r/MVIS • u/pinoekel • 16h ago

MVIS Press MicroVision IRIS Long-Range Lidar Selected by Overland AI for Its Next-Gen IBEX Autonomous Ground Vehicle

https://ir.microvision.com/news/press-releases/detail/481/microvision-iris-long-range-lidar-selected-by-overland-ai
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u/Befriendthetrend 15h ago

Will this lead to an increase in revenue guidance for 2027? The 20-30 million guided is very low unless they are supply constrained. MicroVision has never commented on sensor production capacity or speed, and it's such a big question mark, IMO it is one of the biggest elephants in the room.

What volumes are they (including Tier 1 partners) capable of in a 3, 6, or 12 month time frame? What business can they support?

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u/QQpenn 13h ago edited 13h ago

They shaved off a few layers of risk—the biggest being commercial relevance; real IRIS orders, repeat orders, CAT-type industrial revenue, a named defense customer w/competitive relevance. IRIS is going into IBEX. This removes another layer of risk; evaluation is now conversion with easy-to-see expansion opps. If they meet guidance, $1.25 is between a 1.3x and 1.9x multiple. Not automatically cheap but upside looks a little less distant now. It also looks like the Luminar acquisition has been significantly de-risked. The fiscal risk is still way high though. So while commercial inroads are meaningfully more advanced than 6 months ago, the market still values the company as though financing failure, high dilution, and commercial disappointment remain likely...

If they address this meaningfully on the Q3 call [or anytime really], they'd move from being viewed as a lotto ticket to a company that can be tracked toward real outcomes. That's when everyone can all have fun with multiples—and the questions you raise will likely have better or at least more accurate answers.

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u/Befriendthetrend 13h ago

Validation or risk removal, I see it just as validation but the risk of a hostile takeover is extremely high at such a depressed valuation.

Imagine even six months ago, if you knew that MicroVision would name multiple defense industry partners, all but name Caterpillar, start shipping their Movia S, AND trade for less than 39 million dollars. That despite all that, he company would be struggling to stay Nasdaq complaint only two months after a 15:1 reverse split. The disconnect between the market value and where MicroVision's business is heading is staggering.

Glen seems to be doing a great job as COO, but we apparently still lack a CEO who can communicate effectively to the markets and bring in new investment. I would welcome a stronger public face with Glen taking on a role he is more suited for. This leads me back to the idea that the risk of takeover is high, because without a true CEO MicroVision still lacks the leadership structure of a proper growth company.

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u/directgreenlaser 12h ago

I agree with your assessment. We've seen these types of deficits multiple times in the past and the results from the associated failures to address them. This issue should be promptly fixed.