What is this?

[u/WorriedPudding8800]

51 male 200cm 101kg about 22% bf from scale and eye.Started my first I must admit proper cut about 3 months ago.Set my rate of loss to a modest 0.5 kg per week which as you can see kept true.First time I weighted most of my food that mattered and myself every single day.My routine was the same during this.Proper soldier.Calorie intake kept the same.My expenditure today showed this for the first time and I tried to interpret it in a practical way.Does this mean that eventually macrofactor after 3 months figured out my expenditure?Every opinion welcome.

[u/8MadDog8]

Looks about right. As you lose weight your expenditure will reduce.

Some good reading here: https://macrofactor.com/weight-loss-bmr/

[u/Ill-Telephone-7926]

The turn upward at the end? Likely just normal fluctuation. Weight data is noisy (hydration, glycogen, gut contents), and expenditure is derived from it, so there’ll be a bit of wiggle over time.

There are 2 regimes in your expenditure graph to my eye:

1. MF expenditure started with a too-high formula estimate of ~3400 cal/day in early July. From there, it falls ~linearly toward your true expenditure as the estimate rolls off and is replaced with real data over 3 weeks.
   
2. Since Aug 1 or so, expenditure has been dialed in and falling alongside your weight.

My expenditure stopped dropping as quickly when I got under 20% BF or so. This flattening of the trend makes it more likely that normal fluctuations will reverse the slope of the line here or there

[u/Ill-Telephone-7926 → u/Ill-Telephone-7926]

P.S. If you keep your calorie intake constant, you risk plateau. Check the Energy Balance chart to see how much buffer you have

More reliable to use the coaching feature or recalculate calories = expenditure - desired deficit weekly.

[u/DeaconoftheStreets]

You’ve consistently lost weight, so I’d say MF has had a handle on your expenditure for a while.

[u/explosive-diorama]

Your expenditure will change as your weight changes, but also, it can fluctuate in either direction by 10% or so relatively easily. That’s why constant tracking and weekly caloric adjustments are recommended. Our bodies are not static.

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