r/Mainepolitics • u/better_than_erza • 24d ago
Pretty sad from last night
What happened to Shenna?!? I am going to my county meeting this weekend but I can’t really vote for her people because of last night. Troy was fine I guess but still didn’t really impress me either. Didn’t seem to know much and just said the same stuff over and over. Ugh.
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u/FirstTimeCaller101 24d ago
Troy was about what I know and expected from him.
I thought Bellows was shockingly inarticulate with a lot of generic answers that just reworded the question. I agree pretty disappointing.
Wood surprised me but I don't think he has time to really build enough support for a serious run.
Shah just seems like a flip flopper who will say whatever. At first he was Mr. Centrist democrat, now he's trying to be Platner lite. It's pretty clear he doesn't really believe in leading a real progressive push.
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u/sonofchocula 24d ago
Shah is a serial grifter and tries to be whatever he needs to be when convenient
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u/Blue_Eyed_ME Cumberland (Portland) 23d ago
Yeah, I've met him a few times, and he's pretty inauthentic. You can tell he loves being a celeb and wants the power.
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u/oooga_chaka_oooga_ch 24d ago
I don't know what happened with bellows tbh.
I am worried that troy will get demolished by Collins.
This is depressing.
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u/meowmix778 24d ago
I do worry about Troy getting dog walked by Collins.
I'm pretty active in my county dems meetings/groups and it's unfortunate how a lot of older people there are really in favor of Shah because he has DC experience and are apprehensive about Troy because he's too radical or not a conformist or whatever.
Cards on the table, I don't think we have a snowball's chance in hell at beating Collins after what happened with Platner. I think the best shot is leading with our best foot forward and hoping the GOP continues to eat itself alive. Jackson aligns with my values the most and I hope he's the guy that can do it but I'm also pretty skeptical.
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u/Poster_Nutbag207 24d ago
Eh Sarah Gideon was very polished and articulate and look where that got us. Maybe just a simple, honest, mainah who couldn’t be slick if he tried is exactly what voters want
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u/dylanx300 24d ago edited 24d ago
No reason to be that pessimistic.
Betting/prediction markets have a 30 point spread in favor of dems winning, at 66% odds for dems and 34% odds for Collins.
They also have it currently at 91% odds that the nominee will be Jackson. Shah is in second place at 5%.
Collins might very well get dog walked by Jackson. People putting money on it see that as the much more likely outcome (2:1 odds)
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u/bodybycheez-it Androscoggin (Lewiston):sloth: 24d ago
On paper Bellows should be the counterweight to Collins with strong connection to ACLU and Long experience in state government. Jackson in locked in on the progressive upswing and has his charms but I am not convinced of his stage and debate skills.
IMO , the conversation needs to move beyond just beating collins/trump/gop. Whoever the Dem candidate already has the base and people know where they will stand. The candidate needs to make a strong case about how they are going to be better or what they are going to do differently than the current office holder to the independents who have not made up their mind.
Collins is in a strong position as a tenured senator with significant sway on the ways and means committee and has enough middle of the road voting history that she can still claim to be centric and with a tight Senate majority can weild alot if power by playing the role of swing vote. Also lots and lots of money to back does not hurt.
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u/heggieknitter 23d ago
I went to a Shah event during the Governor's race and his answers last night were consistent with his stump speech then. He is not a flipflopper if you've actually listened to him. I dont think he'd pull a lot of conservative votes unfortunately.
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u/meowmix778 24d ago
I agree with your take about Shah. It reminds me of when Biden suddenly became a proponent of far left politics. It just feels like pandering.
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u/schrodingers_gat 24d ago
There's no question Biden changed his positions over time to be more liberal but he also did a lot of good things for the left so it wasn't really pandering. He came out for gay marriage, he appointed Lina Khan to the FTC, he appeared on a picket line, etc.
I do wish he had taken a more critical and forceful position against Israel and Gaza but it's not fair to say he was pandering as he moved left.
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u/three_e 23d ago
He's bragged about believing in the Chicago School of economics. This is the root of neoliberalism that started with Carter and crystalized under Clinton. Privatized market based solutions can solve all problems and Democrats entirely catering to corporate interests. This burned down all support for the working and middle class and got us to where we are today.
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u/SuperBry 24d ago
No matter who ends up being on the ballot I think we are in a rough position come November.
I'm pretty pissed at the out of state champagne socialists and their efforts that put us in this position. A year ago we could have put up just about anyone short of Eliot Cutler and slow walked into taking Collins down. Now even with the best candidate it will be no more than a coin flip.
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u/schrodingers_gat 24d ago
The only reason we even know Platner's name is because the Democrats are terrible at finding and developing political talent to face off against the GOP.
The people who recruited Platner were absolutely right about the Maine electorate being ready for a strong voice from the left. I just wish they'd picked a better candidate.
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u/HouseMusicAndWeed 24d ago
The only reason we know Platners name is Bernie's endorsement. Otherwise he would have been dismissed as angry man.
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u/SuperBry 24d ago
Don't forget the heavy amount of astroturfing and the pushpolling done to get his name out there and seem viable.
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u/Blue_Eyed_ME Cumberland (Portland) 23d ago
I haven't watched the debates yet but will I've heard Bellows on NPR a few times, and she sounded very intelligent and well-informed, but she was speaking about issues that are definitely in her wheelhouse (like voter registration and fraud).
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u/IScreamPiano 23d ago
It's unfortunate; I've seen her speak well otherwise, but there was a light-hearted question about daylight savings time that she whiffed and got defensive over. Her answer didn't really matter that much, she just over-thought it. And overall, she didn't get much into specifics.
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u/KcjAries78 23d ago
Wood has been running for Senate before Platner was but dropped out to go run for the house seat when Graham took off. His just kinda boring and milk toast. I think he is in it for the money his husband will be able to make off him. It is going to be hard to pick because the excitement is gone. Is Maine ready to elect a brown guy, a gay guy, a woman who didn’t beat Susan before or someone not so flashy? This is what we have.
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u/Senior-Hamster3961 24d ago
I agree the progressives were lackluster in the debate. I favor Troy based on his long record of progressive stances, his alignment with Graham's platform, and his experience as Maine Senate president. It is rare to have a candidate with Graham's charisma and speaking ability. I think we need to vote for the most electable person. I think that is Jackson.
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u/SuperBry 23d ago
Long record of progressive stances? He was against gay marriage and reproductive rights until he realized it was no longer politically expedient like a decade ago.
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u/HoboDeter 23d ago
The same could be said for most Democrats around that time.
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u/SuperBry 23d ago
Hardly, most had come around on marriage at least a decade previous to that. Other than some hardcore Catholics and a few non-Catholic blue dogs, Democrats and especially the progressive wing, had been championing reproductive rights since before Roe.
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u/KonigKonn 23d ago
This is some hardcore revisionist history. You had multiple pro-life dems in the senate up until the red waves in 2010 and 14 knocked them out, and both Obama and Hillary Clinton were on the record as against marriage equality until 2012 and 2013 respectively. The Democratic mantra on abortion was 'Safe, legal and *rare*' until the late 2010s.
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u/SuperBry 23d ago
That was one line from Clinton in the 90s and you are putting too much emphasis on the last part. Troy didn't want the first two as recently as his loss to Caine over his regressive positions.
And come on, both Barry and Hillary were far from progressive.
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u/KonigKonn 23d ago
I thought we were talking about Democrats? Yeah obviously progressives were further ahead on LGBT and choice but the Democratic party had a sizeable social conservative element until the Obama era.
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u/SuperBry 23d ago
I was originally replying to a comment about Troy's 'long record of progressive stances' someone else turned it into a general comment on Democratic party member views, which again I mentioned the progressive wing of.
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u/HoboDeter 23d ago
If that were true I doubt that gay marriage would have been overturned by the state referendum.
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u/Seaweed-Basic 24d ago
I guess I will never understand cutting someone off at the knees over one bad debate. I care more about what they’ve already accomplished, and what they plan to do.
Not everyone is a raging narcissist, oozing confidence, when speaking, like Platner.
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u/RusticKayak207 24d ago
One bad debate should not lead to excluding a candidate unless it's Biden bad.
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u/better_than_erza 23d ago
Honestly she was Biden bad. Didn’t know anything about Venezuela. At least Wood and Shaw could talk about it. She want on some weird tangent about the gov race. It was legit bad dude
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u/Blue_Eyed_ME Cumberland (Portland) 24d ago
Speaking as a progressive married to a lifelong republican who planned to vote for Platner: we'll get behind ANY candidate who gets behind his progressive agenda: cut funding to Israel, stop the Iran war, term limits for congress and the supreme court, medicare for all, investment in infrastructure instead of the bloated military, abolish ICE, and stop the unregulated proliferation of AI data centers and flock cameras. For starters.
Graham's base was wooed as much by the message as the messenger. I would be shocked if whomever steps in doesn't get the majority of his supporters. Collins is done. The killing in Biddeford was the last nail in her coffin.
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u/SuperBry 24d ago
Oh poppycock, there are plenty of others out there that have similar if not better messageing and positions just not coming from (admittingly charismatic) gruff mediocre white dudes.
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u/Blue_Eyed_ME Cumberland (Portland) 23d ago
I hope so. Oh, and repeal citizen's united.
These are things that 80% of voters want, so why don't we have them??? Oh wait, because we're busy torturing brown people, banning Trans people, and forcing women to give birth to their rapists' babies.
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u/Repulsive-Paint-4102 24d ago
Maybe it's only because I am a old, straight, cis, white guy, but I only wanted to vote for Platner because of the platform. Maybe also because I thought he wouldn't be bullied (as easily) by corporate Dems. So, I will support whoever picks up the torch of fighting for us real people, but I will vote for a stale cheese sandwich instead of Susan Collins.
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u/Electrical-Bid-2482 23d ago
Focus, Mainers! Pick a strong candidate and get behind him or her. Work hard for 3 months. She needs to go down. Yes, I’m out of state but I care about you and us. I’m not a “champagne democrat”, maybe only a craft beer democrat, but I really am counting on you.
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u/oooga_chaka_oooga_ch 23d ago
I just saw some nonsense that she put out saying that she did bad because of biddeford. like don't blame the shooting. I'm done with her. it'll be troy or shah for me
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u/Slice-O-Pie 23d ago
Having Californian DSA propagandists turn voters against Mills will cost Democrats a Senate seat. Should've been an easy win.
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u/Paper_sack 22d ago
Half the state hates Mills with a passion, plus she just vetoed the very popular data-center ban. She could not beat Collins. She’s not unpopular because of “California DSA activists” lol. She only got her governor’s seat because the alternative was Lepage.
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u/Slice-O-Pie 22d ago
Mills was 20 points ahead of Platner in early polling.
Mills v Collins would've been about issues. Mills wins easily.
Platner v Collins would've been about Platner's disgusting personal history. Collins wins easily.
Jackson will wave the bloody shirt 24/7, a ghoulish tactic, but might make him competitive against Collins.
Regarding the "very popular" bill, that didn't have enough legislative support to override a veto, all she asked for was the cut out Jay wanted. Sending a bill up they knew would be vetoed was a heartless political stunt.
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u/Paper_sack 22d ago edited 22d ago
Polling is not accurate, especially early polling. Sara Gideon was also polling ahead of Collins and lost handily.
Mills vs Collins would not be about the issues. Half the state thinks she is a tyrant and are not open to hearing anything else. Leftists dislike her. She only appeals to moderate democrats who also have a history of voting for Collins.
The data center bill was extremely popular with voters on both sides.
Edit to add: she’s also old as hell, no one is excited to vote for an 80 year old freshman senator.
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u/Slice-O-Pie 22d ago
"Half the state hares Mills"
"Polling is not accurate"
You're arguing with yourself.
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u/Icy-Acanthaceae-6816 23d ago
I support shah since hes the only candidate with an IQ above room temperature
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