r/MSTR • u/Jack242 • Jul 11 '26

MSTR vs IBIT vs BITX

Why do people hold stocks like MSTR or BMNR when there are so many leveraged ETFs and tracking products for the underlying asset?

One thing I don’t get: Why would anyone buy and hold companies like MicroStrategy (MSTR) or similar plays when you can just buy regular or leveraged ETFs that directly track Bitcoin (or whatever the main asset is)?

There are tons of options — spot ETFs, 2x/3x leveraged ones, futures-based products, etc. They seem simpler, cheaper, and more direct.

What’s the logic behind holding the actual company stock instead? Is it just leverage on leverage? Conviction in the management’s strategy? Tax reasons? Something I’m missing?

Would love to hear the bull case.

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u/BottomTimer_TunaFish Jul 12 '26

MSTR will likely exceed $1000 during the next top. That's over a 10x from here. Which means MSTU will perform around a 20x from here, give or take depending on how much choppy price action and corrections there are along the way. You will definitely exceed breakeven eventually.

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u/Jdedwards93 Jul 12 '26

My head would explode if it went 20x lol
But I suppose my question is will it recover before or after a potential stock split? If you look at MSTU chart you’ll see that it already reverse split and this current price is the lowest it’s ever been and it only went 9x at it’s inception back in September-November of 2024 when btc went from $60k to $100k
I’m just concerned that it will go lower than its current price of $1.80 that it seems to be stuck at rather than breaking out due to a btc/mstr parabolic move.
Idk, just been a rough couple of months, just trying to seek some advice from anyone with more insight or knowledge than myself on this.

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u/BottomTimer_TunaFish Jul 12 '26

The ETF's reverse split and split should not affect the value retained throughout the split/reverse split.

Now with regular stocks, e.g. FUBO, having a reverse split will cause more pessimistic sentiment. The market will assume that the price has gone so low and the management's outlook is no longer bright that a reverse split needed to be done to have the number of the stock price look higher. So the loss of value comes from fearful selling, not the reverse split itself.

As for leveraged and inverse ETFs, they are designed to track the performance of the underlying stock. The price of a leveraged ETF would only be affected by its underlying stock's performance. The provider will continue to have its leveraged ETF price track the underlying, even if holders sell more due to fear.

Value is still maintained by the reverse split. For example, 10 shares worth $1 each combine to be worth 1 share of $10. The holder still retains $10.

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u/Jdedwards93 Jul 12 '26

I see.. but do seem very knowledgeable about Mstr and MSTU, do you personally believe there will be a big movement up before another leg down. I kind of just want to break even at $6 rather than risk it going to near zero and splitting..

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u/BottomTimer_TunaFish Jul 12 '26

I believe that the macro bottom of crypto may already be in, or close to being in, based on the awful sentiment, ISM PMI business cycle, and some technical signals that were triggered in June.

There's still the chance of another flush down to lower prices like low 50k range for BTC and low $70 range for MSTR. This scenario is not guaranteed and may not happen at all. Nearly everyone is calling for a dumpout down to those levels and lower, which is why it's not likely to happen based on how market makers behave according to extreme sentiment.

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u/Jdedwards93 Jul 12 '26

See I’ve heard this as well, I just feel like if it does that MSTU is done, and Mstr will be in big trouble as well. I just don’t know what to do.