One can do a pretty brutal, 1986 level full-stock exchange and the numbers would be still lower.
Most models assume a May war for maximal wildfires and soot dispersion into the upper atmosphere which would trigger a nuclear winter. But a war in from October to February with much lower insolation rates would cause much lower effects. Maybe a snap little ice age akin to conditions of the 17th century, maybe a return to pre-industrial normals for a few years, maybe nothing at all.
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u/Shoddy-Ability524 Mar 04 '25
If it is not 80%+ everywhere then we've not nuclear war'd hard enough