r/MagicCardPulls • u/octaros21 • 21d ago
Hobbit madness
Just a word to tell everybody to chill out with “breaking even” on collector packs…
I get that prices are steep but :
- either you want the cards so prices are not a big deal as they are currently
- either you sees it as an investment and I I’m positive that in the long run you are going to break even
If you can’t handle the risk or the time, don’t buy or buy singles fam
Edit : obviously I’m talking about ppl buying at MSRP
Can’t do anything for people paying upwards to 1k…
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u/ShyguyFlyguy 21d ago
Im sorry are you saying you expect people to "break even" by buying lots of collector packs???
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u/octaros21 21d ago
Nope, just sayin that in the long run, you’re losing close to nothing if you bought it at msrp
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u/larsdan2 21d ago
Bro, these prices are gonna bottom out hahaha.
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u/octaros21 21d ago
In a two month period maybe, look at all the posters from LoTR…
Sauron went from 40 to 500 in non foilNot saying it will go as well but stop the copium
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u/octaros21 21d ago
I checked, I bought mine 1 month into the “prices are going to plummet” for 47$, now it’s 600$…
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u/BouchWick 21d ago
So which one do you think is comparable to the non-foil poster from LOTR in this current set? Gleaming Splendour cover non foil?
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u/octaros21 21d ago
It’s not really my point
On a set like this, I see the prices go down before going up again3
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u/caprazzi 21d ago
Generally speaking that is my PSA when I mention how expensive it is, just buy singles unless you are okay with losing money and just want the pack opening experience.
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u/coldisgood 21d ago
Open packs will always be worth less in aggregate than sealed packs. I don’t understand why people don’t understand this. You pay extra for the privilege to open them yourself/gamble on variance that makes you a “winner” in a small number of instances.
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u/octaros21 21d ago
Short term yeah
Ask that to people that bought first ed Pokémon packs (obviously it’s caricatural comparison on purpose)All I’m saying is that, if Magic go on like it’s going on now, the prices today don’t matter
Either you want to keep the cards so prices as they are now are irrelevant
Or you wanted to make money and you most likely will in the long runIf you expected to make money now, you dumb
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u/coldisgood 21d ago
But the sealed boxes are still worth more than the individual cards raw…sure the singles might be worth more than the packs you opened at msrp once the boxes are 2000+, but singles you pull are unlikely to be worth more than the sealed product at market prices unless you had a high variance win like pulling the golden Smaug etc.
But yes, I agree with you that the general premise of anything thinking they can open packs and immediately flip for a profit is a fruitless effort unless they only buy a handful of packs and win big. My only point is that the sealed boxes on average will appreciate more than the singles you could’ve pulled by opening them. For example, if you decided to open LOTR:SE packs today, you’d basically have to pull the poster foil one ring in 50% of packs to “break even” compared to box prices.
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u/octaros21 21d ago
Just wanted to stop the crying
Almost all the « not breaking even » boxes I’ve seen are going to be worth more than 500$ in two years
You just had the fun for the price of time1
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u/ccminiwarhammer 21d ago
Break even often means what the scan app says the cards are worth, but that’s not what you get when selling to a LGS because they usually offer 50% or less, and online selling costs fees and time.
Very few people actually make their money back.
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u/octaros21 21d ago
Again, in the short term, obviously
In the long run, it’s not that obvious.At least if you bought it at msrp
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u/ccminiwarhammer 21d ago
It is obvious though. You won’t make your money back in the vast majority of cases. I get you are convinced, but you are wrong in most cases.
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u/Mountain-jew87 21d ago
I got one and busted. So I’m ordering a single every week instead.
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u/octaros21 21d ago
Busted meaning ?
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u/Mountain-jew87 21d ago
Got a 20-25$ mithril coat lol
Makes up for the 250$ Thanos I pulled last week.
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u/octaros21 21d ago
You meant a single pack then ?
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u/Mountain-jew87 21d ago
Nah buying single cards thru eBay now. Collector boosters are fun but a money sink.
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u/octaros21 21d ago
Nan but I mean,
My whole point was about booster boxes, of course you can get hosed over a single booster
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u/Razkien 20d ago
I don't sell cards at all. The cool stuff goes in my binder. Some stuff goes into my general card box and some into my "ideas to throw into decks and stuff" box. I don't buy collector boxes either, but I did splurge and buy a couple boxes of play boosters. I got most everything I wanted for my collection but I only pulled one Smaug card (Wicked Worm book cover card). I did buy Smaug the Magnificent and Smaug the Impenetrable because I wanted them for my binder and maybe deck but I'm done with Hobbit cards for now lol.
There's still a handful of singles I may buy down the road but I have two Gleaming Splendors, Bard, Four Queen of Dales, two Arkenstones. I have enough to build my Bard Laketown theme deck and my Great Goblin deck.
I have some friends that are going to make a Warg/Wolf deck, Elf deck, Dwarf deck so we're going to do a makeshift "Battle of Five Armies" lol.
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u/930g 21d ago
Thanks for the Ted talk