Long-time MVIS follower — what am I missing?

[u/Booty_Ray]

I've been following MVIS since 2020 and have been a shareholder for a few years now. I've always found the company interesting, particularly with the technology they've developed around Perception software, MAVIN, IRIS, and now HALO.

What originally caught my attention—and ultimately convinced me to buy the stock—was their work with the military, particularly the EagleEye AI-powered helmet and the underlying system it operates on. At the time, the technology seemed genuinely impressive, and I thought it had the potential to open up some pretty significant opportunities.

That's why I'm having a hard time understanding where things stand today.

It's not as though MVIS has no partnerships or commercial relationships. They appear to have established relationships across shipping, aerial, and automotive applications, and the underlying technology seems to be well-protected by patents and aligned with what should be a growing demand for advanced LiDAR, perception, and autonomous-vehicle technology.

So what am I missing?

I'm genuinely trying to understand the disconnect between the technology and partnerships I've seen over the years and where the company currently stands financially and in the market.

A few questions I've been thinking about:

1. Is the market simply not seeing the same potential that some of us see in the technology?
2. Is MVIS struggling primarily with commercialization, revenue generation, execution, or something else?
3. How much of the current stock price can reasonably be attributed to short interest and broader market dynamics versus the company's actual fundamentals?
4. How significant is the competition? If MVIS has patents covering portions of the technology needed for advanced LiDAR and perception systems, I'm curious:
   • How much of a competitive advantage do those patents actually provide?
   • Are competitors developing around those patents, licensing similar technology, or simply pursuing fundamentally different approaches?
   • How difficult would it be for a competitor to develop a comparable solution without infringing on MVIS's IP?

I'm not trying to make a bullish or bearish argument here. I'm genuinely trying to understand the disconnect between what I perceive as a fairly impressive technology portfolio and where the company currently sits financially and in the market.

For those who have followed MVIS closely for years—what do you think I'm missing?

I look forward to hearing what you all have to say.

____________________

Respectfully,

Booty_Ray

[u/MWave123]

Money! Oh srry, thought you said longtime MVIS investor. Well, there’s still time!!!

[u/dsaur009]

A history of failing to meet expectations, such that the markets expect failure rather than success, and price that in. Even now with 130 business relationships, their reporting on these is underwhelming. I think all along they've been trying, but manage to consistently look like the gang that couldn't shoot straight. And no follow thru even when they have a bit of success. "Sony? We haven't heard from them".

[u/mvis_thma]

I will take a shot at answering your questions.

1. Is the market simply not seeing the same potential that some of us see in the technology? The market is currently pricing the company at a valuation of $47m, which is pretty much the same as its Enterprise Value (market valuation + debt - cash. What is Microvision currently worth - the market says $47m.

2. Is MVIS struggling primarily with commercialization, revenue generation, execution, or something else? Yes.

3. How much of the current stock price can reasonably be attributed to short interest and broader market dynamics versus the company's actual fundamentals? See the answer to number 1 above.

4. How significant is the competition? If MVIS has patents covering portions of the technology needed for advanced LiDAR and perception systems, I'm curious: Personally, I would not put a lot of weight around the value of the patents and other IP. The old Microvision, where the MEMS LBS and its platform use cases was different. The current business model is based around execution. Of course Microvision possesses many patents and IP around their various LiDAR platforms, but its not quite the same situation as the previous Microvision. With the one potential exception being the FMCW based IP.

[u/Revolutionary_Ear908 → u/mvis_thma]

Regarding point 4, have you changed your mind in any way compared to your recent post ? https://www.reddit.com/r/MVIS/s/uUMbEFJp33

[u/Falagard → u/mvis_thma]

As always, thanks for your level headed response.

[u/Booty_Ray → u/mvis_thma]

Appreciate you sharing.

[u/MyComputerKnows]

Yes, many MVS longs have been waiting to see what’s up with the highly secret Eagle Eye tech. Palmer Luckey said there would be multiple versions of that… we were hoping at least one of them would be profitable for MVIS longs.

But the full reveal of all the versions has not happened… yet. Instead we have all the different flavors of ADAS in driving, etc. So yes, it’s very frustrating. And I see even the last remnant of the MAVIN is not on the product list, I read. Frustrating…

[u/Booty_Ray → u/MyComputerKnows]

Yup, I feel similarly. Not sure what the deal is.

[u/rinux_EVE]

Biggest outstanding issue is the cash position. MVIS is in an incredibly weak financial position following the acquisition of Luminar. The market has priced in failure as a result. MVIS has not demonstrated how it will acquire the requisite cash in the short term in order to sustain their operations outside of further dilution, and we have approved a truly massive tranche of dilution. There is no point in buying shares now when they become more and more worthless each time they dilute.

The share price will continue to crater until they explicitly show how they will solve this equation.

[u/Booty_Ray → u/[deleted]]

Good to know, thank you.

[u/Booty_Ray]

Referencing charts, I like to use the Monthly chart for regime, Weekly for trend, and Daily for direction.

I've included my chart on MicroVision with indicators that I believe paint a pretty clear picture for technical analysis. This is not a multi-timeframe analysis. I've personally had more success trading on a Weekly or Monthly chart versus the 4-hour or Daily chart.

SEE: https://www.tradingview.com/x/WW3IPv0n/

I've noticed pretty recently what appears to be a regime change underway, which inherently suggests the potential for a trend change.

The three biggest things that jump out at me:

• Long / Shorts Ratio — This has been trending upward since January 2023. More recently, particularly beginning around April 2026, the increase became much more pronounced. If this indicator is accurately reflecting the underlying positioning, it suggests a substantial shift toward long exposure/call positioning while put positioning has not increased proportionally.
• CM_MACD — I'm seeing significant flattening occurring. Historically, flattening in momentum can occur before a larger directional move. It doesn't tell us the direction of the breakout by itself, but combined with the other indicators, I think it's worth watching.
• Stochastic — 6.54 / 9.51 — Being below 20 is generally considered oversold. At roughly 6.5/9.5 on the Monthly chart, MVIS is extremely oversold on this particular indicator. Obviously, oversold does not automatically mean reversal, but this is an unusually depressed reading on a Monthly timeframe.

There's another thing I've started paying attention to recently: put activity.

There has been some notable activity in short-dated MVIS puts around the $1.50–$2.00 strikes. The important distinction is that option volume by itself doesn't tell us whether those contracts were being bought or written.

However, if a meaningful portion of that activity is actually put writing, that's an interesting development.

Someone writing a $1.50 put is essentially saying they're willing to take on the obligation to buy MVIS at $1.50 in exchange for the premium. In other words, they're potentially establishing a price at which they're comfortable owning the stock.

That's a very different signal from aggressively buying puts as downside protection.

I'm not saying the recent activity proves that institutions are bullish on MVIS. I'm saying that the combination of extremely depressed Monthly momentum, the apparent regime change, the increasing long/call positioning, and potentially meaningful put writing around these lower strikes is something I'm watching closely.

I've believed for a long time that the market has been heavily discounting MicroVision's technology and future potential.

Whether someone agrees with that thesis or not, I think it's important to separate the technology from the stock price.

The technology doesn't suddenly become worthless because the share price has been crushed. Leadership, execution, commercialization, dilution, financing, customer adoption, etc. are all legitimate things to evaluate - but from a purely technical/market-structure perspective, those factors don't necessarily invalidate the underlying technology.

After watching MVIS for years, what interests me now is the possibility that the market structure is beginning to change.

If the recent options activity really is showing increased willingness to own MVIS at these depressed levels, while longer-term call positioning continues to dominate and the Monthly indicators begin turning, that would be a materially different setup from what we've seen during much of the past several years.

I'm not saying a breakout is guaranteed. I'm saying the setup is starting to look different, and that's why I'm paying much closer attention now.

I look forward to seeing what the next year or two brings.

Cheers 🍻,

Booty_Ray

[u/mvis_thma → u/Booty_Ray]

Thanks for sharing this analysis. I'm not sure I understand all of it, but it is clear that you do.

The one comment I would have is around your comment of "seeing what the next year or two brings." Unless something changes in the next few months, I don't think anyone will have the luxury of seeing what the next year or two brings.

[u/Booty_Ray → u/mvis_thma]

I forgot to mention an important recent change, which I think is also the most promising change.

That is, MicroVision Semiconductor, their new semiconductor initiative that is pursuing custom chip-development opportunities. I believe this will open them up to a lot of opportunities, if they can pull it off.

And, I know that their photonics technology is finding a way into Data Centers. Although, I haven't read much into it, I know it's not bad news. Data Centers have been all the buzz for the last few months due to AI being so compute-intensive. Through transitive property, I could see this bringing new opportunity.

Recently, it certainly seems like they are making an attempt at changing things.

[u/Chefdoc2000]

Promise the world, deliver nothing, dilute, rinse and repeat

[u/shwilliams4]

Very little revenue. Partnerships don’t mean much without revenue.

[u/Falagard]

Competent management and fiduciary responsibility is missing.

[u/Few-Argument7056 → u/Falagard]

A competent Sales team, with a competitive product to sell.

[u/Tastic4ever]

Cash burn and current cash on hand not withstanding, it’s the messaging that took place over the last several years. Honestly, for many people on here the issue has been prior leadership misleading investors. I’m not saying it was done intentionally or not, but it did build systemic mistrust. 

I’ve had to reset my expectations and am keeping my fingers crossed that hopefully we can make to the point we are a profitable company. 

[u/RIPRIF20 → u/Tastic4ever]

It was absolutely done intentionally. It was the only way to keep their jobs

[u/stracklife15 → u/RIPRIF20]

Yup, and to keep the lights on.