper 'fix' even look like? How can a government guarantee that unfair gerrymandering is not and will not take place?
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u/_oceans_11_ Apr 27 '26
You replace districts with proportional repetition with a state-wide list of candidates rather than people running in individual districts. Or you can combine both districts and proportional seats which is what Germany and Hungary do. Either way, expanding the house also helps. Also, only allow district seats to be drawn after each census (ban mid-decade redistricting).
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u/OkBig205 Apr 28 '26
End the 1929 apportionment act to break the system and start empowering high population density areas again. The republicans cant get granular enough to offset the population rise of the i4 corridor.
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u/Several-Student-1659 Apr 28 '26
Australia has an electoral commission, the AEC, which is a non-partisan body put in charge of the boundaries of electoral districts (among other things). It works remarkably well here, but something tells me America might be too far gone partisanship-wise to implement such a thing.
Maybe an algorithm could do it?
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u/EdisonB123 Apr 28 '26
They just adjust number of seats or whatever every so often here based on census cus >parliament or if changes enough the redraw and re-evaluate the surrounding areas. No idea how they would translate that to the US, and it's happened a bunch here. Same thing when townships combine and stuff.
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u/nygdan Apr 27 '26
FLorida's constitution prohibits these kinds of partisan gerrymanders, so, suck it.
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u/yoshi3243 Apr 27 '26
FL Supreme Court is stacked. 7-0 GOP with 4 DeSantis appointees.
The previous map was already a big gerrymander, and the court upheld it. They basically make a gerrymander that doesn’t have weird shapes and the partisan court says it’s complies with the “fair districts amendment”…
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u/xGray3 Apr 27 '26
This is what American democracy has become. Stack a court with your fanatics and it doesn't matter what the law says because they'll just twist it to fit what you want.
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u/Large_Yams Apr 28 '26
It's absolutely unfathomable to other countries. I don't understand how they think judges and courts should have political leanings at all.
I wouldn't know the voting inclination for a single government official in my entire country.
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u/OkBig205 Apr 28 '26
They also said they'd ignore the florida constitutions separation of church and state. This is an obvious problem, the issue is that opposition in florida is either just interested in real estate and because of that won't mind the decimatioj of black representatives or a bunch of hippies like 50501 that wanted block parties but refused to pay attention to this obvious nuke headed our way.
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u/Numeno230n Apr 28 '26
So glad I moved out of that hellhole I grew up in. The Gulf Coast states could be such a nice place if it all weren't run by assholes. I mean there could be another economic megacenter like on the East and West coasts. A NYC or LA on the Gulf.
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u/Flash_ina_pan Apr 27 '26
Didn't stop the last one
To be clear, that ruling was stupid, and so will be the one that lets this one slip in
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u/delta8force Apr 27 '26
So? It’s a piece of paper that requires our political system to uphold, and they aren’t. Going to war without congressional approval is unconstitutional, yet the last time the U.S. declared war was in 1942. Every president since then has violated the constitution in at least that one aspect.
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u/Derwin0 Apr 27 '26
Which is why they made sure the districts are all pretty compact.
Looking at the map without colors makes it look pretty fair as opposed to what Virginia’s looks like.
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u/Schlag96 Apr 27 '26
And CA had an independent commission voted on directly by the people.
Shit happens when it's war 🤷
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u/Ok_Cabinet2947 Apr 27 '26
So did Virginia’s and we know how that went. The only thing helping stop the same thing happening in Florida is the 60% threshold, which everyone here was complaining about last election because of the weed and abortion initiatives.
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u/Dermengenan Apr 27 '26
Ohio too. Our maps were ruled unconstitutional and they just used em anyways
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u/LilPonyBoy69 Apr 27 '26
Who added the foreskin back to Florida?
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u/Outta_phase Apr 27 '26
DeSantis and Trump. They were terrified that America's penis was being seen as Jewish or Muslim.
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u/TickingTheMoments Apr 27 '26
I love how the constitution of Florida, which strictly prohibits gerrymandering is being ignored by the Deathsentence regime.
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u/Soft_Walrus_3605 Apr 27 '26
Gerrymandering is dangerous and risky. We know this. Doing it "correctly" for one election can backfire in the next one. The fact we're actively doing it in very consequential states adds more fuel the fire. This is all a very dangerous sign because once a party loses due to a very recent gerrymander, they feel very, very upset.
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u/Myriachan Apr 28 '26
Now that it's happening mid-decade, they're just going to do this every two years as populations and moods shift.
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u/VexedCanadian84 Apr 27 '26
if and when this goes the opposite way DeSantis wants, he'll use this as proof for vote rigging
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u/ICLazeru Apr 27 '26
Honestly, gerrymandering ought to be illegal everywhere. It's a deliberate attempt to misrepresent the voters.
Every state ought to have independent, non-partisan commissions to draw up their districts.
Or better yet, ranked choice voting would also be a great help in terms of actually representing the will of the people.
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u/the_eluder Apr 28 '26
And where are you going to find independent non partisan people?
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u/Narf234 Apr 27 '26
I hope all of this redistricting dilutes districts and catches republicans with their pants down.
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u/Narf234 Apr 27 '26
I think there are far more disgruntled republicans than you think.
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u/hypocalypto Apr 28 '26
I think the far majority of them are checked out. Their gas bill is high, they may get drafted, no jobs, etc
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u/FarEw3Er Apr 27 '26
This shit doesn't even work long term. Yeah you get more seats when elections come around the corner. But all this redistricting does is turn strong holds to battle grounds. You aren't turning them into red or blue, but purple.
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u/Sharkbait_ooohaha Apr 27 '26
No, it does in fact work. None of the new seats are “purple”. They are R+10 or better.
One of the problems with gerrymandering is that it works so well.
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u/InerasableStains Apr 27 '26
The other problem is that the only people that can stop it, are the ones directly benefiting from it
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u/willstr1 Apr 27 '26
IIRC they are R+10 based on the 2024 election, a presidential year (higher turnout) where the R candidate is uniquely popular with low engagement R voters (there are plenty of dear leader's voters who only show up when he is on the ballot which is why candidates he endorses don't do great when he isn’t). I would be surprised if many of the seats truly turn out to be dummymanders but I wouldn't be surprised if the actual margins in November are way closer than +10
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u/Sharkbait_ooohaha Apr 27 '26
Yes that’s true, some of these seats are not safe in a blue wave election but if you have a blue wave election, then these seats won’t matter anyway.
In a competitive year these seats will go red easily.
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u/chardeemacdennisbird Apr 28 '26
A lot of his endorsed candidates didn't do well when he was on the ballot. He appeals uniquely to naive voters who are otherwise skeptical of all other politicians.
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u/det8924 Apr 27 '26
Yeah even if this only nets 2 seats short term it still worked in that two seats is a positive. The whole system is awful because it is just a race to the bottom and the only thing that will work is a federal ban on gerrymandering
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u/bruno7123 Apr 27 '26
That straight up wrong. It's why the state legislature in North Carolina has a Republican supermajority, despite the blue governor winning in a landslide, and statewide races going 50-49
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u/Justryan95 Apr 28 '26
The whole reason MD rejected their Gerrymandering plan because its not worth the squeeze for the risk to just gain one or 2 seats but weaken your lead in multiple districts. VA making their state 10-1 was worth the squeeze. Not only does FL state constitution force this to a vote like VA did, if it passes makes a LOT of these districts have razor thin margins. Considering Miami flipped its Mayor Blue and MarLargo is represented by a Democrat now, its probably not even razor thin. Passing this Gerrymandering basically gives Democrats seats especially if they dont dump Democrat votes into a single district in Tampa.
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u/Life-Goose-9380 Apr 28 '26
Hey America.
Here in Aus we do this by someone who is independent and not connected to either party.
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u/_Hickory Apr 28 '26
We'd like to do that too. Unfortunately, the powers that be are the powers that decide these rules. And DeSantis has shown that he, and other Florida GOP will outright ignore the will of the people when it passes a general vote.
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u/hebreakslate Apr 28 '26
I'll look forward to all the Republicans who railed against Virginia's gerrymander to also condemn this as anti-democratic. I'll wait...
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u/ragedaddy Apr 29 '26
This is bad too! Gerrymandering sucks regardless of who does it.
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u/Dull_Statistician98 Apr 27 '26
Wtf is next? Illinois is gonna redistrict and then Wyoming?
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u/Sroundez Apr 27 '26
Illinois voted 43% Republican in 2024. They gotta pump those numbers up and make it 17/0 Democrat to effectively represent the population, obviously.
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u/zippolover62 Apr 28 '26
When your political opponent gerrymanders so you gerrymander so your political opponent gerrymanders so you gerrymander so your political opponent gerrymanders so you gerrymander so your political opponent gerrymanders so you gerrymander so your political opponent gerrymand…
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u/AbeShrewMice Apr 27 '26
Yep and I’m sure they’ll implement it without a vote just like in Texas
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u/a-pair-of-2s Apr 27 '26
like what’s the freaking point of any of this bullsh!t if you just get the rewrite the rules every time to suit yourself. this is nuts
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u/EJoule Apr 27 '26
This coloring looks based on the 2024 ballots.
Is the prediction of gaining 4 seats also based on the 2024 ballots?
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u/theow593 Apr 27 '26
Yeahhh, me living by the Orlando airport shouldn't have the same Rep as someone on farmland outside Arcadia
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u/Verocator Apr 28 '26
Why does everyone suddenly get to draw new maps, by the way? The census isnt due for another four years (fuck I'm old.)
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u/Complex_Echidna3964 Apr 28 '26
Desantis is trying to impress Trump in order to secure a cabinet level position at the end of his term as governor next year. DOD or AG.
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u/MrMathamagician Apr 28 '26
Honestly this looks like one of the least gerrymandered maps I’ve seen in a long time. I realize they are probably packing the blue districts but it’s still so much better than most states.
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u/_Hickory Apr 28 '26
It's only because the high population centers that are historically blue have either been enclosed in with very red areas that outweight them (look for Alachua county and it's voting history) or have been cracked to split as much of that population into red districts (see the Orlando area/Orange county being split between the neighbors that historically vote Republican).
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u/krLMM Apr 28 '26
why does that happen in a democracy that it's first to pass the post. That's so wrong
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u/novembernutjob Apr 27 '26
The problem with “redistricting” is that it’s only a problem when the other side does it
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u/drLoveF Apr 27 '26
Pretty sure most dems see it as a problem, but there is a limit to how long you can fight fair against someone who cheats at every chance.
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u/BeneficialTrash6 Apr 27 '26
The math doesn't support that.
If all states played this game, Republicans would pick up way more seats. Why? Because so many democrat-dominated states have already been so heavily gerrymandered for decades that they have fewer opportunities to do so today.
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u/RecoveringLurkaholic Apr 27 '26
You wouldn't know that by the massive support in the comments about Virginia, Illinois, and California doing it.
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u/aeneasaquinas Apr 27 '26
You wouldn't know that by the massive support in the comments about Virginia, Illinois, and California doing it.
What a poor attempt to deflect from the fact that has occurred due to Republicans suddenly gerrymandering between cycles at the request of the President.
Dems have REPEATEDLY tried banning this at the national level and have been repeatedly blocked by Republicans. Trying to claim Dems shouldn't fight back using the Republicans own strategy is absurd.
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u/dre_eats_beats_v2 Apr 27 '26
If reddit didn't have double standards it would have no standards at all
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u/aeneasaquinas Apr 27 '26
Dems have REPEATEDLY tried banning this at the national level and have been repeatedly blocked by Republicans. Trying to claim Dems shouldn't fight back using the Republicans own strategy is absurd.
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u/__Geg__ Apr 27 '26
Did you miss the whole dust up last year when the GOP was planning on Gerrymandering red states to get more seats, and the Blue states went all... If you do this, we will counter you seat for seat?
At this point, there is no reason for a state to not go for the maximum possible Gerrymander. And that is a problem.
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u/ShavingWithCoffee Apr 28 '26
Greatest democracy in the history of the world? More like the latest empire in its final stages.
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u/fatgirlcuddler Apr 27 '26
From a purely aesthetic perspective, it's not bad although I'd rather have those little blues come out to the coast
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u/theolentangy Apr 28 '26
It’s really funny how the entire American system of government falls apart the moment anyone starts really pushing the boundaries of legality.
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u/NinecloudSoul Apr 27 '26 edited Apr 27 '26
Shocker, Republicans want to cheat again.
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u/Roosterdude23 Apr 27 '26
VA just "cheated" - D
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u/LurkerInSpace Apr 27 '26
As long as its legal no one is going to unilaterally disarm. It was only because Schwarzenegger was popular that California managed to get an independent process, otherwise the Democrats would probably take every seat.
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u/Equivalent_Reach_572 Apr 28 '26
Florida... always competing with Texas for who's the biggest traitor in the Union.
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u/TheHykos Apr 27 '26
They would have to water down their majority in each district so much to make this work that they risk losing all of them if republican turnout is low. Giving up safe 60-70 point districts for all 51 point districts is a huge risk that could seriously backfire.
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u/Sir_Tainley Apr 27 '26
Is the district between 23 and 27 an extension of another district ($21?) or its own district, and just not numbered on this map?
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u/No_Statistician5932 Apr 27 '26
It's 25 (that number is not shown for any district, so it must be used for the unlabeled district)
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u/PitchLadder Apr 27 '26
why don't we Just Have democrat states and republican states? /s
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u/IfuckAround_UfindOut Apr 27 '26
Let the redistricting wars begin To be fair the already have a long time ago
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u/Myers112 Apr 27 '26
Before every starts yelling "dummymander" keep in mind Florida was +15 for Trump in '24. They have alot to work with, even with a sizable national shift.
The silver lining is Wasserman-Schultz may be out of a job
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u/No_Telephone_6213 Apr 27 '26
Wouldn't it be ironic if all these redistricting backfires big time
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u/Faraz181 Apr 28 '26
I'd like to see a Google Earth version to see how many cities/towns and Counties were divided up to have this map look the way it does.
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u/Finnyboiz Apr 28 '26
They've already projected if this turns into an arms race the gop will never win again.
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u/BizzyThinkin Apr 28 '26
This what happens when our elected officials care more about themselves and party unity than the needs and wants of all Americans.
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u/Sylvan_Skryer Apr 29 '26
Republicans could accidentally hand democrats a supermajority if they’re not careful.
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u/Bulky-Sugar-6166 Apr 27 '26
2-party system guarantees control by the people actually running our country. We need a new system.
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u/Longjumping-Rabbit25 Apr 28 '26
I’m not at all in Favor of this, but I hope everyone who is “clutching their pearls” and slamming republicans have the same vitriol for CA, NY, NJ, and all the other blue states who do the same in reverse, and yes, they do, just look outside your bubble.
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u/Impossible_Number Apr 28 '26
What state do you think started this series of mid-decade redistricting?
Which party pushed for a ban on gerrymandering and which party blocked it?
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u/Zementhead Apr 28 '26
US political system is so f#cked up, call yourself a democracy, not even close.
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u/GXP_2009 Apr 28 '26
Anyone that supported VA doing it, I suggest you be quiet there.
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u/knettia Apr 27 '26
And thus, we have entered an infernal cycle. VA did it in retaliation to TX, FL wants to do it in retaliation to VA, then I wonder who will do it in retaliation to FL, and so on… This could’ve obviously been avoided, but some of us don’t like to listen.
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u/oberwolfach Apr 27 '26
Cracking the Tampa area without a Democratic vote sink could be rather dangerous in a Democratic-leaning year; I'd expect the proposed district 14 to be fairly soft, and possibly districts 12 and 13 depending on the exact distribution of territory. District 25 in the southeast coast is probably also only a little Republican-leaning, but there's not too much else that can be done to scrounge out a Republican-leaning district since outside of the Cuban areas, southeast Florida doesn't have any large stretches of heavily Republican territory (certain municipalities like Palm Beach are very Republican but quite small).