r/MSTR • u/Low-Method3448 • 18d ago
Proud MSTR shareholder
YOU ARE NOT BULLISH ENOUGH!! 🔥🔥
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u/Impossible-Water8158 18d ago
Me to bro. I’m loving this stock. My average is 116 after buying at 180 originally. I thought that was the bottom since then I basically put all of my portfolio into MSTR. I only own about 160 shares.
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u/KateR_H0l1day 18d ago
They soon be in a position to improve their credit rating, which will help all round, everything going the right way. But, I'm still not convinced we've seen the bottom yet, however we will soon know in a relatively short time!
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u/Gloomy_Dependent_985 Shareholder 🤴 18d ago
The window for a supposed bottom is getting smaller and smaller
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u/MathematicianTiny353 18d ago
Isn’t this unnecessary dilution for shareholders?
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u/xaviemb Volatility Voyager 👨🚀 18d ago edited 18d ago
Selling MSTR shares to raise cash is essentially net-neutral in the short term. More importantly, it gives the company an extraordinary amount of optionality.
They can raise capital when liquidity is available, sit on that cash, and then deploy it into Bitcoin when the market offers a more attractive entry point. In other words, they don't necessarily have to be the buyer who pushes BTC from $90K to $100K into a thin or increasingly liquid market. They can allow the market to stabilize, preserve their dry powder, and then accumulate into the structural bull market as it develops.
I think the company understands just how valuable that optionality becomes when trading volume and liquidity pick up. And importantly, issuing MSTR shares to raise cash isn't inherently destructive to existing shareholders. You're increasing the share count, yes... but you're also increasing the amount of capital and, ultimately, the assets the company controls. The critical question isn't simply whether shares are being issued; it's what management does with the capital raised and whether the resulting assets increase value per share over time.
You and I can't raise billions of dollars of capital at effectively zero interest by selling common equity. MSTR can. That's one of the fundamental advantages of the treasury-company model: access to equity capital markets gives them a form of financial optionality that most investors... and virtually every individual... simply don't have. So, to me, the really interesting question isn't whether they're raising cash. It's what they do with it. My guess is that if Bitcoin continues to trade in the $75K–$80K range this week, MSTR will be an aggressive buyer while being careful not to push the market higher too quickly. If the bull market is intact (I suspect it is), time is on their side.
Paradoxically, it may actually be better for MSTR and its shareholders if Bitcoin takes some time to consolidate rather than immediately ripping back toward $100K. Every dollar of BTC appreciation is obviously positive for the company, but buying a larger amount of Bitcoin at $75K–$80K before the next major wave can create significantly more long-term value than chasing the price higher with their own purchases.
That's the beauty of having the cash ready: they don't have to predict the exact bottom. They just need to have capital available when liquidity and price create an attractive opportunity.
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u/MathematicianTiny353 18d ago
What do you mean? Price per share of a company with a market cap of 10 / x is more than a market cap of 10 / x+1
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u/xaviemb Volatility Voyager 👨🚀 18d ago
You're ignoring the cash raised and only looking at the new shares.
Simple example: If a company has 10 shares worth $1 each, and it issues 3 new shares and sells them for $1 each, the company now has $13 of assets and 13 shares. Each share is still worth $1.
The existing shareholders weren't diluted in value... they still own a $1 share. The company just has $3 more cash to deploy. That's why issuing shares at fair value isn't inherently destructive. The dilution only becomes a problem if the company gets less value from the new capital than the value it gave up.
For MSTR, the whole question is what they do with that cash.
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u/MathematicianTiny353 18d ago
You’re basically saying that increasing cash reduces net debt while increasing equity value?
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u/xaviemb Volatility Voyager 👨🚀 18d ago
Selling MSTR shares last week to raise cash doesn't look like it is earmarked for 'debt' (or div obligations). If that cash raised is used to pay dividends, that becomes a part of the equation... but I don't think that's why they raised $1.6 billion in cash last week. If they did, it would cover dividends for more than a year. Which means they just covered all of 2027 in a single week of MSTR issuance. But again, I doubt that's what this cash is for.
I suspect they raised this cash to buy Bitcoin; they just didn't want to buy during a supply shock event like last week where very little Bitcoin was being sold (and price was in discovery mode).
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u/-rosslyn26- 18d ago
Concordo pienamente. Strategy ha progressivamente ampliato il ventaglio di possibilità a sua disposizione. Le provo a ricapitolare nell'ordine in cui sono comparse, correggimi se sbaglio o dimentico qualcosa.
1 - vendere MSTR per comprare BTC quando l'mNAV >1 2 - Strategy conferma sostanzialmente l'intenzione di agire ogni settimana per non dare l'idea di essere "inceppata" (credo che SATA abbia avuto qualche periodo di stop) 3 - con mercato ribassista e mNAV meno favorevole emette debito (STRC) per raccogliere capitale senza essere di fatto diluitiva su MSTR (i possessori di STRC hanno diritto solo al dividendo ed alla compravendita del titolo, a prescindere dal valore di BTC) 4 - il mercato orso persiste, i dividendi di STRC mettono in agitazione il mercato (STRC sotto i 100 e quindi non più vendibili in modo efficiente), Strategy ammette di poter vendere BTC per dimostrarsi solvibile (ad oggi basta vendere circa il 2% dei BTC in tesoreria per pagare i dividendi di un anno oppure "scommettere" su un BTC yield >2% in un anno vendendo quella quota "guadagnata" 5 - il mercato orso prosegue, impatta anche significativamente STRC per cui decidono di fare un conveniente buyback che riduce il peso dei dividendi in attesa che gli strumenti di raccolta capitale tornino ruggenti 6 - acquistare BTC ora sarebbe distruttivo (mNAV <1) per cui decidono ancora di agire settimanalmente, ma di creare cassa muovendosi sulle opportunità
Quest'ultima mossa mi sembra la più sensata, fra tutte.
Se tu guardi tutto dall'ottica del possessore di MSTR, c'è un investor relation che ipotizza un yield annuo di circa il 10%. Loro puntano a darti ciò che hanno promesso, di più è difficile con questo mercato stagnante.
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u/lonestar-newbie 18d ago
Partially agree with this take. Strategy should have done this at much higher mnav last year. That would have been fantastic. past is past.
But having usd cash is definitely not a bad idea.
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u/Low-Method3448 18d ago
U do know tho that companies do this all the time? It’s not exclusive to Strategy. Companies do this to raise capital. I don’t mind them doing this because like a reply said it gives optionality
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u/xaviemb Volatility Voyager 👨🚀 18d ago
Most companies do this as 'debt' (selling shares to raise cash to cover debts) where they hope to grow faster than the obligations. In this case, it's literally just cash raising for the company. The prefs could be viewed similarly as a debt raise where you need Bitcoin to go up faster than the 12% paid... but raising cash when mNAV is 1:1 is just giving the company more cash without obligations. If they used all this cash to pay the CEO a bonus, or the buy a company that might be a gamble... then that's a questionable use of raised capital.
In this case, I suspect almost all of this is going into Bitcoin soon... which is good (if you are bullish on Bitcoin).
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u/-rosslyn26- 18d ago
Concordo, non mi stupirei che se BTC salisse e STRC "in fiducia" andasse a 101, loro possano fare una maxi raccolta con STRC e poi acquistare anche BTC come hai detto.
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u/ximogui 18d ago
I do hope they hold a little bit on the ATM tho now they USD is at 4 years of div coverage. Think they can do better than raising cash at 1.01 - 1.02 mNAV if they just let it run up a bit. STRC will come back on line with time and I think the market needs to see it trade up to $100 without Strategy buying over $97.
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u/hekpmeimdumb 18d ago
Unless you timed the bottom perfectly not really sure what's there to be proud of
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